Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Mair Snaw]

Morning all. Look what the lovely weather did... Snaw on xmas eve, looking forward to another great day here in the thread. Feels like Christmas  

[That ECM]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Morning. Yes it's OK but a bit to far west imo. Bit of a throw of the dice going further into fi. Shows how good the projected charts have been recently when this is a slight downgrade. That said it's still fluid and has the output gets nearer tends to moderate. 

Much to be decided but a great watch and cold is theme.

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

Morning. Yes it's OK but a bit to far west imo. Bit of a throw of the dice going further into fi. Shows how good the projected charts have been recently when this is a slight downgrade. That said it's still fluid and has the output gets nearer tends to moderate. 

You took the words out of my mouth, however the good news it allows for Christmas presents over the next few days in the form of plenty of room for improvements and upgrades! 

[Chesil View]

I was just about to comment that it all looked a bit west based at 216 on the ECM when up pops the Iceland high at 240. All roads lead to cold it seems.

[Met4Cast]

Very odd looking day 10 ECM chart, but the vortex has been absolutely obliterated.

Good to see the GFS back to Greenland blocking as well!

[Matt H]

GEFS 00z mean at day 10 is another beauty!

Great to see that the ECM saved itself from a west based negative NAO developing at day 10 with a wedge developing over Iceland. Would be ideal to see the main ridge over Greenland correct further east again in future runs.

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[KTtom]

As its Christmas, lets chuck a ECM day 10 chart into the mix! 

We really are in a no lose situation as soon as we get some sort of block to the north, even if the day 9 chart is a little west as SWFC mentions, the Atlantic lows are still forced south and this allows another block to set up due north of the UK... Some lively weather to come over the next few days and then getting very interesting snow-wise during the turn of the year.

 

[Griff]

Just now, Broadmayne blizzard said:

I was just about to comment that it all looked a bit west based at 216 on the ECM when up pops the Iceland high at 240. All roads lead to cold it seems.

I'd say not nailed yet, it could swing back and forth before we know. 

[Mr Frost]

Morning all!

Latest UKV look ahead to 28/12.

06:00

 

09:00

12:00

Just for fun the lying snow depth chart (mm) for this run out to 29/12 at 03:00.

 

As ever at this range all the above charts...subject to many changes! 

Lively/proper weather here over the next few days!

Have a great Christmas everyone and thank you all for another great year of weather chat - really enjoyed this thread throughout Spring and Summer this year.

Hopefully a cold/snowy Winter 2020/21 ahead!  

All the best!

Edited December 24, 2020 by Mr Frost

[northwestsnow]

EC gets a

Not entirely sure where the word downgrade is coming from...

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

Morning all!

Latest UKV look ahead to 28/12.

06:00

 

09:00

 

12:00

 

Just for fun the lying snow depth chart for this run out to 29/12 at 03:00.

 

As ever at this range...subject to many changes! 

Have a great Christmas everyone and thank you all for another great year of weather chat - really enjoyed this thread throughout Spring and Summer especially! Winter obviously the best season of the year! 

All the best!

IMBY Monday 6am !!!

Edited December 24, 2020 by northwestsnow

[Griff]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC gets a

Not entirely sure where the word downgrade is coming from...

 

1 minute ago, swfc said:

It was in regard to the blocking being less robust and to far west

I'm going to need walking through this as to my mind on face value things don't look spectacular. 

Very interested to learn why and how there's potential. Ta

 

 

[carinthian]

Christmas Greetings to all. Not the best start to the ski-ing season in the Austrian Alps with cloud and mild conditions but snow expected in the next 24 hours, so a white Christmas beckons. The chart below from ECM was always the favoured position from the team for the Greenland low to be at 144t.  Latest snow model parameter results now indicate 60 % probability of  snow in the British Isles by the last few days of the year with the North and West being the most prone regions. As we move into the New Year the snow risk increases towards the South and East of the Kingdom (30%) at day 10. As explained yesterday , the fine mesh model used for snowfall prediction and rates of snowfall can only really come into force with-in 48 hours  and will take into consideration  height , and distant from sea in its calculations which is always a complication for the British Isles.

C

[swfc]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

I'm going to need walking through this as to my mind on face value things don't look spectacular. 

Very interested to learn why and how there's potential. Ta

 

I presume he's referring to the area of low pressure over the UK. Low dew points, low 500mb,slack air flow. Conjusive with snow even with moderate 850s 

[Ice Day]

11 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC gets a

Not entirely sure where the word downgrade is coming from...

Absolutely, for my money there's no 'downgrade', we're just starting to see some different solutions for days 8+.  I'm really enjoying the chaotic FI charts now being spat out by the GFS and ECM.  They're really struggling to find consistency which says to me that events 'up top' are somewhat extreme.  

I mentioned last night that maybe we're becoming a bit numb to charts such as the above, these are heady times and as long as the NH profile remains so distressed it just has to be a matter of time for the UK to get something really notable.  And if we don't, well it's been a helluva ride!

Anyway, Happy Christmas Eve to all, work beckons 

[Griff]

4 minutes ago, swfc said:

I presume he's referring to the area of low pressure over the UK. Low dew points, low 500mb,slack air flow. Conjusive with snow even with moderate 850s 

I guess despite some exemplary posts over the week about fundamental requirements for snawwwww my mental picture unconsciously looking for darker blues on 850s... Yes I know. 

[jules216]

Happy Christmas to all dear netweather European friends and followers.

[sheikhy]

All i can say is wow!!!!!bring it on!!!

[sheikhy]

I say wow but that west based nao still a danger!!!!keep an eye out on it!!!!!downgrade on snow amounts on ecm!!hopefully changes back again!!nothing substantial yet!!

[swfc]

32 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Morning all. Look what the lovely weather did... Snaw on xmas eve, looking forward to another great day here in the thread. Feels like Christmas  

I will find you and I will kill you!!! Haha great picture and enjoy it..thsts more than I saw all last winter. Hopefully the new year may bring a bit of snow down here PV demise all being well, Heighths in the correct area and of course a bit of luck. Merry Xmas

[feb1991blizzard]

You have to laugh, polar sourced air and blocking all the way on ECM yet all we get are BBQ uppers and people dusting off their swimsuits rather than sledges!

[Kasim Awan]

I love it when things go right. Snow down to sea level this morning parts of the NE as hinted at in my earlier snowfall assessment for today. Anyway, enough banging my own drum. Cracking 00z output too.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[swfc]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

I say wow but that west based nao still a danger!!!!keep an eye out on it!!!!!downgrade on snow amounts on ecm!!hopefully changes back again!!nothing substantial yet!!

It's ok on ec at day 10 but it is a bit of a issue if it's to far west. Lots to be resolved either way going forward but not in a bad place obv. Merry Xmas

[DanDorsetUK]

When you actually just stand back for a moment take in what's actually going on with the bigger picture even before the SSW hits and look at where this could actually be heading is quite phenomenal. We are quite literally going to see an obliterated polar vortex at this rate. God only knows what lies ahead through January. We've not been in a position like this for many years.

[northwestsnow]

34 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

I'm going to need walking through this as to my mind on face value things don't look spectacular. 

Very interested to learn why and how there's potential. Ta

 

Its not spectacular ...

Its cold, and there will be some snow around I'm sure.

The setup does favour the North as we head into next week.

But yes, I wouldn't define the outlook as spectacular, but its a darn site better then the last few winters ..