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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Yeah it’s good but I’ll be honest I was concerned for a minute. Probably as it’s getting closer getting more nervy.

This should calm the nerves.

879B76FF-5785-4EF2-80C7-62CB06344F3B.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)

Suspect I'm going to hear a lot more about high risk high reward and west - nao... 

Edited by Griff
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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
16 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

You can see a Bucket Like Ridge meaning up to Weeks Of Snow. 

+44 7423 588586 20201224_160343.jpg

You been on the cooking sherry?

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Eagle Eye Maestro

Eagle Eye

Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Storm, drizzle
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
Posted
Just now, Frosty Winter said:

You been on the cooking sherry?

I'm 13

Of course I Have. 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Watch that breakaway low at 192 over N Greenland ascend S/SW,could be a corker of a run this.

gfsnh-0-192.thumb.png.35ab838e3e16581bc516bea281b3ebbe.png

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

GFS has only gorn and blown the bladdy dors orf

image.thumb.png.a027050b1e98fca3cf9c6873bd3d8ed8.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Gfs is an upgrade both on Synoptics with the heights towards Svalbard and slight colder uppers up 198.. great run up to here more than content to bank and take my chances from here... usually pay little attention beyond 200 but with a starting position as below it seems rude not to see what is churned out.

Merry Christmas from 12z GFS

image.thumb.png.425895cfb1e3d4ce62fc1248280f7457.png

 

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Marcus_surfer Rising Star

Marcus_surfer

Posted
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Storms & Snow.
  • Location: Swansea (Abertawe) , South Wales, 420ft ASL
Posted
19 minutes ago, snowice said:

Looking good for east ireland on Monday on 12z

image.png

What sort of wind direction would this be ? North/Northerwesterly? I would assume a Pembrokeshire dangler sort of set up/ with beefy wintry showers?

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

UKMO was OK at 144.

UW144-21.thumb.gif.dfb0a1d86f1063be4633146edfc0b77c.gifUW144-7.thumb.gif.a71e0480e5daee282337be830c5429e2.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.8b90f518bf00d6376bf5659776d5f462.gif

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snowice Seasoned

snowice

Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
Posted
1 minute ago, Marcus_surfer said:

What sort of wind direction would this be ? North/Northerwesterly? I would assume a Pembrokeshire dangler sort of set up/ with beefy wintry showers?

Correct North /North west

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
Just now, Allseasons-si said:

UKMO was OK at 144.

UW144-21.thumb.gif.dfb0a1d86f1063be4633146edfc0b77c.gifUW144-7.thumb.gif.a71e0480e5daee282337be830c5429e2.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.8b90f518bf00d6376bf5659776d5f462.gif

Just for balance, terrible set of charts, winters over / cancelled... 

Jokes obviously, on it's own you'd bank without question. Awesome. 

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Just got in from work and the GFS has presented me with this at 216! 

image.thumb.png.d1982adb1f67e02ad4d396f6cdb3d027.pngimage.thumb.png.c4bedb02e0d19e066ffea053dac1a918.png  

This run has lowered the uppers vs the 6z.  Really excellent run, what a great day for an upgrade. 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Is the GFS 12z Better then the 6z?

In the reliable, here T96:

E3585877-58BA-4AB9-8F8E-C63300C924B4.thumb.png.4fac780a9a436d46f1c106a7b20cd0a6.pngD9B410FC-287E-40B5-B6F1-54B953D8F031.thumb.png.55e7f179e28e23d4ec64ae934f44f86c.png

Prefer the 12s because the low is not so deep.  And at T144:

5602FA0C-51E4-4C29-8CB7-BE3BE2501AE1.thumb.png.cc5557a206ebece93105eee89902633d.png0CC65174-C055-4F59-8485-4F162A96210F.thumb.png.8649afade6074fb4acfba9f6c5bfbb53.png

Again prefer the 12z, more direct northerly.

Edit, due to delay in replying to your post, I think it has become obvious by now 12z is better

Edited by Mike Poole
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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted (edited)

Simply beautiful, really couldn’t ask for anymore than this.

A4C39277-096B-4D19-90F7-0ADF2C863359.png

Edited by Frosty Winter
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

Easterly fetch sir?

 

Don't mind if i do

image.thumb.png.6e9b562b1e0e43ac81a41909c7aa17ac.png

image.thumb.png.38ea2a7a32aefb7b2d302531ac145108.png

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Davegwarn Apprentice

Davegwarn

Posted
  • Location: Chelmsford
  • Location: Chelmsford
Posted
41 minutes ago, jethro said:

Every Christmas I ask Santa for snow, all I really want is to open my curtains and find my garden looking like this again. I think, looking at the blobby, squigley line pictures, this year has come closer to making dreams come true than many a year, but alas not close enough. If you're like me, dreaming of that elusive white Christmas, don't give up....switch to the Julian calendar, celebrate Christmas on the old and orthodox date of January 6th :ball-santa-emoji:

 

 

 

winter garden.jpg

Beautiful picture, how did you get to the bottom of your garden without leaving footprints?

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The Beast From The East Community Regular

The Beast From The East

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
Posted
5 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

GFS has only gorn and blown the bladdy dors orf

image.thumb.png.a027050b1e98fca3cf9c6873bd3d8ed8.png

I'm so Wet right now!!

 

Drying off a bit now though...  Got caught in a shower

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Here's the NMM 12z showing the potential snow event for Monday 28th, some quite heavy snowfall across Wales & S Midlands into CS England.

NMM03.thumb.png.5df32022b9010725f39e1d376109834a.pngNMM06.thumb.png.ab6636df51606dfc1589202706274792.pngNMM09.thumb.png.e042e328197f13ea5b94ea5e73af0b08.pngNMM12.thumb.png.ae3e30cf35805feecdaf4bcf8ca124cf.pngNMM15.thumb.png.3b9c8aaf03971d13c9270f651d879b1e.png

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Cold Winter Night Accomplished

Cold Winter Night

Posted
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, snow, ice. Very hot or very cold.
  • Location: Near Gouda, Holland. 6m Below Sea Level.
Posted

The Christmas card from GFS just came in:

Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year!

Very nice developments in the NE.

 

 

GFS-240 24dec.png

GFS850-240 24dec.png

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BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

Think I’m gonna faint...

A4C39277-096B-4D19-90F7-0ADF2C863359.png

Looking good but lets get there first before we get to excited 

 

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted

Maybe this is what the met office are seeing as we move into early January with their steadfast forecast of a high moving into the UK. 

gfsnh-0-252.png

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