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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas


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Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
8 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Someone will make a comment about the uppers on this chart in the minute.:drunk-emoji:

Them uppers look a bit marginal

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Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West
9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec 46 is an ens model run ...there is a control but no op 

the control run goes slightly pos AO jan 10 to 25 so no evident repsonse there 

Only 25% +NAO through late Jan tho BA. V low for Jan vs climo

image.thumb.png.dfaba7535818d286954dba56a9ca2c31.png

One day in Early Feb goes down to 15%!

image.thumb.png.f2b90c9f67c4831f0fbdd736ff4dc86b.png

The week 6 mean is a bit meh but looking at the regimes are some really zonal members watering down the mean? Or is there such a huge spread of permutations that the anomalies are weak? 

Edited by Uncertainy
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I may not have posted much recently ( work and family) but I have kept up with most of the output- model, strat and tropical. And I still see the promise ahead that I did earlier this month.  And it is getting closer too. Everything is looking good. No nirvana yet, but the possibility remains with the polar doors opening fully.  So far we have a slight opening, but haven’t worked out exactly where and when. Depends as ever on the alignment of strat, tropical and mid latitude wave forcing combining together.  I am holding back, until I see the EPS strat forecasts somehow.  

Is this the one Ed?

20201221215735-797cc4c0111c4864d7299966d004944ba9d17e11.thumb.png.d78adae996b8b791a72d3beff235a7c6.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Most of the last few days runs haven't needed a shift East or West, that isn't the problem, we needed a shift North of the Atlantic ridge so it encompassed the whole of Greenland, then the minus double digit uppers would have flooded the country and then minor shifts East or West would have only been relevant wrt the detail of where any snow will fall, not whether we got a severe cold spell or just a half baked one.

The GFS was showing stonking blocking around greenland for days yet it couldn't muster a small pocket of -8s let alone anything else!

image.thumb.png.d50d94b8202e9476df172365884f1c48.png

It's simple, the russian high has once again grown in presence which stops the low pushing any further east. The best northerlies have pressure low across almost all of Europe.

image.thumb.png.5c977b90a412d5a15f7f6a61dedad139.png

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is this the one Ed?

20201221215735-797cc4c0111c4864d7299966d004944ba9d17e11.thumb.png.d78adae996b8b791a72d3beff235a7c6.png

 

That is monthly. I wanted to see 12z. I have now. Worry over

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
18 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Seriously Pete the op run looks like a major SSW as taken place and Heights have popped up everywhere, I'm pretty sure the last op run was pretty cold also.Ive not checked the mean yet,but for me that mean just reverts back to the climatology normal when it gets to a certain point.

Aye Matt, it's time we put a stop to the PV... Bring in the heavies? image.thumb.png.d799bfb465338e8fec164853b1aa5b7f.png  

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

More influence from the Arctic high on the pub run, interesting to see how this impacts the run going forward if at all.

61596AAE-5607-4D1B-A29D-3E5F3CC28986.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

What’s do we want from the pub run?

First pint - confirmation that we are still on target for the evolution that was confirmed yesterday, and a scotch egg of course.

Second pint - when the low drops south, it elongates and sinks further south.  Don’t want it ending up looking like a scotch egg!

Third pint - a SSW! 

Last orders folks, need to be out of the pub by 11pm.  Apologies to those in Tier 3/4.  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

That is monthly. I wanted to see 12z. I have now. Worry over

Is there a wide split with daughter vortices wide apart with a stonking big ridge over Greenland encompassing the pole?

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
8 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Precip

gfs-2-72.png

You have to be in it to win it, and I think anyone in Aberdeen or perhaps Norfolk might raise and eye brow, but hey everyone has a clever answer here  

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Is it me or is that Urals block getting stronger on every run

18z v's 12z

gfsnh-0-114.thumb.png.6d9e6af6f5241d2279500dddc3fb8c8c.pnggfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.ab30e5771268de4582c41c1b74f2241d.png

if so,this will force the UK trough further south with heights over the top and then bingo.

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Care to elaborate mate? What you seen? 

A lot of members show U reverse by 4/1 at 10hPA . Berlin has not been able to show us this yet with det as too far away

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
2 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

A lot of members show U reverse by 4/1 at 10hPA . Berlin has not been able to show us this yet with det as too far away

Fantastic. Good to see support for the GEFS then! Thanks mate

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Posted
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and storms
  • Location: Hayward’s Heath - home, Brighton/East Grinstead - work.
4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Is there a wide split with daughter vortices wide apart with a stonking big ridge over Greenland encompassing the pole?

Nope not yet. We have strong initial wave 1 activity with later moderate wave 2. As trends all good

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