Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Scott Ingham]

A lot of talk about a West Based Nao but i really feel nearer to time well see this considerably East of forecast position to a point where were looking between Greenland and Iceland. 

Looking at repeating tropical patterns all ive seen is for amp to set up further East with each attempt.

Im a big fan of repeating patterns within a give season and if it continues with changing wavelengths into January i still call Griceland over West Greenland.

As ever we shall see.

No support atm if anything the trend is furthrt West but predicitons are there to be shot at and ive got big shoulders!

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

ECM clusters good to excellent. 

T192-T240 and T264-T360:

I’m surprised that there is only 1 cluster in the T192-T240 period, the means on Meteociel didn’t suggest that, maybe ‘other’ reason.  

But the later clusters, well high lat blocking party time, any which road.  

Cluster 2 nearer to my thinking

[Kentspur]

12 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

Stunning charts, just stunning. No point fixating on the details, it will of course change.

What a thing of beauty this is...

We've had the dog the duck the Eagle and now I'm naming this ECM beaut the  

[sheikhy]

The talk on here for the next few days will be of the  potentail west based nao!!!how often do you see a cold and snowy pattern set between now and 300 hours and then we are all talkin about what is going to happen 300+ hours away instead!!such confidence in the forecast for the next 14 days at least!!!

[Howie]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

The talk on here for the next few days will be of the  potentail west based nao!!!how often do you see a cold and snowy pattern set between now and 300 hours and then we are all talkin about what is going to happen 300+ hours away instead!!such confidence in the forecast for the next 14 days at least!!!

Very true, I should take my own advice lol

[Griff]

10 minutes ago, Singularity said:

I recall Tamara saying in 2018-19 that a Greenland block that’s partially over Canada is more likely to reach far east  enough to put the UK in a cold airmass during Dec-Jan than in Feb-Mar. To do with seasonal wavelengths... though I think a fully west-based NAO could still be trouble unless it was VERY negative (does happen!).

Does this help, and yes I appreciate this isn't the twitter thread, it might take the rest of January to catch up on all of today's posts. 

 

[Frosty.]

Tonights Ecm 12z ensemble mean continues to trend colder next week and beyond...I kid you not!..I’m seriously thinking there could be a snow fest for parts of the u k during the next few weeks, synoptically, it’s a very impressive mean (especially early janvier)..too add too all the other stellar output today, and recently!...and I’m sure tomorrow, etc..etc..

let the good times roll! ️  

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

The talk on here for the next few days will be of the  potentail west based nao!!!how often do you see a cold and snowy pattern set between now and 300 hours and then we are all talkin about what is going to happen 300+ hours away instead!!such confidence in the forecast for the next 14 days at least!!!

This west-based -NAO thing is irritating me too.  It is of course a possibility that the low pressures get so far west under the block that it means we get SW’lys, but I think it is kind of missing the point.  To get snow, proper blizzard  snow, not just cold and frost and freezing fog, you need low pressure (it seems obvious) and so there is that high risk / high reward balance of where that low pressure goes.  Many blizzards in this country will have been close but not quite west-based -NAO scenarios.  

I think the upcoming spell has potential for snow, not deep cold, initially, so that one of the risks we take.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

This is a BOOM chart folks...look at Iceland...plunging SSE deep cold low

prolonged cold and a snow fest...never mind the snow for Highland Scotland DAFT posts

BFTP

Edited December 23, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[chionomaniac]

The GFS always pushes cold shots further East. Until we want it to. Probably. 

[Daniel*]

Not bad for London and room for upgrades.

 
Here’s Manchester looking more legitimate up north. If you live on a hill your snow will not be going anywhere in a hurry......

[Updated_Weather]

This was Matt Hugo reply to MetO suggesting that high pressure was more likely around new year.. 

I mean I get they have to be cautious but lie about something that isn’t there? 

[Man With Beard]

Maxima for England in the coming days according to ECM, excluding coastal and mountainous regions (No real experience of their accuracy in winter)

Fri 25th 2-4C

Sat 4-10C

Sun 2-6C

Mon 2-6C

Tues 2-5C

Wed 2-5C

Thurs 3-5C

Fri 1st 2-4C

So chilly for some time.

 

[northwestsnow]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not bad for London and room for upgrades.

 
Here’s Manchester looking more legitimate up north. If you live on a hill your snow will not be going anywhere in a hurry......

Owwww!!

Thats for Manchester which will mean you can knock a degree off the projected temps for my location up the road!!

And possibly another degree  for @frosty ground up the road from me at 300m...

Just need some snow !

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Owwww!!

Thats for Manchester which will mean you can knock a degree off the projected temps for my location up the road!!

And possibly another degree  for @frosty ground up the road from me at 300m...

Just need some snow !

As a rule of thumb if you are talking Manchester City Centre, add loads on the temps compared to everywhere else, its all these buildings, its the UHI effect, Salford, right next to Manchester City Centre, minus double digit uppers Feb 09 - a dusting which had melted straight away followed by very light drizzly sleet for the next day!

-12c uppers can you believe it.

Edited December 23, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[username home]

12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Maxima for England in the coming days according to ECM, excluding coastal and mountainous regions (No real experience of their accuracy in winter)

Fri 25th 2-4C

Sat 4-10C

Sun 2-6C

Mon 2-6C

Tues 2-5C

Wed 2-5C

Thurs 3-5C

Fri 1st 2-4C

So chilly for some time.

 

chilly but not really cold

[Mike Poole]

13 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

This was Matt Hugo reply to MetO suggesting that high pressure was more likely around new year.. 

I mean I get they have to be cautious but lie about something that isn’t there? 

It’s not just me then!  

[phil b]

17 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not bad for London and room for upgrades.

 
Here’s Manchester looking more legitimate up north. If you live on a hill your snow will not be going anywhere in a hurry......

Any for Brum @Daniel*

Edited December 23, 2020 by phil b

[Allseasons-Si]

20 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

This was Matt Hugo reply to MetO suggesting that high pressure was more likely around new year.. 

I mean I get they have to be cautious but lie about something that isn’t there? 

they did change there wording earlier though

anyway back to MOD...

the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb outlook from cpc still showing a meridian flow N-S with +ve heights into S Greenland with some sort of link up with Urals/Russian block with marked trough migrating south of the UK in the extended with huge PV lobe still over E Asia/W Pacific

latest NAO/NO still trending neg values too

a tweet from M.Hugo...

 

certainly an interesting period coming up in the next 7-10 days 

Edit:forgot to add that not one gefs member has high pressure over the UK at day ten

Edited December 23, 2020 by Allseasons-si
added more info

[Cheshire Freeze]

Can't really add more to what people have already said. Looking like a risky but potentially fruitful pattern setting up towards new year. LP potentially meeting Arctic air from the N. 

Certainly Midlands northwards in that sort of scenario should be in with a shout- those just to the N side of the boundary could see repeated significant falls...

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 12 z ensemble mean

A really good mean and trending colder in the medium term. . And the Op was warmer than the mean all the way from 28th onwards. Good times ahead for coldies

[Mike Poole]

Better ICON 18z, here T120 compared to T126 on 12z:

Centre of low is further east and better ridging into Greenland.  But to be honest, this model is playing catch-up!

[Scandinavian High.]

16 minutes ago, username home said:

chilly but not really cold

As long it’s cold enough for some snow  I think most will be happy..

Edited December 23, 2020 by Scandinavian High.

[northwestsnow]

25 minutes ago, username home said:

chilly but not really cold

It will only be 2/3 above zero and sub zero by night locally,if those temps are accurate.When we factor is miniscule solar input as well).

Possibly for 5 days or more,  thats a cold spell in my book...( esp in a warming world).

Edited December 23, 2020 by northwestsnow

[North East Blizzard]

18 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

they did change there wording earlier though

anyway back to MOD...

the latest from cpc 6-10/8-14 day 500mb outlook from cpc still showing a meridian flow N-S with +ve heights into S Greenland with some sort of link up with Urals/Russian block with marked trough migrating south of the UK in the extended with huge PV lobe still over E Asia/W Pacific

latest NAO/NO still trending neg values too

a tweet from M.Hugo...

 

certainly an interesting period coming up in the next 7-10 days 

Edit:forgot to add that not one gefs member has high pressure over the UK at 

That Greenland block is insane, has to be the form horse now. His response tweet was due to a video released by the met today that mentioned high pressure over the UK, seemed to contradict their text forecast and pretty much every model we see. I can only guess Glosea was showing something different, who knows, could be right but looks unlikely now.