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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

Met4Cast

By Met4Cast
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The snow track from a few weeks ago turned out to be a blend of both gfs and ec. I’d say gfs was closer (which isn’t what we would expect).  Of course with this particular little disturbance being around day six it may not even exist come the time ! 

Or there maybe others lurking...

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted (edited)

Just before the 12z feeding frenzy!...the ECM 0z ensemble mean continues to trend colder during next week..I kid you not guys!...something is afoot..a foot or 2 of snow perhaps?...discuss!...in the meantime, there’s a weather bomb which will change coldies fortunes for the much better..hopefully?!

BB0649BD-1542-439B-ADD1-1B619F755C54.thumb.gif.20b36db6228ec1e18cc601137e228f46.gif1C12D26E-9816-4764-ACE0-F806E648437A.thumb.gif.721de3c00d351b568c0be7b03cf88050.gifEFA7BBC8-2EBF-4F08-850E-B88E5097AC6B.thumb.gif.7330f654eb78e5ffafc054fab6d14f88.gif

 

Edited by Jon Snow
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phil nw. Maestro

phil nw.

Posted
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow then clear and frosty.
  • Location: Nuneaton,Warks. 128m asl
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Posted

Just looking upstream at the ecm 00z expected flow over North America.

t96/t144/t240

ECN1-96.thumb.gif.bdffefb012b037ec5be0c16df9d50c62.gifECN1-144.thumb.gif.58010423bff8e10cef3a597ad56eda6f.gifECN1-240.thumb.gif.4cef230645ebe29332181bc74702af40.gif

Shows 3 good waves in the jet over there.All helping to push warm southerly air towards Greenland which feeds the downstream ridging we see over the Atlantic.Obviously the T240 may not be exactly like that but you get the idea.

 

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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted
18 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Just before the 12z feeding frenzy!...the ECM 0z ensemble mean continues to trend colder during next week..I kid you not guys!...something is afoot..a foot or 2 of snow perhaps?...discuss!...in the meantime, there’s a weather bomb which will change coldies fortunes for the much better..hopefully?!

BB0649BD-1542-439B-ADD1-1B619F755C54.thumb.gif.20b36db6228ec1e18cc601137e228f46.gif1C12D26E-9816-4764-ACE0-F806E648437A.thumb.gif.721de3c00d351b568c0be7b03cf88050.gifEFA7BBC8-2EBF-4F08-850E-B88E5097AC6B.thumb.gif.7330f654eb78e5ffafc054fab6d14f88.gif

 

Thanks JOHN snow 

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I’m sure there are - it’s just futile at this range 

 

26 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Just checked the eps control from the 06z and it takes the system south through Wales and Somerset/Devon.  The 00z run wasn’t too far away from the op 

 

Pretty much same as 00z run then!!!!!got good consistency there for now!!although im sure it will change in the next few days!!

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
29 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The snow track from a few weeks ago turned out to be a blend of both gfs and ec. I’d say gfs was closer (which isn’t what we would expect).  Of course with this particular little disturbance being around day six it may not even exist come the time ! 

The ECM is behaving similarly with this situation as the last - each day it is shifting it  east around 50 miles. People may recall the big snow totals progged for Wales? What actually occurred was the East side got it. Here is 48hrs ago Vs today. Let’s see where we are with it in another 48hrs..

49103DA7-C55C-43E0-87D9-A5E25A5BA0A7.jpeg

C728B1D2-FBDA-4BE6-913F-13A1749F2435.jpeg

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

I think we should keep it on the topic of JUST the uk don’t you think? 

This has massive implications for the weather we end up experiencing here, so this is more than relevent.

 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Author
Posted
2 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

I think we should keep it on the topic of JUST the uk don’t you think? 

What happen over America dictates the extent of blocking in the Atlantic & thus the UK pattern.. so it's important to know what's happening there.

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted

Ramifications!!! ..  . I hope the 12z sets both align-decipher!!!!

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Speedbird Community Regular

Speedbird

Posted
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and ice
  • Location: Delnies, Nairn, Highlands (30m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, Winterdarkness said:

I think we should keep it on the topic of JUST the uk don’t you think? 

It is highlighting how events on the other side of the Atlantic may affect the weather pattern here.

It's entirely relevant. 

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Somerset Squall Seasoned

Somerset Squall

Posted
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunder, strong winds
  • Location: Taunton, Somerset
Posted
3 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

I think we should keep it on the topic of JUST the uk don’t you think? 

No, because the post was referring to how this will affect the UK. What happens in the US has a knock on effect over here.

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Mikey Skins Apprentice

Mikey Skins

Posted
  • Location: Walesby
  • Location: Walesby
Posted
5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

The ECM is behaving similarly with this situation as the last - each day it is shifting it  east around 50 miles. People may recall the big snow totals progged for Wales? What actually occurred was the East side got it. Here is 48hrs ago Vs today. Let’s see where we are with it in another 48hrs..

49103DA7-C55C-43E0-87D9-A5E25A5BA0A7.jpeg

C728B1D2-FBDA-4BE6-913F-13A1749F2435.jpeg

Keep it coming east as well. North Nottinghamshire to be exact. 

 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Interesting looking at the Met Office 10-day and they seem to have higher confidence of HP over the UK by the start of the year, nothing like the GFS last few runs or ecm!

Only four gefs had UK high pressure by d10 so a possibility, and one to watch out for if the Met is right?

d10 06z run>> gens_panel_jzf5.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ramifications!!! ..  . I hope the 12z sets both align-decipher!!!!

Don’t leave us hanging @tight isobar what ramifications which I usually associate with negative outcomes....

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
19 minutes ago, Snowfish2 said:

Thanks JOHN snow 

You’re very welcome mate, I think there are exciting times ahead judging by the Gfs / Gefs / Ecm etc..unlike the dross of recent years, I think this winter will deliver!

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
6 minutes ago, IDO said:

Interesting looking at the Met Office 10-day and they seem to have higher confidence of HP over the UK by the start of the year, nothing like the GFS last few runs or ecm!

Only four gefs had UK high pressure by d10 so a possibility, and one to watch out for if the Met is right?

d10 06z run>> gens_panel_jzf5.png

I honestly don't know where that has come from. There's no real indication on the models to suggest it. Very puzzling 

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North East Blizzard Enthusiast

North East Blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Atlantic Storms, Snow, Snow and more Snow!!
  • Location: Consett, Co Durham 270m asl
Posted
Just now, Howie said:

I honestly don't know where that has come from. There's no real indication on the models to suggest it. Very puzzling 

Reading it I'm not sure it necessarily means high pressure is bang over the top of us, sounds more like blocking in the Atlantic with winds coming from the east to me, hence the drier in the west, showers in the east comments

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
Just now, North East Blizzard said:

Reading it I'm not sure it necessarily means high pressure is bang over the top of us, sounds more like blocking in the Atlantic with winds coming from the east to me, hence the drier in the west, showers in the east comments

Ooooh yes that does make sense now! I did think that part was indicative of easterly winds 

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IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted
4 minutes ago, North East Blizzard said:

Reading it I'm not sure it necessarily means high pressure is bang over the top of us, sounds more like blocking in the Atlantic with winds coming from the east to me, hence the drier in the west, showers in the east comments

This is from their latest video, starts at the appropriate point:

https://youtu.be/RHcG5cony-M?t=386

Totally different to the gfs!

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
2 minutes ago, IDO said:

This is from their latest video, starts at the appropriate point:

https://youtu.be/RHcG5cony-M?t=386

Totally different to the gfs!

Yes this is what I was referring to! It even kind of contradicts their written long range forecast doesn't it? Very strange 

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