Jump to content
Thunder?
Local
Radar
Pollen

Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas


Met4Cast
 Share

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 hour ago, tight isobar said:

    Kinks in the flow[email protected] wobbly isobars... this is some run —-ALREADY... ❄️❄️❄️

    00C1EB0E-1F93-445D-BE3D-14967297F630.png

    20AB751D-4C3B-4CFB-B070-B96803F5617D.png

     

    59 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    28 - 31. Snow cant be ruled out have you seen the 850s improve in situ run to run with a north Easterly flow full of disturbances and troughs 

     

    37 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    GFS gives some severely cold nights under a slack flow. Would be looking at -5 to -10 minimums on that run.

    I'd managed to convince myself there'd be a backtrack or downgrade this morning. 

    Wowzers, incredible evolution, run on run, and the commentary here isn't half bad either. 

    Not strictly model related, but have you guys actually had any sleep? 

    • Like 6
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, Griff said:

     

     

    I'd managed to convince myself there'd be a backtrack or downgrade this morning. 

    Wowzers, incredible evolution, run on run, and the commentary here isn't half bad either. 

    Not strictly model related, but have you guys actually had any sleep? 

    Nah lucky to be off work atm but will be now and will catch up on the 06z run haha!

    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Yeah without doubt! Ill be watching the other 3 runs today with an eagle eye and keeping an eye on twitter to see what the Berlin charts are saying!

    I can't see a reason why the vortex wouldn't split...but I'm no strat expert by a long shot. 

    Just hope we can see some splits reappear in the operational runs soon.

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level

    Its always the way for coldies...

    Looked at GFS - ecstatic.

    Looked at UKMO - not ecstatic...

    I've got everything crossed EC follows GFS!!

    • Like 3
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    36 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    The only downside is that the GFS seems to be backing away from a proper split SSW...the 18z ensembles were a real backtrack in this regard. The 0z just displaces the SPV to Canada

    image.thumb.png.11f3bc0e464930b58486b1bd382d4d11.png

    Is it needed though? 

    I have this question in the past, if the UK is already in a favourable wintry set up, would you want a SSW/MMW event to occur? For instance, winter 1976-77, the mildest part of that winter occurred after such an event. The coldest part of winter 2009-10 occurred before SSW/MMW. 

     

     

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    Its always the way for coldies...

    Looked at GFS - ecstatic.

    Looked at UKMO - not ecstatic...

    I've got everything crossed EC follows GFS!!

    Don't look at the GFS control run post day 9, you'll be even less ecstatic lol

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    3 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Is it needed though? 

    I have this question in the past, if the UK is already in a favourable wintry set up, would you want a SSW/MMW event to occur? For instance, winter 1976-77, the mildest part of that winter occurred after such an event. The coldest part of winter 2009-10 occurred before SSW/MMW. 

     

     

    This year I'm leaning towards yes, we'll need the SSW if we're to carry on with wintry potential throughout January and February.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East
    2 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

    Is it needed though? 

     

     

     

    This is an intriguing question ....

     

    But I also have one of my own , are we seeing these eye candy trop scenarios because the GFS is seeing a SSW ? 

    I shall pass that onto Crewe and Scott , the more experienced and knowledgeable 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    FWIW icon is more GFS than UKMO...

    It's a sort of GFS/UKMO hybrid, much like GEM

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    Just now, CreweCold said:

    It's a sort of GFS/UKMO hybrid, much like GEM

    its further south with the troughing , per GFS...

    UKMO looks further North, infact UKMO is poor IMO, the trough will fill at 144..

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, Raythan said:

    This is an intriguing question ....

     

    But I also have one of my own , are we seeing these eye candy trop scenarios because the GFS is seeing a SSW ? 

    I shall pass that onto Crewe and Scott , the more experienced and knowledgeable 

    In short, no.

    Essentially what we have seen since October is a SSW precursor pattern play out. Ural blocking has played a huge part in that. What we're seeing at the moment are trop led shenanigans which have been in the script since November- remember I was quite bullish about a weak TPV this month.

    • Like 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    Just now, northwestsnow said:

    its further south with the troughing , per GFS...

    UKMO looks further North, infact UKMO is poor IMO, the trough will fill at 144..

    The UKMO output is poor, no skirting around that

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    The UKMO output is poor, no skirting around that

    Maybe poor is harsh lol.

    I think I meant in comparison to GFS ...

    Let's hope EC is more GFS  anyway...

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Maybe poor is harsh lol.

    I think I meant in comparison to GFS ...

    Let's hope EC is more GFS  anyway...

    it's poor at D6...a longer way to snow from there

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    Worth noting that the GFS parallel run isn’t far off from the UKMO at t144 and still goes on to produce a fairly decent northerly by t186 as well as blocking over Greenland in FI in line with the operational run!👍

    A94CF80F-B70B-4432-A68B-2073D17738FB.png

    86433017-DE6F-4D20-B526-108DDED05430.png

    191530D0-C9EE-4F9E-8481-0B462B918603.png

    It's also a day behind too

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    It's also a day behind too

    My mistake, thanks for pointing it out.😊

    • Thanks 1
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Czech Republic
  • Location: Czech Republic
    12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    This year I'm leaning towards yes, we'll need the SSW if we're to carry on with wintry potential throughout January and February.

    This pattern definitely needs a kick in the teeth to actually provide some meaningful cold. It's hardly a winter wonderland anywhere in Europe now. But definitely a backtrack today regarding a split. Clicked through the GEFS and saw maybe one?

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    ECM 120 & 144

    ....pretty good! Obviously the quickest route to cold being getting the low south or south east of the UK, which it does at 144 and the floodgates open for the cold to move south.

    Just one other point, this chart backs up a point made a few days ago, and dispels the myth some like to use that the pattern ALWAYS shifts east nearer the time...if that was the case the software would be changed. If anything its drifted west on this occassion.

    ECMOPEU00_120_1-1.png

    ECMOPEU00_144_1-6.png

    Edited by KTtom
    • Like 2
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Morning. Gfs oz looks a great evolution this morning altho not mirrored by the control. Ukmo slightly underwhelming but a longer route I'd suspect. Slight variations are going to come as the actual time scale arrives ie forecast but any changes now should be minimal given the consictencey over the last few days. Also the blocking looks well laid foundation wise. 👍👍👍

    • Like 4
    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    20 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

    My mistake, thanks for pointing it out.😊

    Easily done, some days it doesn't seem to update until last thing even though it's 00z. I guess it has a low priority on resources. 

    Link to comment
    Share on other sites

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
     Share

    ×
    ×
    • Create New...