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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas


Met4Cast

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
26 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Do you have any charts to back that up☺️

Ive already posted em about 50 mins ago.

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Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
16 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Btw

image.thumb.png.9addfdc609855a37df52b79695e983ef.png

That would be a beautiful chart for any operational run in the winter...

But it’s the mean!

Aaand it had a wobble at the key time frame!

Surely the other big models don’t back it up...

Not so fast! Eps shows a mean Icelandic high too!

image.thumb.png.4a091b90250bd8e4369bb1309d7f8276.png

 

The best month of model watching since Feb 2018, can we top it?

If thats a Mean its very realistic it ties in with the Met office 10 day trend a ridge to the NW of Ireland, trough fading away the east.

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Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

Anyone else struggling to keep up lol, so Iv just sat down to look at models and wow is what I think, dare I say it’s looking pretty nailed on for at least a good few days of cold weather with a pretty high chance of snow almost anywhere, some places may get quite a dump some may not, but what I will say is it’s been years since we witnessed charts like this especially ones that ent just cherry picked from fi!! Let’s enjoy what we may have before looking for the end ayy 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Big upgrade on the BBC long ranger !!

Ties in with the excellent outputs this evening...

Certainly factored in the time of year in relation to snow ...

I will check that out in a mo...

the ext gefs mean points to more ridging into Greenland looking at the stamps from 240>.

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

Can't really complain about this set of ensembles from the 18z GFS at 240hrs. Difficult to get a stronger signal for blocking than this at that lead time

472969112_Screenshot2020-12-24at00_18_52.thumb.png.73e0b7808295f3a3441180a039640d67.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Can't really complain about this set of ensembles from the 18z GFS at 240hrs. Difficult to get a stronger signal for blocking than this at that lead time

472969112_Screenshot2020-12-24at00_18_52.thumb.png.73e0b7808295f3a3441180a039640d67.png

You could of left you cursor off pert 6 though he! he!:santa-emoji:

likewise i mentioned above^

we are in a good position Dan and have been for a while now,a far cry from previous winters that's for sure.

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Also about a third of the GEFS go for splits in the SPV not displacements, including op and control (I think, may be over tired!). Another fine note on which to end the day! 

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Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL

Good morning all I've been a member of this site for years. 

I read more than I post. 

There is certainly a lot to be excited about if you like snow and colder weather. 

The 18z looks great for a snowy potential. 

In fact the last 5 days have looked good imo.

A media headline hitter here we come.

Something else to talk about on the news.

Stay merry stay safe 

No need for your snowman to wear a mask enjoy your Christmas chart viewing .

Quite a North Easterly on the 18z

Looking forward to the 06z.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, Storms and epic cold snowy winters
  • Location: Redbourn,Herts AL3. 122M ASL

I It's been a year.  Of utter dispear 

Is that it..?

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Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Going to be locking this one now with a new one for Christmas. Be up in just a sec  

New thread: 

 

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
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