Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[TSNWK]

And dearest netweather geeks.. I propose we all swear a solemn pact between each of us.... NOT A GOD DARN WORD TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS FOR NOW PLEASE!

I’m sure we have all been there

 

[weirpig]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Might be more than a tad nippy that, feb?

Lol   At least the  fine folk  from Neptune would feel at home.  

[rug]

4 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

And dearest netweather geeks.. I propose we all swear a solemn pact between each of us.... NOT A GOD DARN WORD TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS FOR NOW PLEASE!

I’m sure we have all been there

 

.........ooops.........

[Climate Man]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

And dearest netweather geeks.. I propose we all swear a solemn pact between each of us.... NOT A GOD DARN WORD TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS FOR NOW PLEASE!

I’m sure we have all been there

 

Too late 

[seajamiet]

3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

And dearest netweather geeks.. I propose we all swear a solemn pact between each of us.... NOT A GOD DARN WORD TO FAMILY AND FRIENDS FOR NOW PLEASE!

I’m sure we have all been there

 

I once discussed with a work colleague how I was all into weather and the raw models and I've been learning on the ins and outs and then proceeded to proclaim it was going to be a cold winter with snow on the way.

Learned the hard way not to believe what you see too soon.

[Snowmadsam]

11 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Imagine that blob of -2024 850hpa temps coming towards us over +ve sea temps, that would generate some serious convective snowfall.

good enough to throw hot water in the air!! 

 

But even then people on here may say the upper air temps aren't cold enough.......

 

Otherwise, in the short term its nice to see models are converging on key points at the moment, such as retrogression happening, a seasonal feel to Christmas. Where the low drops etc is still very much up for grabs....

 

We've got a bit of isolation to get over so plenty of time for this to resolve....

[TSNWK]

Oh go then 06zGFS wheel out a scandi high to conclude.

nice run.. again

 

 

[That ECM]

Mean for the 28th.  Now the interest will be to see the small detail in the shorter term. Longer term bigger picture will be fascinating as well.

[daz_4]

9 hours ago, Scott Ingham said:

That high pressure over the Ural region has been very persistent and has been our friend. Very important piece of the jigsaw. I remember when i wanted that to persist n others were saying it was wasting time on winter you and catacol were on the same lines knowing we needed it for a ssw

Well let's hope we get a SSW and that it propagates down in a way that benefits us. As of now that high is a reason why lot of Europe will have a very warm December (except for France, Spain and UK). It seems we will finish the year in this setup.

[weirpig]

Really is wonderful to watch the models at the moment.  Currently on the gfs 6z  at 330h  we are pulling in a north easterly   and the Atlantic as frozen over.

Nothing to see here.

Edited December 21, 2020 by weirpig

[Day_9]

lol at the jet

[Vikos]

EC 00z scenarios

120-168h

192-240h

 

 

[Purga]

A good consistently cold (if not very cold) run from GFS 06z ending with a nice Scandi High way into FI.

GFS is usually hell bent on bringing back default zonality as soon as we get to the tail end of FI, especially after a few cold runs.

FWIW I think with the cold / coldish air mass over us for a prolonged period at what is the best time of year for localised cooling to occur, there could be some nice wintry / snowy surprises almost anywhere - and not just the 'usual' spots.

Edited December 21, 2020 by Purga

[weirpig]

If its Snow you want  in the mid term  The control brings quite a bit of the white stuff   on the 27th and the 28th    Of course likely to change  but potential is there. 

[Frosty_wsm]

3 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Morning gang. Loving the ECM this morning. Position is obvious subject to massive change but that low / PV ruminants drops 20cm of snow on its way down ️

BANK!! think I'd sacrifice all of next winter for that chart to come off! 

Better hope Catacol  doesn't see that chart seeing as he's recently moved from down this way

[Methuselah]

Not a bad end to the 06Z...if only it would verify! 

    

[BlueHedgehog074]

15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Imagine that blob of -2024 850hpa temps coming towards us over +ve sea temps, that would generate some serious convective snowfall.

My gosh, such massive upgrades on these models this morning. Winter here we come

Dunno if these have been posted so far, but both the NOAA 6 to 10 day and 8 to 14 day 500mb latest anomaly charts show support for a chillier period. Much higher than average heights both in the Northern mid-Atlantic and over the Russia/Arctic area to our North East. Both accompanied by upper ridging. Resulting in Lower than average heights with a trough over Eastern UK and into mainland Europe.

Keen upper flow from the North-West, so a chance for some colder weather to develop from our North-West and North quadrant. The amount of rain, sleet or snow depending where the surface Lows and disturbances occur within the flow, but I feel anywhere could see something, even though it could be marginal. Pattern maybe on average a little further East than the GFS would suggest, so wouldn’t be surprised to see some additional little Eastwards shifts from that model

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Probably would also say that if the anomaly charts transpire, there’s not a huge appetite to develop a proper Greenland High on them. From what we have at the moment, though, I think there’s still quite a lot for the cold weather fans to get excited about 

[alexisj9]

4 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Cold enough for snow I reckon, probably some scattered flurries along eastern/southeastern counties on Xmas day pressure is a bit high for widespread activity. 
 

Christmas Eve interests me more low shown to track east over Normandy and colder air encroaching rain to snow potential in S/SE? 

It 

This is what I was hoping the low would do, when I was saying it needs to stay shallow and head SE. At the time, it was either blowing up and heading over the midlands, or staying shallow and heading south west. I'm glad to see it's now being modeled this way. This helps with the northerly, and moving the trough coming down later on further east. Good luck everyone.

[feb1991blizzard]

Don't like the stratosphere on the 6z as much as i liked it on previous runs.

 

[weirpig]

Looking at the uppers by 228hrs  on the ensembles   it looks like the Op and Control  are both on the milder side of the pack   

[SMU]

11 hours ago, Jason Lancett said:

Until @Steve Murr.. comment's.. I'm not onboard

Onboard with the High pressure oscillating between high atlantic & low amplitude Greenland high.

Significant troughing in central Europe.

Uppers borderline > Surprise snow for many....

[Mr Frost]

Just a quick look for fun at some snow parameters from the UKV for Christmas Eve at 18:00.

Dewpoint temperature:

 

Wet bulb freezing height (m)

 

850HPA Temp and Sea level pressure:

 

500-1000hpa thickness (dam)

 

Precipitation type:

 

You really would not be surprised to see a few places getting a wee dusting of snowfall to low ground from all this (later on Christmas Eve) - risk is certainly there! 

Christmas snowfall wise...2017 was the last time there was a slight chance of any falling in the UK - I woke up to a few centimetres on the ground on Boxing Day! 

 

No chance for me this year but glad to see others in with a shout! 

[Rollo]

Wellcome back Steve, now nothing can go wrong!

[78/79]

12 minutes ago, Smartie said:

BANK!! think I'd sacrifice all of next winter for that chart to come off! 

Better hope Catacol  doesn't see that chart seeing as he's recently moved from down this way

Get the right set up, and we can get hammered here.  Seen it a few times, Feb 78 being notable.

[StephenL]

55 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Imagine that blob of -2024 850hpa temps coming towards us over +ve sea temps, that would generate some serious convective snowfall.

I'd imagine the uppers wouldn't be marginal