Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[tight isobar]

56 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is excellent...

Apart from 1/2 minor easily overcome wobbles.. the ecm 00z is 8/10.. overall... .  Not felt this .. for sometime!!! @all gravy .  On we run ?

[bluearmy]

15 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Yes, that west based negative NAO is a risk, albeit a small one for now.  The ext EPS mean for day 15 is ridiculous - never seen that level of height anomaly over western Greenland that far out..  For safety I wish everything was a little further east but a very decent ext EPS suite.

That southern arm link up even earlier on the eps than gefs.   Also the persistence of the mid Atlantic ridge over the next two weeks with downstream trough is impressive (mean thicknesses sub 528 out to T312) - you are right to point out the greeny anomoly being stronger a little west which concerns you re west based nao but with the mean upper ridge being centred more eastern side greeny and the euro trough remaining intact it’s only a small concern for the time being. Exacerbated by a couple of gfs ops that have gone there past couple days. 
 

id say the most impressive extended eps for coldies I can recall for some considerable time 

Edited December 23, 2020 by bluearmy

[Man With Beard]

ECM mean T120 - this low is not going to be very far from this spot come Monday morning

The T240 chart suggests the Atlantic is probably not going to be dominating any time soon

 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Coronavirus lockdown, this won't be a normal January, already going for one of driest on record, GFS 00Z also has very little rain after Sunday

[Tim Bland]

WOW! Big dump still there on ECM this time next week! 4th day in a row to show a massive fall early to kid next week, starting in the north west and heading south east. This time Up to 35cm falls for parts of midlands but a covering for most!  

*Ps please remember it is Net Weather law that someone points out that this post is rubbish as ECM has a flaw that accumulates all snow falling without inc sleet and blah blah blah *

ITS HAPPENING GUYS & GALS !!! ️

[syed2878]

3 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah definitely. The ukmo has the low too far north. Agreed about the GFS. The GFS run is a match for the BBC forecast. All will depend on where troughs and disturbances lie. Lets hope the ECM backs the GFS. Certainly has upgraded potential from 2 days ago

 another good set of run today what impresses me is the continuity from the GFS and it now looks like the UKMO will back it from day six impressive output I have seen since 2018 and this GFS would only get called as time goes on. I do hope the BBC forecast will come to fruition by the way when did you see that forecast?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

GFS is an insane run.  Look at this feature developing from around t220.  Where does this come from?  Bear with  me as I pop in and out to copy and paste.  This is an arctic bomb

note minor trough feature appears around Iceland.

This at t240...look at Iceland

 

t252 it’s intensifying 

 

T264 here she comes

 

snow machine....loads of feet of it

Edited December 23, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[sheikhy]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

WOW! Big dump still there on ECM this time next week! 4th day in a row to show a massive fall early to kid next week, starting in the north west and heading south east. This time Up to 35cm falls for parts of midlands but a covering for most!  

*Ps please remember it is Net Weather law that someone points out that this post is rubbish as ECM has a flaw that accumulates all snow falling without inc sleet and blah blah blah *

ITS HAPPENING GUYS & GALS !!! ️

Dont worry come the time it will be so far south and east it will give steve murr a big dumping!!!then we will defo see him out in full force on this forum!

[Catacol]

7 hours ago, georgiedre said:

Seen this on twitter would this mean a cold outcome for the UK?

It is the Holy Grail...and slap bang in the heart of winter...

[kold weather]

As you were from yesterday with regards to 28-29th period, if anything the models are starting to firm up on a snow event somewhere as the secondary low forms and swings down.

These set-ups are capable of really big dumpings if they perform a small tight loop around the old circulation center (the ECM kinda shows this) and so we need to keep a close eye on this, but also be aware it may take a few more days to get more confidence of this.

Beyond that and there are still strong suggestions of a Greenland high trying to form, whether it makes it remains to b seen and frankly with the jet running to our south we may not even need it as strong as a slightly less surpressed pattern may allow a wave of lows with cold air aloft to butt towards the UK.

Odds of a prolonged cold spell only heading up at the moment...perhaps at the one time we could do without it...

 

Edited December 23, 2020 by kold weather

[Man With Beard]

White Christmas is gone for most, but East Anglia could still see flakes falling

 

though if anything unexpected comes out of the sky, it'll probably be white

Edited December 23, 2020 by Man With Beard

[winterof79]

Gfs // has lost it1060mb

[topo]

9 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Gfs // has lost it1060mb

1070 actually 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-0-372.png?0

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

4 minutes ago, topo said:

1070 actually 

https://modeles16.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfsp/run/gfs-0-372.png?0

In that case it must be on the money . 
BFTP

[northwestsnow]

1 hour ago, sheikhy said:

Guys its done man!!we heading for what could be a notable cold and snowy period!!all 3 models look amazing!!!

gfs Yes...

Ec kind of

Uk absolutely not 

 

[Winterdarkness]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

gfs Yes...

Ec kind of

Uk absolutely not 

 

U.K. met has been poor this year, I feel there charts are biased for warm weather 

[chionomaniac]

LOL that GFS run from 00Z. Thing is, is that I don't quite think we've reached full potential yet.....

[Anthony Burden]

GFS chart 06z showing this major high level blocking,long time since I have seen such charts

at this time of year must be SSW.Don’t worry about the 850 hpa it will be cold enough for all

with plenty of the white stuff on offer.

[southbank]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

LOL that GFS run from 00Z. Thing is, is that I don't quite think we've reached full potential yet.....

Hi Chionomniiac , any concerns that today the models seem to indicate a displacement  rather than split around the 7th Jan ? ironic that GLOSEA finally started coming on board with a SSW that we go from a spilt to displacement as we know with UK luck where the displacement wil end up !!! 

[Skullzrulerz]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

gfs Yes...

Ec kind of

Uk absolutely not 

 

Why is the ECM not as good the GFS I don't think it's bad as the UKMO?

[jethro]

Morning all, I rarely post in here because frankly my contribution of 'ooo, look at the pretty blobs and squiggly lines' adds little to the conversation. But even my baffled brain can see the potential on offer this time and I'm looking forward to seeing snowmen and sledging on the news, a bit of light relief that's much needed.

[Winterdarkness]

5 minutes ago, southbank said:

Hi Chionomniiac , any concerns that today the models seem to indicate a displacement  rather than split around the 7th Jan ? ironic that GLOSEA finally started coming on board with a SSW that we go from a spilt to displacement as we know with UK luck where the displacement wil end up !!! 

Oh no I knew it would end up a displacement great...

[Harsh Climate]

With charts like these showing albeit in deep FI who can be unhappy! I don't know. Come xmas day when were eating our xmas dinner we can be looking at the charts and dream what might be, atleast we have that and not endless zonality been shown. Esembles are great aswel, Not many perputations down to -10 but flatlinng most of the way at -5 is terrific consistencey. 

A lot of talk about 850s been cold enough? It works both ways I'm afraid, there are certainly  a lot more parrameters in place to guarantee snow. I remember in 2010 when it started with a north/north easterly, we had uppers here of -11 850hpa, it rained!! Even when the temperature was -1.5c, unbelievable and other times we had propper snow with no melt at -4 850hpa..

Edited December 23, 2020 by Harsh Climate

[username home]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

WOW! Big dump still there on ECM this time next week! 4th day in a row to show a massive fall early to kid next week, starting in the north west and heading south east. This time Up to 35cm falls for parts of midlands but a covering for most!  

*Ps please remember it is Net Weather law that someone points out that this post is rubbish as ECM has a flaw that accumulates all snow falling without inc sleet and blah blah blah *

ITS HAPPENING GUYS & GALS !!! ️

M4 snowshield in full effect!

[bluearmy]

12 minutes ago, southbank said:

Hi Chionomniiac , any concerns that today the models seem to indicate a displacement  rather than split around the 7th Jan ? ironic that GLOSEA finally started coming on board with a SSW that we go from a spilt to displacement as we know with UK luck where the displacement wil end up !!! 

I don’t think they necessarily show a displacement- gfs doesn’t go far enough to split on its 00z run. it would probably split by day 18.  However, the gfs op is no longer consistent on the upcoming warming.  Until we get consistency back then guessing where any vortices end up is a bit pointless