Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Vikos]

Good morning and merry Xmas to you guys

Santa already brought me a present in form of those wintry ENS for my part of the continent, lots of snow and conservating cold. An even for mid-term the spread is so minimal as I can't remember to have seen such "in-line" graphs in winter season.

 

Have a good one and most important, stay healthy and safe!

 

 

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

When you actually just stand back for a moment take in what's actually going on with the bigger picture even before the SSW hits and look at where this could actually be heading is quite phenomenal. We are quite literally going to see an obliterated polar vortex at this rate. God only knows what lies ahead through January. We've not been in a position like this for many years.

Yes it's looking promising indeed but the usual caveats apply in the UK. The strat, ssw bit of a throw of the dice but a bonus I guess. Quick note from me. I'm off shortly to Sheffield Town centre. I hand out food to homeless guys and have done for many a year. If you can spend a short time today please trysorry of topic. Merry Xmas

[Griff]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Its not spectacular ...

Its cold, and there will be some snow around I'm sure.

The setup does favour the North as we head into next week.

But yes, I wouldn't define the outlook as spectacular, but its a darn site better then the last few winters ..

I'll gladly take that.

[northwestsnow]

Mean looks good...

[Kasim Awan]

ICON pulls the low to the South East again 28th..

[NewEra21]

14 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

ICON pulls the low to the South East again 28th..

I'd take that all day long, almost looks like a carbon copy from early December for us down here in EA/SE. And a lot of us got settling snow back then in a much more marginal situation.

Edited December 24, 2020 by NewEra21

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, NewEra21 said:

I'd take that all day long, almost looks like a carbon copy from early December for us down here in EA/SE. And a lot of us got settling snow back then in much more marginal situation.

Morning of 28th does look to be a potential prime-time from a parameter perspective.

[NewEra21]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Morning of 28th does look to be a potential prime-time from a parameter perspective.

Yep, looks like somewhere in the country will strike lucky in that timeframe. Just not sure where the sweet spot will be yet though, could easily be the NW, central England or even the SE. Everyone is currently in the game that's for sure!

Edited December 24, 2020 by NewEra21

[Mr Frost]

1 hour ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all!

Latest UKV look ahead to 28/12.

06:00

 

09:00

12:00

Just for fun the lying snow depth chart (mm) for this run out to 29/12 at 03:00.

 

As ever at this range all the above charts...subject to many changes! 

Lively/proper weather here over the next few days!

Have a great Christmas everyone and thank you all for another great year of weather chat - really enjoyed this thread throughout Spring and Summer this year.

Hopefully a cold/snowy Winter 2020/21 ahead!  

All the best!

Here is 15:00 for that day...

 

850hpa temperatures look very marginal - all rain event from North to South! 

All joking aside that could be a very exciting day for radar watching for many of us! 

[nick sussex]

An excellent ECM ensemble mean this morning . Day ten has the high boxed in to the nw and troughing just to the east of the UK.

The ECM op is a bit more complicated with the main block pushed west and another smaller lobe to the north .

The boxed in part is important as it stops the main block escaping towards Canada and avoids a western based negative NAO.

The GFS after toying with that , closes off the escape route with more troughing developing upstream .

Overall an interesting period of weather coming up , not the depth of cold that would warrant my crunchy snow and ice day alert ! But temps below average for an extended period with snow chances . Higher ground favoured but suprises elsewhere can’t be ruled out .

I expect there will be some frustration that we’re not seeing that depth of cold but I suppose it depends on whether you take  a glass half full approach or glass half empty .

Given what could be on offer at least the pattern could evolve more favourably . And you just need a few tweaks to the pattern not a big NH pattern change which is normally what’s needed as coldies sit watching a rampant PV to the north .

 

[Ravelin]

48 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

You have to laugh, polar sourced air and blocking all the way on ECM yet all we get are BBQ uppers and people dusting off their swimsuits rather than sledges!

Damn it, just had to cancel my Xmas BBQ. I was promised that the 'uppers' were too marginal for snow. 

Better photos will appear on the Scottish thread later, once it gets a little lighter and the current blizzard conditions subside. 

[ICE COLD]

The best news for me this morning is the ECM Mean and ENS they look excellent. The only way is down . 
This isn’t the op run it’s a mean

Edited December 24, 2020 by ICE COLD

[chris55]

This very large low centre is remarkable to see!

I can’t remember seeing such a chart before,  it looks strange, with the tight isobars suddenly giving way to a large hole. 
 

The lack of wind and low heights should aid snowfall if areas of ppn are caught in that airmass.

My knowledge of such a set up is zero lol, and not sure how fronts/troughs would sit/behave within such an area. 
 

Will be a nice little bit of learning seeing what happens with it if it verifies as shown. 
 

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by chris55

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

Damn it, just had to cancel my Xmas BBQ. I was promised that the 'uppers' were too marginal for snow. 

Better photos will appear on the Scottish thread later, once it gets a little lighter and the current blizzard conditions subside. 

Maybe that is the answer to my problems then and i should go and live in a shed!

[captaincroc]

Just now, chris55 said:

This very large low centre is remarkable to see!

I can’t remember seeing such a chart before,  it looks strange, with the tight isobars suddenly giving way to a large hole. 
 

The lack of wind and low heights should aid snowfall if areas of ppn are caught in that airmass.

My knowledge of such a set up is zero lol, and not sure how fronts/troughs would sit/behave within such an area. 
 

Will be a nice little bit of learning seeing what happens with it if it verifies as shown. 

Me too, a few times this week I have questioned something and then someone beats me to the questions on here...haha.  I was wondering the same...how can it go literally from a Col to gale force winds a few miles away? What will differentiate between those masses as such? Fronts? 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

2 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

Damn it, just had to cancel my Xmas BBQ. I was promised that the 'uppers' were too marginal for snow. 

Better photos will appear on the Scottish thread later, once it gets a little lighter and the current blizzard conditions subside. 

Indeed and the even colder air hasn’t even arrived yet.  Makes me chuckle 

 BFTP

[seabreeze86]

2 minutes ago, chris55 said:

This very large low centre is remarkable to see!

I can’t remember seeing such a chart before,  it looks strange, with the tight isobars suddenly giving way to a large hole. 
 

The lack of wind and low heights should aid snowfall if areas of ppn are caught in that airmass.

My knowledge of such a set up is zero lol, and not sure how fronts/troughs would sit/behave within such an area. 
 

Will be a nice little bit of learning seeing what happens with it if it verifies as shown. 

Really is a strange chart like you don’t think I’ve seen anything quite like it. Expect some surprises over the next week or so 

[northwestsnow]

I'm going to stick my neck out and say the det was at the top end 850s wise...

[Day 10]

Morning all,

Forget a Christmas Advent Calendar, it's felt like we have all been opening our own Winter Weather Advent Calendar and each day has been even more exciting to open than the last. Day 24 is no different, just excellent output again this morning.

A little perspective on the current charts we are seeing, just look what we are usually used to seeing compared to now.

2015

2020/21?

Are we creeping into one of those old style talked about Winters?

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Day 10

[ScottSnow]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Indeed and the even colder air hasn’t even arrived yet.  Makes me chuckle 

 BFTP

It’s snowing here in Gateshead this morning and lying. Hopefully a sign of things to come. The  models this morning maintain the cold theme.

[Weather-history]

13 minutes ago, chris55 said:

This very large low centre is remarkable to see!

I can’t remember seeing such a chart before,  it looks strange, with the tight isobars suddenly giving way to a large hole. 
 

The lack of wind and low heights should aid snowfall if areas of ppn are caught in that airmass.

My knowledge of such a set up is zero lol, and not sure how fronts/troughs would sit/behave within such an area. 
 

Will be a nice little bit of learning seeing what happens with it if it verifies as shown. 
 

 

Bit like at the end of February 1989, look how low the pressure (sub 965mb)  is but how slack the gradient is over the UK

Incidentally we had snow here that Friday evening but look at the 850hpas

Edited December 24, 2020 by Weather-history

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, KTtom said:

As its Christmas, lets chuck a ECM day 10 chart into the mix! 

We really are in a no lose situation as soon as we get some sort of block to the north, even if the day 9 chart is a little west as SWFC mentions, the Atlantic lows are still forced south and this allows another block to set up due north of the UK... Some lively weather to come over the next few days and then getting very interesting snow-wise during the turn of the year.

 

 it’s interesting you talk about snow at the turn of the year and yet looking at the Met office extended outlook they are having none of it regarding snow potential however fascinating model watching at the moment. on another note mate I wish all of you at netweather including the staf I hope you all have a good and enjoyable day tomorrow with your loved ones it has been a very difficult year for every one of us The grief the heart takes many of us may have suffered I hope 2021 will bring a much needed snowy weather and a light at the end of this Covid tunnel. have a good day everyone let’s hope the upcoming days will throw many many snowy surprises at all of us thank you.

[Methuselah]

Merry Christmas, all... And, what a day to see an 00Z run so packed with potential:

    

    

    

    

Well if that mishmash doesn't deliver, I'll be a monkey's uncle! 

 

[ScottSnow]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Merry Christmas, all... And, what a day to see an 00Z run so packed with potential:

    

    

    

    

Well if that mishmash doesn't deliver, I'll be a monkey's uncle! 

 

Yes the potential is there looking at the charts. As always higher northern areas have the best chance but definitely the potential for some lowland snowfall.

[Shere Khan]

Loving these charts at the moment. Nothing majorly cold in the immediate time frame but mostly a firm agreement from the models that a block shall remain in place to the west. This will allow cold pooling to build across central areas over the coming week. I just hope this will coincide with an icy surprise in early jan

Edited December 24, 2020 by Shere Khan