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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

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By Met4Cast
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chionomaniac Maestro

chionomaniac

Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
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Posted

Take the last two GFS runs. Combine together and find the middle ground. And enjoy.

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted

ICON total snow accumulation out to 120h.  Merry Christmas all.

I think somewhere could do really well..

Note: this is not to be taken literally at all. It merely highlights that the Hi Res are in agreement with the snowfall assessment, in that there is *potential* for significant snowfall to modest elevations. The main factors here are time of day, elevation, wind speed/dir and precipitation dynamics. Get just a couple of those optimal and you will bank.

The reason why the ICON is like this is because it pulls a shortwave low off to the south east of the UK (Dover). Air is always coldest on the northern side of the low. This is somewhat credible given the ECM / GFS also forecast it to head south. In terms of a probabilistic forecast, I'd say this scenario has around a 10% chance of verifying. A weaker low with a less optimal position would be more favored in statistics, and this would still produce a few cm locally with the added dose of marginality present. Those are my thoughts anyway.

image.thumb.png.9879ad3776bf3f5bb58ca02d25d96463.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Nice,i would settle with that with snow showers blowing in off a relatively warm north sea,could be some huge convection going off there☺️

gfs-0-258.thumb.png.b26d41a5530fb3b230bcc5ca99155688.pnggfs-1-258.thumb.png.4e68aa0989d97f09ed41158b27d73a37.pnggfs-2-258.thumb.png.45da7ea97a10e61d8f2cafcf0b993278.png

of course this run is totally different from the earlier 12z but an upgrade all the same.

 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
43 minutes ago, Day_9 said:

Yea but i can’t see where to read an 850 chart, or a 500 for that matter.  

You can access models here on net weather, just go to home and then find charts and models, I think.

Or some use meteociel.

6554b6be8c0d829a8bf63ae0c82cf121_link.pn

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR
Meteociel propose de manière régulière le modèle à maille fine HARMONIE 0.03° de KNMI (météo néerlandaise) sur 2 zones (Belgique, Pays-Bas)

 

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Downburst Seasoned

Downburst

Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
Posted
11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I'll wager you might end up being quite surprised just how much snow we will wrangle out of set-up like the one we are seeing from the 28-29th.

Alot will depend on LP/frontal placement, but somewhere could get lucky if it sets up well and does a small cyclonic loop around the bigger LP flow. If that happens somewhere will end up with 15-20cms. It won't be a large area of snow, but could be quite decent fall if we get lucky.

I’m with you, I get it that there is a chance of snow for some small area, but perhaps because it’s Christmas the ramping some are doing is ruining the MODEL thread. How about folks such as you forecasting reality based on the models. Let’s get a grip

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
Just now, Steve Murr said:

GFS for the scrapper after 192. 

An octopus jet doesnt exist...

5169E54D-DB81-4E49-B8E9-102AA13C4051.thumb.png.ca0c9605cd5eb7474cf1ad30e7846dca.png

I thought this too, seems to have lost the plot after a while 

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I don't want to jinx it because the GFS will find a way, but I can't see any realisitic way from 228hrs position that we can avoid getting that cold air right over our shores. 

Well we are forecast to stay on the cold side of the jet regardless but I don't see any significant cold, I have not seen one output where you would go wow in terms of depth of cold and before anyone mentions regarding the pressure pattern then yes that is impressive and amplified but it what matters on the ground that counts. 

And 18Z also has the mild sector within the low growing with positive uppers entering Scotland briefly even. 

Like I say, the ECM PPN chart a member posted with snow wrapped around the low and rain where there is wind is what I expect from this set up. Transient snowfall at best. 

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Alpine glow Enthusiast

Alpine glow

Posted
  • Location: Brighton
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Brighton
Posted
23 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Yep block has been too far north and west last run. So slightly more east and south better for us

Amazing - finally I feel festive!  Very nostalgic - this is why I love the chase!

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted

Best run I've seen yet for the SE and South go GFS18z bring those Beasterlies

Screenshot_20201223-224758_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20201223-224717_Samsung Internet.jpg

Screenshot_20201223-224703_Samsung Internet.jpg

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ALL ABOARD Rising Star

ALL ABOARD

Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
Posted

This run is a perfect example of the GFS latching onto a background signal running with it.... 

And then realising there's no strength in the jet to move the block.

The Atlantic is dead. 

Long live the cold. 

gfsnh-0-288.thumb.png.15fa9b1d7879f328ff2b399274bee49b.png

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Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Big change at D10 on this run. Much flatter upstream...lost the amplification. Could possibly end with Atlantic HP pushed SE with the jet over the top.

It just had to be my luck when I decided to jump board typical

 

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

Anecdotally the chatter today from across the pond is for blocking signal in the start of January to be further north than shown in FI... 

A lot to be resolved but all in all an improvement as this week progresses. 

 

gfsnh-0-282__01.png

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Day_9 Enthusiast

Day_9

Posted
  • Location: Cardiff
  • Weather Preferences: Day 10
  • Location: Cardiff
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Noones mentioned 1962 or 1947 yet ☃️

The uppers aren’t cold enough mun, come on, keep up! 

Edited by Day_9
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seabreeze86 Accomplished

seabreeze86

Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
Posted

This is the GFS saying. Right people I haven’t got a scooby 

036A21A5-677D-4778-AA7B-393177936937.png

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It just had to be my luck when I decided to jump board typical

 

Welcome to model watching.

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ICE COLD Maestro

ICE COLD

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
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Posted

Doesn’t matter with these runs at the minute whether it’s a big block , small block , wedgey block they all = cold . But people still moan that it’s not that cold and snowy . 

15FC9158-8BDD-4068-8A34-65642B7B1A37.png

EA600CE6-F963-41DB-BCEB-5DF5B18DF4AF.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Griff said:

Anecdotally the chatter today from across the pond is for blocking signal in the start of January to be further north than shown in FI... 

A lot to be resolved but all in all an improvement as this week progresses. 

 

gfsnh-0-282__01.png

 

5 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

This run is a perfect example of the GFS latching onto a background signal running with it.... 

And then realising there's no strength in the jet to move the block.

The Atlantic is dead. 

Long live the cold. 

gfsnh-0-288.thumb.png.15fa9b1d7879f328ff2b399274bee49b.png

But this would do! 

 

gfsnh-1-306 (1).png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)

If anyone says the gfs 18z is rubbish,....then they need to go to .....

Dominic-Cummings-specsavers-1024x538.thumb.jpg.79cba327c25819e386e5723985068a2e.jpg

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo
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