Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Notty]

ECM 12z - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=216&mode=1&map=0&type=0&archive=0

GFS Op 12z - http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=216&mode=0

Not vastly different at t + 216 ...

Storm off the eastern seaboard headed our way for good or bad I expect.

[mother nature rocks]

How sad is it that we have a top class weather forum where most of us have a love of the weather but unfortunately a few seem to be happy with just rain or westerly winds while the rest enjoy the chase of other weather forms. It really is quite pathetic that a few have to spoil the fun for the rest of us!!
 

Anyway, the GFS is still looking fantastic as are the EC and the UKMO to a certain extent- we’ll certainly better than the 0z. 
 

Sorry to moan but it’s really grating on me!!

MNR

[Paul]

Latest blog from @Nick F - well worth a read:

Cold spell Christmas Eve to New Year, Sudden Stratospheric Warming possible January

WWW.NETWEATHER.TV

---

Analysis of upcoming colder and wintry period of weather for the UK arriving on Christmas Eve and persisting until the New Year. Also a look at the strengthening signals from models of a Sudden Stratospheric...

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Really nice looking ECM,and the good trends continues..@Winterdarkness,our strat guys and gals are top notch.. and I dont care if its...displaced...misplaced,or completely lost in translation.one thing for sure is...its under immense pressure.and it must feel like a turkey does,when they've caught Bernard Matthews grinning at em..onwards and upwards  

..

 

 

 

 

[Matt H]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Someone will come on here in a minute and say that is zonal

@terrier  

[northwestsnow]

EC is the kind of run whereby places getting a covering might see it hang around for a wee while ..

Will be cold under that stagnant air and little solar input  .

[Kasim Awan]

58764th Northerly incoming

[winterof79]

3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

@terrier  

Took the words and all that...... 

[Froze were the Days]

and a trough coming up from the south west...could be akin to GFS with a battle royal taking place, at a guess after 240z

[SLEETY]

16 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Aidan from MetO responded to my tweet regarding where they see High pressure more likely.

Why not mention the slightly less likely option then.

Ecm is sensational run,best so far,and something even colder looks likely coming down from the Arctic,time to order a new sledge yet?

Edited December 23, 2020 by SLEETY

[Allseasons-Si]

Late to the party...

ECM and gfs at 240...beautiful

the ECM looks like it would reload from the N/NW too,outstanding output and it's nice to here that the Meto are slightly backing away from the UK high now too.

 

[TSNWK]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

58764th Northerly incoming

Do you think so? I was thinking it was going down the west based nao as per gfs has latched onto from around 240ish

welcome you thoughts to counter and where you seeing the northerly

[HammerJack]

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Someone will come on here in a minute and say that is zonal

It is a bit, and I suspect the uppers won’t be up to much either!!!

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Do you think so? I was thinking it was going down the west based nao as per gfs has latched onto from around 240ish

welcome you thoughts to counter and where you seeing the northerly

How is that a west based NAO?  

[Mr Frost]

Wee look ahead to the 28/12...

Latest UKV precipitation type snapshots below:

06:00

 

09:00

 

12:00

 

Still five days away - subject to much change at this range!

Great to see a bit of wintry weather showing for you ladies and gents down South! 

If we can get a fairly widespread snow event (even a dusting) within the next seven/ten days for the UK/Ireland...it would calm down the nerves in this thread a wee bit with regards to the rest of Winter! 

All the best! 

[winterof79]

#cactol surely that's good for the split with the Russian High. 

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Forget a meto update we need a @Steve Murr update

Eve- Lurking > but busy as well!

The last 48 hours as seen nearly everything work more favourably for the UK in terms of snowfall potential in the week then the potential for a sustained cold spell from the North.

The deep low & associated chunk of vortex shearing away over the UK looks to take a more Easterly track bringing the potential for snow down the spine of the UK. ( maybe not IMBY but poss some flurries )

The real interest in a genuine Greenland high ( last seen 2010 ) has also grown considerably today with all the means heading towards good agreement.

If we look at historic failures V 2010 which had a Gh modelled at day 8-9 & never swayed once V the outputs that swing from blocking to non blocking then today for me seems to earmark the fork in the road towards the consistency displayed by 2010 > * with the caveat that the means are not quite there yet *
 

The absence of cold air isnt a concern, but a mere annoyance > The cold air would soon arrive south out of Greenland day 9/10 onwards..

Personally my only concern is a slightly west based GH which would impact the SE most as the cold may struggle to get here -

Other than that the most positive we could be at this stage & thats all before a stonking SSW > remember its not the technical numbers that count but the 10HPA blocking driving Easterlies..

One area to watch for all is the enhancement & development of the troughing out east of the Greenland shelf which will scoop up a ton of cold air !

S

[Paul_1978]

30 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm sure a couple of mountain tops around Scotland will have a blast with all that snowfall !!

Meanwhile it will cold rain for the rest

So you keep telling us several times a day, everyday. To be honest you’d be better off in the Moans thread bud. 

[Kasim Awan]

15 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Do you think so? I was thinking it was going down the west based nao as per gfs has latched onto from around 240ish

welcome you thoughts to counter and where you seeing the northerly

It's not a classic west based -NAO. There is a Negative NAO profile on the eastern side of the "Griceland" high around Ireland so it is more a central based negative NAO imo. The positive out of the low over GL is that it is programmed to reconnect to the low near the Azores and in that process it will likely dive south and produce a northerly. This is now a recurring pattern in the output.

Edited December 23, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Day 10]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Someone will come on here in a minute and say that is zonal

Lol yeah, North Easterly Zonal. 

[northwestsnow]

At 162 hrs, according to weather.us,

IMBY I'm seeing 22 in farenheight for my location...

I'm not entirely sure that's right!

That would equate to -5.5 Celsius? 

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by northwestsnow

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's not a classic west based -NAO. There is Negative NAO profile from the eastern side of the "Griceland" high so it is more a central based negative NAO imo. The positive out of the low over GL is that it is programmed to reconnect to the low near the Azores and in that process it will likely dive south and produce a northerly. This is now a recurring pattern in the output.

Thank you..

[ICE COLD]

Honestly I’ve absolutely loved this place for the last week it’s been booming in here . Why would it not when we have these amazing charts churned out day after day . But still this goes on it drives me mad and ruins this place . Well that’s my little moan over so let’s just look at these nutty charts again . 
 

A mix of ECM and GFS -

[Anthony Burden]

Both big boys looking the same Synoptics cold very cold,snow looking very possible 

in many places.Come Tuesday low single figures in temperatures the best you will

receive and where snow is lying freezing more likely for a considerable time.Winter proper.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

It's not a classic west based -NAO. There is a Negative NAO profile on the eastern side of the "Griceland" high around Ireland so it is more a central based negative NAO imo. The positive out of the low over GL is that it is programmed to reconnect to the low near the Azores and in that process it will likely dive south and produce a northerly. This is now a recurring pattern in the output.

Love to be in your location, pasting with no thaws nailed on