Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[frosty ground]

20 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I think some need a reminder on what an actual Greenland high looks like, so here;

The 18z is a Greenland ridge at best, but in any case! Very good GFS 18z run, more in-line with the earlier GEFS/EPS and a shift eastwards, as a result we see a colder airflow into the UK. 

Isn’t that big centred off Greenland thou as in the core of the heights

[Team Jo]

Come on lads. Take the personal sniping elsewhere yeah? 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Team Jo said:

Come on lads. Take the personal sniping elsewhere yeah? 

Understood

[Eskimo]

Can I just point out that to the mods (whilst I'm certain my post will disappear quicker than an easterly on the GFS) that this thread has become spiteful because of certain members over the last 4-6 weeks and has sucked out all the enjoyment I had of it over the last 10 years. 

It's like a playground in here now. I want to express that it's a small minority that are spoiling it. 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Eskimo

[Allseasons-Si]

This is spontaneously...

..a good run

@Scott Ingham,are you mystic meg in disguise  or do you own one of these...

good call on the Griceland high,well nearly

 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[lorenzo]

There are wave breaks - then there are wave breaks.

Stunning synoptics, it's as good as it gets for poetry in this image.

The vortex clinging to it's climatological home with that furious filament, the inevitability of the Greenland break

combined with the Ural Torque and the Aleutian Low.

Vortex is toast.

 

[Griff]

8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Look NE- cold filtering around the edge of that developing HP off the coast of Norway...

Slowly slowly catchy coldie..

Spot on, nice thinking

I was dazzled by action out west, but the cold is sneaking in from the east. 

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, Sweatyman said:

Won't be watching ANY BBC forecast this week. Always hopeless 

My thoughts exactly, they will say it’s turning much colder and then show 5 and 6 degrees with maybe the odd 4 in Scotland

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Isn’t that big centred off Greenland thou as in the core of the heights

I think what he's trying to say is the high isnt cut off like on the 12z

But whether its cut off or not as long as the ridge gets far enough North into Greenland (which it is doing) its still a Greenland high whether it last 3 days or 3 weeks and its done the job of pushing very low heights south over the UK to create snow chances 

[Anti-Mild]

It's a good sign that there's been a move eastward by the main point of interest, but I can't shake the fear that it's the start of a trend that will result in a direct cold blast to the Low Countries, leaving us under a cold and frosty HP. Not an awful outcome, but not what most of us want.

It wouldn't be the first time that we've looked set for a snowy Arctic blast only for Holland and Belgium to reap the benefits.

[Geordiesnow]

4 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

The voice of reason

We need to get some sort of Greenland heights or else any cold will go away in few days time 

Yes they may be snowfall for higher ground but it's not the jackpot like some folk on here are saying 

Keeping my expectations low still 

Yep, I think it's fair to say upper air temperature wise, we have seen much better charts but synotopic wise, they are really good although no consolation if it does not deliver the goods but I'm still not too concerned about the details, they will change and they could change for the better. 

I'm a little disappointed with the ECM being correct of the Azores low crossing the UK, much prefer the UKMO/GFS set up where the cold air came in quicker but this initial northerly has upgraded slightly in terms of cold and I would not rule out some Eastern areas seeing some snow showers albeit the window for shower activity is not long lasting. 

The thing I'm more encouraged about is a Atlantic ridge into Greenland is looking more and more likely and that's a good starting position to be in. 

[Bartlett High]

3 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

There are wave breaks - then there are wave breaks.

Stunning synoptics, it's as good as it gets for poetry in this image.

The vortex clinging to it's climatological home with that furious filament, the inevitability of the Greenland break

combined with the Ural Torque and the Aleutian Low.

Vortex is toast.

 

Even though I don't understand a single word of that ...it sounds very positive

[dragan]

Incredible consistency from the GFS, we are odds on a for a period (possibly sustained) of temps a bit below average.

Upper temps low enough for snow on high ground, and perhaps even a bit of sleet <100m asl

This pattern looks locked in for some time.

[sheikhy]

We are on the cusp of something really special!!i will give it to the 12z tomorow!if the models are showing the same then time to get really excited!!!

[Tim Bland]

Nothing marginal about that...

[Ice Day]

The Control is looking just great at 168, with another shift to the east

  

These shifts east are great, but there's always the possibility that it goes too far and we're left in the high.  It's going to be squeaky bum time for the next few days, BUT this is just the first attempt.  

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

This is spontaneously...

..a good run

@Scott Ingham,are you mystic meg in disguise  or do you own one of these...

good call on the Griceland high

 

i called Griceland in my head because we are in a rinse and repeat pattern of amplification and when in this atmospherical base state you find momentum pushes each round further and further East. 

We also had the EPS weeklies showing a reemergence of the Russian HP pushing further west so logically if we have a rise in pressure pushed further east from Greenland and further West from Russia the mweting point is Iceland 

[Fozfoster]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

We are on the cusp of something really special!!i will give it to the 12z tomorow!if the models are showing the same then time to get really excited!!!

Nope nope nope the gate to the garden path is still shut.

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

There are wave breaks - then there are wave breaks.

Stunning synoptics, it's as good as it gets for poetry in this image.

The vortex clinging to it's climatological home with that furious filament, the inevitability of the Greenland break

combined with the Ural Torque and the Aleutian Low.

Vortex is toast.

 

So beautiful

[Kasim Awan]

7 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

My thoughts exactly, they will say it’s turning much colder and then show 5 and 6 degrees with maybe the odd 4 in Scotland

Said sunny spells 4 days before BFTE

[Met4Cast]

We'll see what GLOSEA says in the morning.. 

Decent trends. Det run more in-line with earlier ensemble guidance. Certainly better than anything we saw last winter, lets just hope we can squeeze some decently cold air out of this.

[Johnp]

3 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

The Control is looking just great at 168, with another shift to the east

  

These shifts east are great, but there's always the possibility that it goes too far and we're left in the high.  It's going to be squeaky bum time for the next few days, BUT this is just the first attempt.  

I'm not as worried about this as I believe the result of that would be the continent rapidly freezing and then we would subsequently tap into that due to subsequent retrogression of the high. 

[ICE COLD]

Yesssssss we’ve finally got the -10 line in .

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

We are on the cusp of something really special!!i will give it to the 12z tomorow!if the models are showing the same then time to get really excited!!!

How many exclamation marks, when you are really excited @sheikhy?

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just now, Met4Cast said:

We'll see what GLOSEA says in the morning.. 

Decent trends. Det run more in-line with earlier ensemble guidance. Certainly better than anything we saw last winter, lets just hope we can squeeze some decently cold air out of this.

If we didn't have the SSW potential in the background, I'd be hanging on every run. It's vital if the strat is strong that you keep up the tropospheric amplification- otherwise you get the two connecting. This happened in December 2016- remember when the Metoffice and EC monthly were consistently advertising a weak TPV?

In this instance we have a disconnect AND a SSW looking likely to occur. This means we have so much margin for error. Even if there is a connect, we have the SSW to back us up- there is no zonal westerlies then all the way through the atmosphere. It's a win win and seems too good to be true...but here we are.