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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
4 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:

Well we are forecast to stay on the cold side of the jet regardless but I don't see any significant cold, I have not seen one output where you would go wow in terms of depth of cold and before anyone mentions regarding the pressure pattern then yes that is impressive and amplified but it what matters on the ground that counts. 

And 18Z also has the mild sector within the low growing with positive uppers entering Scotland briefly even. 

Like I say, the ECM PPN chart a member posted with snow wrapped around the low and rain where there is wind is what I expect from this set up. Transient snowfall at best. 

I suspect there will end up being an area that ends up close to the circulation of the low pressure that gets *hammerd* - somewhere will cope a good 10-20cms from this set-up providing there is actually an active front present.

The 18z GFS is about the worst case scenario as it happens at this point for the 28-29th. Its because it makes keeps a fairly broad slack LP and only makes a secondary depression quite late. Compare that to the ICON run which forms a secondary low far earlier which helps to wrap in a small area of colder air into the flow and strengthens the fronts as well. Hence why that run has a decent snow event, be it some what limited in geographical scope.

However there may well be some rain further removed from the core of the LP in any milder section of the airflow, that is true.

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Posted
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & cold (love it) any extremes.
  • Location: Frampton Cotterell
45 minutes ago, Griff said:

What's not to love... 

gfsnh-0-138.png

gfsnh-1-138.png

Sat on the sofa hiding these charts from my other half because if I tell anyone it won't happen. 

I think she thinks I'm having an affair... 

just tell her you are ogling models Griff, I’m sure she will understand

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I really hope that the pub run for the first time in its life hasn't correctly picked up a new signal for mobility. How ironic this would be lol when it is normally the most amplified of all runs. I am referring to the mean. 

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I anyone says the gfs 18z is rubbish,....then they need to go to .....

Dominic-Cummings-specsavers-1024x538.thumb.jpg.79cba327c25819e386e5723985068a2e.jpg

 

What to barnard castle. Are the uppers colder there. Sorry couldn’t resist. Happy Christmas everyone 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

Interestingly despite being no where near as interesting synoptically, the 18z GFS is actually both colder and snowier out to 300hrs.

However its synoptically a pretty ugly run compared to what we've been seeing in the past day and the set-up will probably default towards standard fare.

Good ole GFS always finds a way in the end 

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I'm sure Winter 1962 started around a similar time...

The first heavy snow began on the 26-27th December...the rest is History it had a brief respite for a couple of days backend of January before it came back with a vengeance till March 6th. So not much to aim for then is it  

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
4 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

This is the GFS saying. Right people I haven’t got a scooby 

036A21A5-677D-4778-AA7B-393177936937.png

It could very well be or it could be the start of a new trend emerging 

It's probably me worrying too much but we have come so far and this close to things to start to unravel...

I don't think it's a great sign if we start to see a collapse of the Greenland/Atlantic as sooner or later the Atlantic will come back 

It looks like I'm seeing a side of a face

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Doesn’t matter with these runs at the minute whether it’s a big block , small block , wedgey block they all = cold . But people still moan that it’s not that cold and snowy . 

15FC9158-8BDD-4068-8A34-65642B7B1A37.png

EA600CE6-F963-41DB-BCEB-5DF5B18DF4AF.png

90% of the members on here, are here for snow. Not frost, not sleet and definitely not wintry showers.

The Northern Hemisphere synoptically has looked fantastic for weeks now, but there is just no proper cold air about to benefit. 

And that is the bottom line.

Into January, of course things look more encouraging.  But the longer we wait, the more can go wrong.

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I anyone says the gfs 18z is rubbish,....then they need to go to .....

Dominic-Cummings-specsavers-1024x538.thumb.jpg.79cba327c25819e386e5723985068a2e.jpg

 

Thank you for the enthusiasm and enjoyment you bring at a time that we could all do with a mental boost

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

Not a fan of the GFS control either. No latitude to the block and all a bit messy. 

The second bout of amplification is nowhere near nailed on yet. 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It could very well be or it could be the start of a new trend emerging 

It's probably me worrying too much but we have come so far and this close to things to start to unravel...

I don't think it's a great sign if we start to see a collapse of the Greenland/Atlantic as sooner or later the Atlantic will come back 

It looks like I'm seeing a side of a face

 

 

Relax - plenty to be excited for. 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Not a fan of the GFS control either. No latitude to the block and all a bit messy. 

The second bout of amplification is nowhere near nailed on yet. 

GFS ensembles in general are much flatter on this suite out to 180hrs it has to be said many runs won't make it this set of ensembles.

Doesn't mean all that much though on its own, we will need to see if other suites also continue this adjustment and if it grows in strength in terms of agreement.

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not a fan of the GFS control either. No latitude to the block and all a bit messy. 

The second bout of amplification is nowhere near nailed on yet. 

Think there's only you and I seeing this. Just hope the pub run is as hopeless as ever but...... 

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It could very well be or it could be the start of a new trend emerging 

It's probably me worrying too much but we have come so far and this close to things to start to unravel...

I don't think it's a great sign if we start to see a collapse of the Greenland/Atlantic as sooner or later the Atlantic will come back 

It looks like I'm seeing a side of a face

 

 

FI seems to be predispositioned towards the blocking signal, but I often wonder how much they trend back towards climatology and seasonal forecasts in later stages? 

Probably been debated here countless times. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire

I really do hope the gfs 18z suite is off on one. If not it's going to be a case of playing Elvis's blue Christmas tomorrow. 

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Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.

Very good medium term outlook potentially unfolding. We are at the perfect time of the year for cold pools to set up over Central Europe and even the UK as the days are short and the sun is at its weakest. Any incoming fronts coming to challenge the cold block could end up in some significant snow events. Also the SSW to boot has put a spanner in the cogs of the Atlantic jet and sent it some way south. You can see how some outputs are showing Europe cooling off pretty rapidly and building up cold, despite most of the proper NH cold bottled up over Kamchatsky and E Siberia. 

IMO, probably the best opportunity since the BFTE and years 08/09 or 09/10 for some proper cold. 

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Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Cmon guys controls fine at 192 hours!!lets see how the rest of it goes!!

You're right. The control and mean seem to get out of jail quite rapidly by 192hrs but the crucial period of 150 to 180 was looking decidedly dodgy. As I said though, lets hope it's as p..... d as usual lol. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Not a fan of the GFS control either. No latitude to the block and all a bit messy. 

The second bout of amplification is nowhere near nailed on yet. 

I think it's not that bad mate,maybe the models are underplaying the signal of more heights,that EPS tweet i posted earlier may have some merit

control and mean at 192.

gensnh-0-1-192.thumb.png.a700a7fbf1315e8c18924e7d54d1fa6e.pnggensnh-31-1-192.thumb.png.190e1e611b897e703cefa3555ac20db8.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Beautiful 18z mean. Low slowly filling to the east, air getting colder with snow growing more & more likely as time goes on. 

BEA.thumb.png.5de7241c6e74a5fd609151f534b7fd45.png

I wouldn't worry about the lack of GH, that's the GFS being the GFS. I am fully confident that we'll see a resurgence of height come early January with a GH far more supported by tele-connective signals.

GWO orbit is currently moving through phase 2, this supports the Atlantic high we're seeing in the xmas>new year period before cycling through into phase 3 later, supportive of a Greenland lock. 

GWO_members_current.thumb.png.3e9deb79ea052e55929a96246bd239ae.png

At the same time we've got a strong +EAMT event taking place. Come January, I can't see anything but blocked conditions with growing support for true Greenland blocking, and that's before we even begin taking into account a possible SSW in early Jan. 

Starting cold, turning colder.. and possibly turning colder again. We are in a very, very good position.

 

This is a huge shift in your outlook from only a few days ago, I suspect the Christmas sherry has come out early?  

In all seriousness, great commentary, thank you. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW AND FREEZING TEMPS
  • Location: Hertfordshire
2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Beautiful 18z mean. Low slowly filling to the east, air getting colder with snow growing more & more likely as time goes on. 

BEA.thumb.png.5de7241c6e74a5fd609151f534b7fd45.png

I wouldn't worry about the lack of GH, that's the GFS being the GFS. I am fully confident that we'll see a resurgence of height come early January with a GH far more supported by tele-connective signals.

GWO orbit is currently moving through phase 2, this supports the Atlantic high we're seeing in the xmas>new year period before cycling through into phase 3 later, supportive of a Greenland lock. 

GWO_members_current.thumb.png.3e9deb79ea052e55929a96246bd239ae.png

At the same time we've got a strong +EAMT event taking place. Come January, I can't see anything but blocked conditions with growing support for true Greenland blocking, and that's before we even begin taking into account a possible SSW in early Jan. 

Starting cold, turning colder.. and possibly turning colder again. We are in a very, very good position.

 

And breath . Was panicking then thinking nooooooo and then you posted the mean and it’s lovely. Cheers 

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