Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

[Skullzrulerz]

14 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

models firming up on this low for Monday now. ECM and UKMO have a similar path right through the UK. Sowhere Is going to get a dumping from this. ...

I'm sure a couple of mountain tops around Scotland will have a blast with all that snowfall !!

Meanwhile it will cold rain for the rest

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Aidan from MetO responded to my tweet regarding where they see High pressure more likely.

Where would the high pressure be too?

[Weathizard]

Second day in a row the ECM has been reluctant to clear this LP south and left us under a stagnant pattern for 3/4 days

[winterof79]

Make no bones this is a cracking chart. Vortex awol and our own cold pool which will not be indicated on an 850 chart. 

Edited December 23, 2020 by winterof79

[chionomaniac]

2 minutes ago, Winterdarkness said:

What makes me laugh is everyone was so set on a SSW split and it’s been displaced. Where you all now? Quiet??

How ridiculous to post this. The stratospheric disturbance is still forecast. There is still a significant amount of wave 2 activity - and this is being trop driven. And, if the trop is the driver, then this is where we need to concentrate atm. The strat disruption will help later. So laugh away....

[Harsh Climate]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Its like platting snot.... I'd give up

I've experienced rain with uppers lower than -10 850hpa a few times . Could just imagine their little hearts when they have been out and bought new sledges because the charts are showing say -8 uppers with precipitation around, for it to only be a damp squib.. 

 

It's times like these it's best listen to the old heads on here who have experienced it all! 

[winterof79]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Second day in a row the ECM has been reluctant to clear this LP south and left us under a stagnant pattern for 3/4 days

Stagnant cold mark my words

[Valleyboy]

1 hour ago, Skullzrulerz said:

We want it in the far south west ! 

Time to play the game?

Where is the UK in this chart?

 

Plenty of time, as this is completely wrong.  It will be further south and nowhere near as deep as it’s currently showing.

[Skullzrulerz]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Second day in a row the ECM has been reluctant to clear this LP south and left us under a stagnant pattern for 3/4 days

So what would this mean ? Cold air coming from the north ? What I do noticed there's not as much high pressure around Greenland?

[sheikhy]

Brilliant ecm and also gives snow more widely across england on monday but not the crazy amounts of the 00z!!!

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm sure a couple of mountain tops around Scotland will have a blast with all that snowfall !!

Meanwhile it will cold rain for the rest

Only time will tell. Perhaps you could do a detailed post describing why the algorithms contained in the ECM are incorrect? 

[ICE COLD]

Well I think T192 is a stonker on the NH view

[chionomaniac]

This is the kind of pattern that has #surprises written all over it.  One area has sleety rain, and down the road has a snow fest 

[Daniel*]

That’s more like it - much colder flow would surely be inevitable.

 

[Matt H]

No complaints from me about this stonking t216 chart!

[That ECM]

Just take a second to view this. It could be numerous years before we see it again.

[georgiedre]

1 minute ago, chionomaniac said:

This is the kind of pattern that has #surprises written all over it.  One area has sleety rain, and down the road has a snow fest 

Is that high pressure nudging westwards into scandy ?

[Mike Poole]

6 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Aidan from MetO responded to my tweet regarding where they see High pressure more likely.

Wish the laugh out loud emoji was still available

[Kasim Awan]

Ladies & gentlemen we have a full house.

[ICE COLD]

And T216 is a stormer

[TSNWK]

That will do for a day 9 chart.... 

[booferking]

Not bad we have agreement with the big 2 not often you see this kind of cold chart that far out excited much.

[Daniel*]

ECM followed GFS with Greenland blocking..... interestingly this has some backing by ECM ens.

 

[Tim Bland]

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

And T216 is a stormer

Someone will come on here in a minute and say that is zonal