Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[tight isobar]

When the American-new dats mod @GFS is so steadfast-signal scoring.. we don’t need to look to other agencies..@trust me .  Good in ere .. innit . Gfs.. imo getting things correct!!

[Doctor96]

as a real amateur but watching charts for 40 years , surely the temps are too high to get widespread snow . the European airflow seem to mild as the air into western Europe is coming from south and not north. 

[Snowy L]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Pay attention to the svaalbard heights ont his run too .....shoud, be a fun fi 

They're the things stopping any cold moving down to Scandi and the UK. It's done its job, but needs to frick off asap, otherwise potential for weeks of northern blocking, but no real cold and we end up with 3C and rain.

This is the end result of a week of these "stonking charts"

[SLEETY]

Fantastic gfs, very good run this, t's fast becoming my favourite model now, it's already outperformed the ukmo in the lead up to the upcoming cold spell, hopefully it going to be correct again after that absurd met office forecast, which was actually  rather vague. 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

When the American-new dats mod @GFS is so steadfast-signal scoring.. we don’t need to look to other agencies..@trust me .  Good in ere .. innit . Gfs.. imo getting things correct!!

I agree, the GFS seems to have 3 modes in my experience:

1. Flailing around totally, no run to run consistency at all.
2. Consistently showing what the ECM and UKMO showed yesterday.
3. Total consistency.

The third is rare, but it is what we are seeing now, it is good at resolving the jet coming out of the USA and the area around Greenland which area so crucial to this set up.

[tight isobar]

When you have a 3-suite model.. in high regard .. holding its sync.. run.. on- run.. operational/public .. or other wise..with mirrored synoptic.. “continuing “.. then we need to ask questions via outlets and reliability??!!  Format blocking with NIL chances of hp dominant @uk!!!!!  I’m sticking with the gfs.. yes because I adore it’s evol.. and it makes perfect meteorological sense...

Edited December 23, 2020 by tight isobar

[sheikhy]

Ukmo looks more a snow event for central and eastern england judging from the positioning of the low at 120 hours!where as gfs has it further west!!

[Tim Bland]

Not far off a southern blizzard here...

[Weathizard]

Just for fun of course but plausible if GFS has called the evolution right at day 7-10

[XtremeUKWeather]

Amazing GEFS MEAN

[Drifter]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Just for fun of course but plausible if GFS has called the evolution right at day 7-10

Historic blizzard territory there. 

[Kasim Awan]

GEM joins the club. Such a strong signal for an unusually weak Atlantic. So, high chance / confidence that a cold, blocked pattern will verify at D7-10.

[TSNWK]

Looks like we still need to accept a milder slot for the start of 1st week in the south rather it did not happen, but again it further underpins the consistency recently of gfs... which has been steadfast in running with this since last Thursday..

here’s hoping the milder is a milder blip..

 

[bluearmy]

That system headed ne courtesy of the slightly west based neg NAO is too deep and rounded for my liking ...could well bring a big snowstorm as it gets in - whether we get enough cold headed south to push it back is another question - looks less likely than the 06z at this stage 

[Battleground Snow]

Nice gem at 240, again a little bit too west with the Greenland block though 

 

[phil nw.]

Just a friendly reminder folks .Please just discuss the current models in here.

If you wish to exchange views on the met outlook go here

Any general chat here

...and finally we have a learning area for newer chart viewers

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/learning/

We are now very busy so it would help greatly with the flow of the thread if everyone could post in the correct threads as much as possible.

Many thanks.

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Looks like we still need to accept a milder slot for the start of 1st week in the south rather it did not happen, but again it further underpins the consistency recently of gfs... which has been steadfast in running with this since last Thursday..

here’s hoping the milder is a milder blip..

 

Let’s hope that we a slight change southwards in a chart T288 away.

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ukmo looks more a snow event for central and eastern england judging from the positioning of the low at 120 hours!where as gfs has it further west!!

Yes, looks like many areas away from the far south would be in on the action!!!

[Howie]

I really hope the west based  -NAO theme is dropped, that would be incredibly frustrating. The high seems to be orienting towards Canada smh

[Tim Bland]

New Year’s Day snow cover on GEM..

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

That system headed ne courtesy of the slightly west based neg NAO is too deep and rounded for my liking ...could well bring a big snowstorm as it gets in - whether we get enough cold headed south to push it back is another question - looks less likely than the 06z at this stage 

Looks fine mate!!!each time it tries a west based nao we see disruption just in time!!!dont want it to keep doing that as a higher chance of things going wrong but so far so good!!ukmo looks further east with the low next monday tuesday compared to ecm!

[Geordiesnow]

16 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

They're the things stopping any cold moving down to Scandi and the UK. It's done its job, but needs to frick off asap, otherwise potential for weeks of northern blocking, but no real cold and we end up with 3C and rain.

This is the end result of a week of these "stonking charts"

Yep on paper the synotpics look good but the reality is, the cold uppers we did have(around - 4 and - 5) are being washed away and we are down to around - 2 and we even got some patchy positive uppers heading into Scotland on the GFS12Z as the centre of the low head through the UK. 

I just think its a total waste and any deep proper cold looks a long way off.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I don’t use the GEM too often but I will this time inasmuch it’s leading to a monster snow fest and I would love it to be right, we saw this type of run on another model this morning.

t192

 

look around Iceland.
 

developing and starting to move SSE with very cold air wrapped in it.

here she comes with W and NW getting it full on.

 

beautiful....looks like a toppler with some cool rain especially for the Mountains up north...

Don’t go looking for breakdowns/mild sectors in January....keep the focus within this year.  No doubt January will have many different outcomes yet.

BFTP

Edited December 23, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[tight isobar]

Inter flow supremacy!! Heights sitting over uk are where ??.  Egg face.. some will have !!!

[Matt H]

Have to admit I was expecting worse when I saw people commenting on milder periods going forward. Not going to worry too much about a west based negative NAO for now unless it starts looking more likely.

Edited December 23, 2020 by Frosty Winter