Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[ALL ABOARD]

How beautiful. 

What a great mean. 

[Skullzrulerz]

1 hour ago, That ECM said:

This is an incredible run. it’s a long way out so JFF but what fun

Is there a link to view these charts unfortunately I lost it 

[mountain shadow]

53 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Aside perhaps from this morning....15m asl and I watched flakes fall only an hour ago....

I do wish folk would actually read what I write.

I have distinctly said that lucky areas will be lucky and get snow, but that is more likely the further North you are with altitude.

For the vast majority they are unlikely to see a decent snow fall in the next 10 days.

That is my view and I hope I'm wrong.

[Eagle Eye]

Cold air punching through from Canada in the Arctic Northernly, even though they are VERY Hard to Forecast it is so close to it now that it could happen. Gem is showing an Arctic Northernly which if it happens will bring significant Snowfall. 

[MAF]

So, Met O have now named the weekends heavy winds as Storm Bella. Amber warnings in place for South of UK. once the weekend passes, the cold returns.

I am surprised that the model discussion has not concentrated on the weekend rather than the possible cold spell. 

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

13 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Currently in Braintree Essex, and we have some flakes!

Is Braintree mountainous and in Scotland ? 

[phil nw.]

2 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

How beautiful. 

What a great mean. 

Yes the expected NH pattern on all suites is looking very solid out to day 10.

I think it is safe to say we have a prolonged cold spell ahead of us looking at the 2m temp ens.One from gefs 00z for Warks.and the other the London ones from both 00z ens.runs

Good to hear of a few snow falls today and i would think in the coming days some more will crop up in this ongoing cyclonic polar regime,after Boxing day's milder blip.

In any event it certainly looks cold well into January.It's been a long time since we looked at a proper Wintry forecast going into the New Year. 

I just want to add my appreciation for some great posts from many members but especially the ones who give of their knowledge and time to enrich our experience on here.

I hope everyone can have some happy times over the holiday after this difficult year.

 

 

[Zak M]

I have some flakes too:

I would have thought the GFS control would produce more than a few flakes if it verified.

   

Edited December 24, 2020 by Zak M

[Bartlett High]

4 minutes ago, MAF said:

So, Met O have now named the weekends heavy winds as Storm Bella. Amber warnings in place for South of UK. once the weekend passes, the cold returns.

I am surprised that the model discussion has not concentrated on the weekend rather than the possible cold spell. 

Just saw the forecasts and looks pretty bad for Sth.Wales in particular!

[Vikos]

5 minutes ago, MAF said:

So, Met O have now named the weekends heavy winds as Storm Bella. Amber warnings in place for South of UK. once the weekend passes, the cold returns.

I am surprised that the model discussion has not concentrated on the weekend rather than the possible cold spell. 

I did...

[Mapantz]

3 minutes ago, MAF said:

So, Met O have now named the weekends heavy winds as Storm Bella. Amber warnings in place for South of UK. once the weekend passes, the cold returns.

I am surprised that the model discussion has not concentrated on the weekend rather than the possible cold spell. 

Upcoming weather "events" there will be threads that are opened up for discussion/general chat. As weather preferences differ from member to member, you will find that some posts would be left behind in a thread such as this one, that's perfectly normal.

Regarding Saturday in to Sunday, we have a thread open already for Storm Bella. 

Storm Bella - Atlantic storm 2

 

[Guest]

14 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I do wish folk would actually read what I write.

I have distinctly said that lucky areas will be lucky and get snow, but that is more likely the further North you are with altitude.

For the vast majority they are unlikely to see a decent snow fall in the next 10 days.

That is my view and I hope I'm wrong.

Thank you for providing some clarification to your earlier vague provocations. Now that you have said 'decent snow fall' rather than just 'seeing snow' I can understand a little more where you are coming from If we're talking significant snow then yes it requires luck, altitude and favourable positioning with regards to cold air and weather fronts/disturbances. No doubt some will be pleasantly surprised in the next ten days, others sadly disappointed.

If we're talking about seeing snow, as in flakes falling from the sky, then the chances are of course far higher. I am looking out of the window now and seeing light snow falling from a passing shower that has drifted inland. Forecasts, including my own, only had a 10% chance of precipitation this far inland today and lo and behold I've seen snow already  I'm not even at a particularly high altitude for Sheffield, either. Surprises in store

As @phil nw. says we have a prolonged cold spell ahead of us with tantalising charts far closer than the usual day 10 tease. Good luck to those wanting snow. I am definitely in the camp of hoping for significant falls over the coming week or two. Fingers crossed we get what we want this Christmas! After the year we've suffered through it's the least we deserve 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Steel City Skies

[Allseasons-Si]

Can someone at Meteociel lower there hpa height's chart please,...good grief!!!

 

 

[MAF]

6 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Upcoming weather "events" there will be threads that are opened up for discussion/general chat. As weather preferences differ from member to member, you will find that some posts would be left behind in a thread such as this one, that's perfectly normal.

Regarding Saturday in to Sunday, we have a thread open already for Storm Bella. 

Storm Bella - Atlantic storm 2

 

yes mate, i know there is the other threads for severe weather and the like   . i suppose what i was meaning to say was that how the weekends weather may impact on the remainder of this years weather given that the thread is currently dominated with possible cold spells and i was wondering if once the storm passes to the east what the effect would be to the current synopsis of cold

Edited December 24, 2020 by MAF

[Updated_Weather]

19 minutes ago, Blizzard_of_Oz said:

Is Braintree mountainous and in Scotland ? 

Nope,

Only a few flakes but better than nothing!

[claret047]

21 minutes ago, Blizzard_of_Oz said:

Is Braintree mountainous and in Scotland ? 

No it is monotonous and in Essex.

[Frosty.]

Wow I love the french ..that’s why I say janvier instead of January!..anyway, the ECM 0z ensemble mean suggests cold locking in..and throw away & lose the damn key in a  20 foot deep snowdrift..how does that sound?

[Eagle Eye]

People on the Moans and Ramp Thread ridiculing this thread without knowing what it's about. Time and time again we have said this is discussing the Model outlined not getting a fully Accurate prediction. Outlines have shown to be the best type of prediction more than 3 Days Out and Charts Such As Arctic Oscillation Will and Have Been used for purposes of getting an outline of the Winter and aren't going to be Exactly Correct. 

Within the next 2 Weeks it is predicted that in Eurasia it will carry on going up perhaps more than the Annual Average.

Of Course that is over a large area so we will have to Look at the Arctic Oscillation Charts, Anomoly can be a good show at how different it can Be. 

As you can see there are 2 differential anomoly's but you can spot outliers such as a COLDER Atlantic and Negative Arctic Oscillation Could be a 50/50 Chan e Of it happening most likely a 25% Chance which is PRETTY HIGH COMPARED TO THE ANNUAL AVERAGE. 

The Forecast after 2 Weeks is A Weakened Polar Vortex but of course that could be for a while. 

SEA ICE EXTENT towards EUROPE is more THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE. COULD BE A NEGATIVE AO with the SEA ICE EXTENT LOOKING LESS TO THE NORTH AND MORE IN EUROPE. 

IF WE ASSUME THE 25% Chance then this has a pretty high chance of happening Considering most ANOMOLY'S like this. 

SO remember there is 2 MONTHS of WINTER left perhaps even more still. 

[Matt H]

Missed so many great posts whilst I’ve been out, but my opinion is that if we don’t manage to pull off some decent cold weather in January it’ll be comparable to going into an SCS store and coming out with a fully priced sofa.

[swfc]

4 hours ago, Azazel said:

This thread is completely bipolar and difficult for someone with a very limited understanding to follow.

One post will be talking about potential blizzards but is immediately followed by the next post talking about bbqs and swimsuits. 
 
I understand nothing is nailed on and most of the posting will involve charts deep into the future, but it sure is confusing!

Merry Christmas to all of you anyway and I hope we all see some of the white stuff over the next couple of months.

Thanks and you enjoy your Xmas. You will find it  easier looking at the models ete and making your own conclusions. Remember to keep an eye on the main media outlets ie meto. Sometimes less is more isn't it but hey ho such is this place as tammara often says. Looking without biast there is colder weather on the way but any specifics are impossible to forecast "hence the media keeping quiet" altho they cover there backs in regard to alarmism and over hype. Good sign of the PV being dismantled with some blocking occuring"direction to be determined"but still looks for a change a decent outlook for coldies. Don't get involved in the your right, your wrong game it's futile. Remember it's just weather and after the year we all have had not critical. So enjoy the model output, say or think what you see. Merry Xmas and stay safe

Edited December 24, 2020 by swfc

[Catacol]

47 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I do wish folk would actually read what I write.

I have distinctly said that lucky areas will be lucky and get snow, but that is more likely the further North you are with altitude.

For the vast majority they are unlikely to see a decent snow fall in the next 10 days.

That is my view and I hope I'm wrong.

I am neither north or at elevation....meaning I read exactly what you said and responded in kind.  But regardless of pointless small scale detail arguments this anomaly chart shouts about as loud as you will ever see that a cold meridional pattern is setting in

The 5 day ECM op today shows a cold cyclonic feed from north of Scandinavia, and prior to that northern Russia

and this ECM chart for the lower stratosphere shows all kinds of mayhem and suggests nothing whatsoever linked to a return to westerly influence anytime soon.

It is a very brave call to state that lowland “decent” snow won’t follow from this...though there is time for backward steps. However if you consider what is driving the pattern rather than simply look at the charts as churned out by NWP 2-4 times daily, you’ll quickly grasp that the balance of probability favours a shift to cold and for once we do not need to assume the worst.

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

Is that me or is that an European Ridge have the tides turned between Europe and Siberia. Yeah Right Lol. 

[Paul]

Can we be nice to each other in here please?

It's Christmas, and I don't think it should be a lot to ask that everyone is nice to others in their posts, even if replying to someone who 'dares' to not post about the next ice age coming! Most are already of course, but those of you who are being a bit spiky, please just re-read your posts and consider how you're coming across. 

[Biggin]

1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Can someone at Meteociel lower there hpa height's chart please,...good grief!!!

 

 

I wonder if the government are preparing us for the New Ice Age   Does the pressure usually go off the  scale like this ??

[Gael_Force]

Did someone mention insular 

Cannot remember ever seeing such a perfect bullseye of low heights centred on the BI

Just realised that the ECM charts are clickable for meteograms.

 

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