Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[mountain shadow]

33 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Damn it, just had to cancel my Xmas BBQ. I was promised that the 'uppers' were too marginal for snow. 

Better photos will appear on the Scottish thread later, once it gets a little lighter and the current blizzard conditions subside. 

Promised by whom? That's just not true.

The North of GB with height has always shown as the most likely for snow.

For the rest of us. Very little chance in the next 10 days.

[That ECM]

Just now, mountain shadow said:

Promised by whom? That's just not true.

The North of GB with height has always shown as the most likely for snow.

For the rest of us. Very little chance in the next 10 days.

Next 10 days?  

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Promised by whom? That's just not true.

The North of GB with height has always shown as the most likely for snow.

For the rest of us. Very little chance in the next 10 days.

Look at weather historys post ...

Particularly the ref to uppers.. 

[johnholmes]

No change being suggested in the pattern over the 6-10 day period and similar with the 8-=14 period, meridional is the overall pattern through these periods.

No data available again from EC-GFS but below is the NOAA last evening output

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

[Azazel]

This thread is completely bipolar and difficult for someone with a very limited understanding to follow.

One post will be talking about potential blizzards but is immediately followed by the next post talking about bbqs and swimsuits. 
 
I understand nothing is nailed on and most of the posting will involve charts deep into the future, but it sure is confusing!

Merry Christmas to all of you anyway and I hope we all see some of the white stuff over the next couple of months.

[Griff]

When I mentioned uk snawwwww potential for the next 24 hours, a couple of days ago, I was quickly ridiculed with blank precipitation charts, yet as I said then I'll reiterate now, you have to be in it to win it. Nice isn't it just to be in it for once

[Matt H]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

For the rest of us. Very little chance in the next 10 days.

My prediction is that this will age about as well as milk in the Sahara desert...

[Griff]

Just now, Azazel said:

This thread is completely bipolar and difficult for someone with a very limited understanding to follow.

One post will be talking about potential blizzards but is immediately followed by the next post talking about bbqs and swimsuits. 
 
I understand nothing is nailed on and most of the posting will involve charts deep into the future, but it sure is confusing!

Merry Christmas to all of you anyway and I hope we all see some of the white stuff over the next couple of months.

Yes, agreed. 

[Anthony Burden]

Merry Christmas all,northern blocking very solid low pressure in Atlantic heading south

different due to increased blocking.Snow most definitely on the agenda in places 

over the next 10 days,possibly turning more settled with hard frosts in fantasy island.

Can not get much better.

[Daniel*]

There’s strong similarities between what GFS is modelling and early January 2010 of which was the coldest January in U.K. since 1987 - Greenland blocking really is holy grail.

 

[mountain shadow]

4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

My prediction is that this will age about as well as milk in the Sahara desert...

I'm hoping I'm wrong, believe me.

[Tim M]

Surprised no mention of Saturday night wind storm mentioned by Met Office anywhere that I can see... Though others don't seem to be making so much of wind speeds.

[Astral Goat Juice]

5 minutes ago, Azazel said:

This thread is completely bipolar and difficult for someone with a very limited understanding to follow.

One post will be talking about potential blizzards but is immediately followed by the next post talking about bbqs and swimsuits. 
 
I understand nothing is nailed on and most of the posting will involve charts deep into the future, but it sure is confusing!

Merry Christmas to all of you anyway and I hope we all see some of the white stuff over the next couple of months.

True, it's always been like that, but over the years you get to see which members talk absolute nonsense and which ones don't, and lets be honest, there isn't a single person out there can can categorically state with 100% accuracy what the weather will do over the next 10 days.  

[Skullzrulerz]

So with the next set of runs from the ICON and GFS hopefully they can get back on track after last night's somewhat unnerving trends

 

[Weather-history]

It's the type of set-up that can catch people out make monkeys out of weather forecasters and local authorities

Early January 1994, remember this well. A band of preciptation gave snowfalls to the west and north of London. Caught the forecasters out 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Weather-history

[Man With Beard]

What a mess next week is turning into! Lamppost watching is usually a 2-3 hour activity - next week it looks like a daily occurrence for low altitude areas. The models seem content to hold the level of cold at the dividing line between rain and snow throughout the week. This is one of those cold spells that is really going to test stress levels. It really could be a snowfest anywhere depending on where the little disturbances drift to, and equally could be a damp squib. I'm about 50/50 between the two. I really cannot tell, and I'm thinking there will be daily nowcasts across the country. Some people will get very very lucky next week.

[MAF]

well after many years on this forum, i still cant interpret the model charts. but then i don't bother to either. i have said many many times, you cant forecast past 3 - 5 days with any accuracy at all. so every post interpreting past 5 days, to me, is just not worth looking at. 

we all have our own slant on things, not just weather. an analogy would be that some people like tea and some like coffee. no good trying to tell the other one that their choice is wrong. 

so i will carry on in my way, which is to look at the forecast for the week ahead and each day pop my head out the door and think, they got it right or they got it wrong. but whichever it is, there is nothing on this planet that will change the here and now  

each to their own  

[Ravelin]

Last one from me on this subject as it's dubiously related to model output, but it's still snowing here. I seem to have been in a sweet spot though compared to even other parts of Aberdeenshire, and at 220m ASL I have a built in advantage. 

 

What it does go to show though is that even if the whole of the UK is unlikely to be blanketed in snow, with the current modelling we are in with a chance at least. Only a couple of days ago for my location the forecast 850s were probably marginal, but have trended down. It started snowing with them around -5C, they are forecast to drop to around -8C during today before heading back up, unfortunately. 

[Penrith Snow]

46 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Bit like at the end of February 1989, look how low the pressure (sub 965mb)  is but how slack the gradient is over the UK

Incidentally we had snow here that Friday evening but look at the 850hpas

Actually thats a very good analogy, I remember the day well in Birmingham, wet snow fell all day but didn't settle , however, above 200meters lying snow was widespread and Buxton, Derbyshire had 6 inches.

Similar weather this week I suspect and I think most people will need height to get settling snow.

Andy

[northwestsnow]

14 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Its the type of set-up that can catch people out make monkey's out of weather forecasters and local authorities

Early January 1994, remember this well. A band of preciptation gave snowfalls to the west and north of London. Caught the forecasters out 

 

 

Slack/ poor uppers ..

And still it snowed ...

[Tim Bland]

Loads to keep us entertained next week as MWB says above. At least if the snow ends up missing you on Monday or we get sleet / rain we won’t be too disappointed as we can just look to the following days for the next opportunity. Can’t remember the last year we had a set of ensembles like this with a 30% chance of snow almost every day and uppers well below average for the entire run on almost every ensemble.  ️

[stratty]

2 hours ago, Captain Shortwave said:

ECM wins the “Please circle the U.K.” competition

very low heights, slack flow across most of the U.K. and 850s of -3/4c. A lot of good ingredients there for snow to reach low levels. Beyond that, increasing confidence of getting into a better position longer term with consistency across the board of a high latitudes block forming in the very north of the Atlantic.

Out of interest why is the pressure so slack and over such a wide area within this massive LP? Happy Christmas everyone ️️️

[sheikhy]

16 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

It's the type of set-up that can catch people out make monkeys out of weather forecasters and local authorities

Early January 1994, remember this well. A band of preciptation gave snowfalls to the west and north of London. Caught the forecasters out 

 

 

Yup and thicknesses next week are even lower and 850s couple of degrees colder than the chart you posted above!!all systems go!!

[Sky Full]

46 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Just seem MO extended outlook.. And its totally at odds with what the models we see are telling us.. Still banging the high pressure drum for end of December and new year... Why are they ignoring ECM GFS GEM and the rest. 

Don’t know why that would be.  Here’s the 30th December. (+144h) as shown by all the models this morning:

UKMO.                                                         ECM

    

  GFS.                                                            GEM

     

JMA.                                                               NAVGEM

    

 ICON

 

All agreed - high pressure ridge in the Atlantic to the west, low pressure firmly over the UK.  Could they all be wrong at this stage?  I doubt it.  Of course, after this date it’s anyone’s guess......

Edited December 24, 2020 by Sky Full

[sparky71a]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Yup and thicknesses next week are even lower and 850s couple of degrees colder than the chart you posted above!!all systems go!!

Absolutely, forgive me for a now post on this forum,but it's snowing heavily with me in Middlesbrough right now,after rain and wind all day yesterday as this low now pulls in from the NE on its back edge,the change to snow is so quick,you can only to think something is afoot this year.