Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Looks a tad marginal ️

Yeah,... for Iceland

[radiohead]

This is the best FI run I've seen in recent days. Oh how I wish this was 148 hours and not 348 hours!

Beautiful...

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Have you not been impressed by the consistency of the GFS recently? I agree it does usually chop and change like the wind, but it doesn't seem to be dropping renewed attempts to establish a high in the griceland area

Well it’s playing with Atlantic ridging and at the same time, the undercut of those heights has become the theme, of the op gfs runs . Beyond that large envelope there is no consistency, run to run. 

[Mike Poole]

GFS T360, well this run certainly knew how to to take advantage of whatever cold was available, snow for sure for the south:

[Updated_Weather]

I don’t understand how anyone can be negative about the current output.. just baffles me.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Another ‘unexpected’ solar hit today from a very quiet sun.   All I can say is expect the unexpected, these charts are incredible with no SSW .....I won’t go into snow etc as IT WILL snow

 

 Currently global temps have plummeted to being at 0.2c above 1979- 2000 temps....

 

BFTP

 

 

Edited December 22, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Allseasons-Si]

29 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

 

Theres also another run pushing for the Griceland ridge first week in January! @Allseasons-si

Yep,i got ya,beautiful run isn't it.

[Weathizard]

Control run looks like it’s about to go mental here

[Scott Ingham]

Theres nothing concrete yet in Icelandic heights. Eps wants nothing to do with it but when looking at suggested momentum dates and factoring in timings for EAMT events i called Gricelandic heights a week ago.

With wavelengths slowly changing with each push of amplification coupled with ensembles support for a move west of the Russian high logic dictated this as a possibility.

Its still a small possibility atm but long range forecasting of AAM which is more my speciality did put this pattern firmly in thoughts. 

Its nice to test your own theories and see them being forecast and if it doesnt come off its an opportunity to exam why and go again.

Again all very fascinating. What an interesting brilliant start to 2020 winter

[blizzard81]

It really has to be said how awful the ecm ops were this past week with its underegging of amplification to our north west. It was dragged kicking and screaming towards the gfs and took an age to back down. Woeful performance again in that north west atlantic area with regards to amplification. 

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep,i got ya,beautiful run isn't it.

Beautiful mate!

[feb1991blizzard]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Another ‘unexpected’ solar hit today from a very quiet sun.   All I can say is expect the unexpected, these charts are incredible with no SSW .....I won’t go into snow etc as IT WILL snow

 

 Currently global temps have plummeted to being at 0.2c above 1979- 2000 temps....

 

BFTP

 

 

I thought we needed lower solar activity for a meridional jet?

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I don’t understand how anyone can be negative about the current output.. just baffles me.

The only negative i can see is the NAO/AO

[Scott Ingham]

4 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Another ‘unexpected’ solar hit today from a very quiet sun.   All I can say is expect the unexpected, these charts are incredible with no SSW .....I won’t go into snow etc as IT WILL snow

 

 Currently global temps have plummeted to being at 0.2c above 1979- 2000 temps....

 

BFTP

 

 

You as confident as me on the snow prospects? 

[Purga]

5 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I don’t understand how anyone can be negative about the current output.. just baffles me.

Reverse psychology.....

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I don’t understand how anyone can be negative about the current output.. just baffles me.

I can't see many negative comments? My feeble comment was a joke if you meant me. All charts look fantastic  

[Allseasons-Si]

A rundown of the gfs in motion...

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

OMG....FEET of snow....sorry slush.  Joking but I hope this is the evolution 

BFTP

[Mike Poole]

4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Theres nothing concrete yet in Icelandic heights. Eps wants nothing to do with it but when looking at suggested momentum dates and factoring in timings for EAMT events i called Gricelandic heights a week ago.

With wavelengths slowly changing with each push of amplification coupled with ensembles support for a move west of the Russian high logic dictated this as a possibility.

Its still a small possibility atm but long range forecasting of AAM which is more my speciality did put this pattern firmly in thoughts. 

Its nice to test your own theories and see them being forecast and if it doesnt come off its an opportunity to exam why and go again.

Again all very fascinating. What an interesting brilliant start to 2020 winter

Yes, it is a fascinating start to winter, Scott.  From my point of view, I like to try and understand everything, but I am only half way there with AAM, I’ll be honest, but the stratosphere has really interested for me for some years now, and I’m coming to the conclusion (maybe others have reached it sooner) that this upcoming SSW (there will be one, I’m virtually certain) will lock in a pattern similar to the 2018 march BFTE, but in January.  And with all that cold lurking Far East...new year 2021?

[Nick F]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Well it’s playing with Atlantic ridging and at the same time, the undercut of those heights has become the theme, of the op gfs runs . Beyond that large envelope there is no consistency, run to run. 

Is quite an unusual synoptic evolution though is it not? Trop vortex and low dropping SE from Greenland then stalling and filling over or near the UK wedged between a stationary highly amplified ridge over the Atlantic and the Russian blocking high to the east.

I guess the models will not nail the movements of this vortex given the barrier to the east preventing its usual trajectory further E or SE, yet there's not much impetus from uptream to move the pattern on.

But something has to give at some point, be it from the NW, N or NE. But the models don't seem to be in the position yet to give any confidence in anything breaking the staus quo for now. But at least we are trapped in a cold trough, with any mild incursion having a hard time making inroads given lack of cyclonic and upper flow energy upstream. 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

12 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

You as confident as me on the snow prospects? 

Yes 

BFTP

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Mike Poole said:

Yes, it is a fascinating start to winter, Scott.  From my point of view, I like to try and understand everything, but I am only half way there with AAM, I’ll be honest, but the stratosphere has really interested for me for some years now, and I’m coming to the conclusion (maybe others have reached it sooner) that this upcoming SSW (there will be one, I’m virtually certain) will lock in a pattern similar to the 2018 march BFTE, but in January.  And with all that cold lurking Far East...new year 2021?

You only have to private message me if there is anything you dont understand mate in that regard. I have enough knowledge when it comes to the strat. Not enough to make a forecast based on it however. You probably know more than me on this subject. Im probably wrong but im own theory looking at the last split is if that came to pass (and the positions on the splits if we even get a split at all are going to change down to T-0) is that that surely would only reinforce a pattern seen at the end of the 18z which would see it only get colder and colder?

[Met4Cast]

GEFS not quite as good as the 12z suite, keeps the less cold air 26th-28th over the UK for longer, quite a flip actually on the ENS in that regard. 

[Mapantz]

If you wish to talk about GW or solar activity, use the relevant threads please. Or you could use the PM function?! 

[Allseasons-Si]

Do you know what,i am glad that i found this forum back in 2012 because as of how this year has gone and up to now it has been pretty crap and i wouldn't think of how it would of been like without chatting about the weather of which i didn't have a clue about back then,great hobby this and i have learnt so so much on here so i give you all a big thank you

lets move on he! he!

the 18z gefs mean is steady at day ten,that W Rusky block is getting stronger though.