Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[markw2680]

Even I’m starting to get a little excited at seeing the consistency from the models, think we could actually be on the cusp of a noteworthy spell of weather, don’t think it will all go tits up but you can never be sure with this game

[Allseasons-Si]

Reinforcements coming up i feel,look at the renewed amplification going up over Newfoundland.

great run so far.

 

[BARRY]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Are we seeing them too soon though, that’s my concern now!  

tomorrow's 00z should hold the key if the cold synoptics are still there then it may be game on

 

[Met4Cast]

18z is much closer to the EPS/GEFS & the 12z GEM, very happy with that evolution and fits well with what I said earlier. A shift away from the Greenland high of the 12z and more in-line with the S Greenland ridge before the high begins to topple into more of a mid Atlantic high. 

Outlook remains positive, chilly or cold with the potential for some snow!

[weirpig]

Much better than 12z  

Happy bunny with this 

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I think some need a reminder on what an actual Greenland high looks like, so here;

The 18z is a Greenland ridge at best, but in any case! Very good GFS 18z run, more in-line with the earlier GEFS/EPS and a shift eastwards, as a result we see a colder airflow into the UK. 

Just enjoy the runs mate for gods sake

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Reinforcements coming up i feel,look at the renewed amplification going up over Newfoundland.

great run so far.

 

This is the third bite of the cherry. I thino this will be more Griceland nearer to time

[Mike Poole]

15 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Even I’m starting to get a little excited at seeing the consistency from the models, think we could actually be on the cusp of a noteworthy spell of weather, don’t think it will all go tits up but you can never be sure with this game

I’ve been watching since 2011, joined 2013, and the only spell that has gone wrong from here (cross model agreement on blocking) was Dec 2012 failed easterly.  But we got our just deserts in late Jan 2013 after the SSW:

Edited December 20, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

18z is much closer to the EPS/GEFS & the 12z GEM, very happy with that evolution and fits well with what I said earlier. A shift away from the Greenland high of the 12z and more in-line with the S Greenland ridge before the high begins to topple into more of a mid Atlantic high. 

Outlook remains positive, chilly or cold with the potential for some snow!

You also said it wouldnt be a sustained cold spell abd the furthest heights would get is the southern tip of Greenland. I think heights went a lot higher than the southern tip of Greenland but i admire your goal post change. Your like the GFS trying to slowly come into line of all the other posters without getting found out hahaha 

[markw2680]

I don’t really care what a proper greenie high is, if we get a ridge or wedge or whatever, if it brings freezing weather and snow I’ll take it

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

This is the third bite of the cherry. I thino this will be more Griceland nearer to time

I sense a disturbance in force...

 

[Tim Bland]

6 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

18z is much closer to the EPS/GEFS & the 12z GEM, very happy with that evolution and fits well with what I said earlier. A shift away from the Greenland high of the 12z and more in-line with the S Greenland ridge before the high begins to topple into more of a mid Atlantic high. 

Outlook remains positive, chilly or cold with the potential for some snow!

Could be a second attempt at a Greenland high coming up...

Edited December 20, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Griff]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

I sense a disturbance in force...

 

Yes a North Westerly that might actually deliver... 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, markw2680 said:

I don’t really care what a proper greenie high is, if we get a ridge or wedge or whatever, if it brings freezing weather and snow I’ll take it

Amen!! Show me the snow!

[Met4Cast]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

You also said it wouldnt be a sustained cold spell abd the furthest heights would get is the southern tip of Greenland. I think heights went a lot higher than the southern tip of Greenland but i admire your goal post change. Your like the GFS trying to slowly come into line of all the other posters without getting found out hahaha 

No post change - It's a shift towards what I said, I don't expect the GFS to go the full hog in 1 run. 

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Could be a second attempt at a Greenland high coming up...

Indeed.. though lets see if we can get the first attempt nailed first 

[bluearmy]

18z looks like it could be following on from the 12z ec op .....and that new year drop in of low heights into the cold trough ....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Look NE- cold filtering around the edge of that developing HP off the coast of Norway...

[Captain Shortwave]

Of course at over a week out you will rarely see the signal for a cut off area of heights emerging from a highly amplified ridge. However an omnipresent ridge to our west has been strongly signaled to form over the coming days. Enough amplitude could keep the UK in a general northerly feed with the risk of systems running over the top or even secondary features running south from the arctic within that deep trough. Both would present significant snow risks if you get a cold enough northerly to start with.

I would add that if the trough does weaken, then a wedge of heights could form like the 18z is doing right now.

 

Ironically sometimes it is better that the Atlantic ridge doesn't develop into a Greenland high, given the risk of a west based -NAO forming and the jet angling NE through the UK. Just for fun it looks like the Euro low may phase with the cold air moving south west through Scandinavia with the high building more robustly to the north. There could be a decent easterly in the latter stages.

 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, BARRY said:

her highs are something to behold 

She is something isnt she!!!!anyway in weather terms back to the highs in the northern hemisphere......wedgey at 250 hours!

[Cheshire Freeze]

Warming looks even better directed into the heart of the SPV to me?

[Skullzrulerz]

16 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

I think some need a reminder on what an actual Greenland high looks like, so here;

The 18z is a Greenland ridge at best, but in any case! Very good GFS 18z run, more in-line with the earlier GEFS/EPS and a shift eastwards, as a result we see a colder airflow into the UK. 

The voice of reason

We need to get some sort of Greenland heights or else any cold will go away in few days time 

Yes they may be snowfall for higher ground but it's not the jackpot like some folk on here are saying 

Keeping my expectations low still 

[Scott Ingham]

Could we be seeing the first signs of griceland heights? 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Warming looks even better directed into the heart of the SPV to me?

Agreed. Much better angle 

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Look NE- cold filtering around the edge of that developing HP off the coast of Norway...

Nice, it's why I think we need the heights in Russia to move east so real cold can sneak round the back

[sheikhy]

Just checked the control for the heck of it just incase the op was wrong!!why did i bother ❄