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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

Met4Cast

By Met4Cast
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul_1978 Accomplished

Paul_1978

Posted
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Wakefield, West Yorkshire
Posted
13 minutes ago, Eskimo said:

Can I just point out that to the mods (whilst I'm certain my post will disappear quicker than an easterly on the GFS) that this thread has become spiteful because of certain members over the last 4-6 weeks and has sucked out all the enjoyment I had of it over the last 10 years. 

It's like a playground in here now. I want to express that it's a small minority that are spoiling it. 

I think it is worth pointing out that making judicious use of the member block feature is highly recommended. Makes for a much better experience, and quicker to catch up when you’ve been away for a few hours. 

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lorenzo Maestro

lorenzo

Posted
  • Location: @scotlandwx
  • Weather Preferences: Crystal Clear High Pressure & Blue Skies
  • Location: @scotlandwx
Posted
11 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Even though I don't understand a single word of that ...it sounds very positive

It is.

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted

spacer.png

Snow on Christmas...

spacer.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The 18z gfs is a great run to sleep on...

gfsnh-0-342.thumb.png.7472dfc8926e005384eff5be6e23f326.pnggfsnh-1-342.thumb.png.4ab82322e78568252049bd34e70966a8.png61797064_tenor(1).thumb.gif.05277c5582714fa286a3d4446193f9f8.gif

but no,...i am not going to bed yet,i have to see what the gefs 18z are up to first...

mean at 186,steady as she goes...

gensnh-31-1-186.thumb.png.2808f5740d939caf0a4ffe5824ffc6ef.png1199705028_download(1).thumb.jpg.f405332c59f0319ee516327580b3897e.jpg200.thumb.gif.fd03ea95e90d4d39d204cee569a9d729.gif

 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Author
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

If we didn't have the SSW potential in the background, I'd be hanging on every run. It's vital if the strat is strong that you keep up the tropospheric amplification- otherwise you get the two connecting. This happened in December 2016- remember when the Metoffice and EC monthly were consistently advertising a weak TPV?

In this instance we have a disconnect AND a SSW looking likely to occur. This means we have so much margin for error. Even if there is a connect, we have the SSW to back us up- there is no zonal westerlies then all the way through the atmosphere. It's a win win and seems too good to be true...but here we are.

The GEFS 12z ensembles all showed a SSW-split type event come early January. Worth noting the extended EPS are no where near as keen as the GEFS seem to be (neither is glosea, albeit there is scatter there to suggest potential)

EptSpg_W4AATRVQ.thumb.png.f04243260dfc242bfe2407ab89c38b9a.png

EPS updates tomorrow evening. 

Edited by Met4Cast
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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Posted
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

The GEFS 12z ensembles all showed a SSW-split type even come early January. Worth noting the extended EPS are no where near as keen as the GEFS seem to be (neither is glosea, albeit there is scatter there to suggest potential)

EptSpg_W4AATRVQ.thumb.png.f04243260dfc242bfe2407ab89c38b9a.png

EPS updates tomorrow evening. 

I think the 9th was touted by the professionals...so it could be the GFS is a week early. We'll see.

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Author
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

I think the 9th was touted by the professionals...so it could be the GFS is a week early. We'll see.

I've gone for the 7th in Simon Lees competition on Twitter. Some two weeks earlier than the 2018 SSW so it really couldn't be more perfectly timed. Whether it downwells & has a favourable impact for the UK however is the next step to worry about.. but we're certainly miles away from the mild & unsettled second half to winter many (myself included) were expecting at the beginning of this winter.

Edited by Met4Cast
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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted

 C L E A N

image.thumb.png.e1f83b697522768aec2e85abf3b04d97.png

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Zak M Maestro

Zak M

Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, plumes, snow, severe weather
  • Location: Bedfordshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

How many exclamation marks, when you are really excited @sheikhy?

I love Sheikhy's optimistic posts, but I've got a feeling he is going to do something weird with all the '' emojis at the end of his posts whenever a model is showing something good

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Cheshire Freeze Maestro

Cheshire Freeze

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Popular Post
Posted
1 minute ago, Snowman. said:

 C L E A N

image.thumb.png.e1f83b697522768aec2e85abf3b04d97.png

I think if you gave the likes of @chionomaniacand @lorenzo carte blanche to pick a place of split, that would pretty much be it.

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted

Fantastic model watching this last few days and some how it seems to just get better every day, i keep waking in the morning thinking its gonna have all gone boobs up but no its just better each run. Also loving the majority of posts in here this past week, new knowledgeable members and the old guard have been brilliant so far. Thank you for a brilliant thread. Now somebody bring me my SNAW!!

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted
Just now, weirpig said:

Brilliant short ensembles   snow row going up   and the period after Christmas as the mean around -5   

graphe3_00000_248_83___.png

What location is this for please ?

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Updated_Weather Seasoned

Updated_Weather

Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
Posted

I guess you can’t have decent output and different views on things without people getting touchy!

I think the government will be hoping this plays out especially if snow is on the horizon! Keep people in but still moaning!

will mother nature fight for us against COVID?

Very good runs today, good to see some consistency! & some agreement between the models abide different route.

 

very exciting time considering how bad 2020 has been!❄️?

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Snowman. Accomplished

Snowman.

Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I think if you gave the likes of @chionomaniacand @lorenzo carte blanche to pick a place of split, that would pretty much be it.

It's perfect. I just can't stop thinking about it, would be a fantastic cold spell if it was modelled 1 to 1 in the trop.

In other news, P2 has the low cleared sufficiently east and much less intense resulting in the following.

image.thumb.png.85d353a61ce6f65d34f580cf38a2b268.pngimage.thumb.png.7b8b194c4c3042274abf63b84180130d.png 

Edited by Snowman.
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

 C L E A N

image.thumb.png.e1f83b697522768aec2e85abf3b04d97.png

Certainly better than the 12z where it had a lobe over the Atlantic

this is better positioned to our east.

gfsnh-10-384.thumb.png.5da98615dd5742d40cfb04f8a5ba6ff9.png

BTW,the 18z gefs mean is a lot further south with the UK trough.

 

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Met4Cast Maestro

Met4Cast

Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Author
Posted
6 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

 C L E A N

image.thumb.png.e1f83b697522768aec2e85abf3b04d97.png

That is without doubt, one of the most beautiful charts I have seen in terms of stratospheric warming & splitting. I don't think it'd be possible to draw a more perfect split.

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Stu_London Rising Star

Stu_London

Posted
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
  • Location: Tunbridge Wells, Kent
Posted

Colder run

Not sure about the end of it - as a lot of blocking has melted away - but meaningless anyway at that range and strat might come to the rescue shortly afterwards.

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
Posted

I'm not gonna get involved in the nitty gritty,what will be will be,but I've a feeling in me water this is our time for something wintry..and last time I had that feeling I ended up on antibiotics Seriously GFS is cold throughout and at times beyond day 10,even colder...Low pressure in the mix and absolutely no signs of Zonality!!! Hang on a sec that word doesn't exist!!  

Snow may be coming to a Town near you,you may love it,you may hate it..but I can bloody well guarantee someone will be moaning about it on here...its the wrong kind of snow!! whatever it brings us,do have fun,if you can.

gfs-0-324.png

gfs-1-324.png

18_285_preciptype.png

560f2ca6496fa01ae2650a3fd059c29e.png

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted

GFS pub run, T384, down here and up there:

8B1E80D6-749E-4954-87A6-23E04BD33C31.thumb.png.59bc9c3e8e69a901a4ed3fdaea03aeae.png57F0636D-0FEA-4090-9EA5-995BC8A7CCD4.thumb.png.35b9189a8dfda78aa708b2c335c9cf07.png

You can’t disconnect them though.  I still want to see the SSW on the ECM Berlin charts to have a good idea on the likely way forward beyond the next couple of weeks.  

Finally the JMA T264:

E199FD61-B972-4265-B444-A895429F504D.thumb.gif.344d3815d5a15a3f8891491535183cf0.gif

I did post this earlier, but in the coronavirus thread!  Who knows what they made of it there!  Theme: rinse and repeat on amplification.  

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