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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas


Met4Cast

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Set up is optimal for very slow moving shortwave lows. These can outdo snow forecasts by some amount. I think this needs to be our concern / interest.

They also have a nasty habit of showing up quite late in the day and therefore being poorly forecasted even at short time frames.

I think the setup is primed for snow at least somewhere between 27-30th. I think that's as far as I dare look for now!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

I actually enjoyed the control from the 12z...

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.98b902d5a2b0a0ccf33bb15cc64e0591.png

plenty going on from there.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gefs mean at day ten...

v's the 12z

gensnh-31-1-240.thumb.png.aa44a5ea58ca46de908dc22f6b8ec261.pnggensnh-31-1-252.thumb.png.7d977fa5c77a826d1cb33a84172e2bf5.png

i will take that,...thank you.

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2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

nice overall run- however everything that comes in the cold / 'snowy' GFS runs requires the key of high pressure remaining in situ over Greenland or a wedge over Iceland > even if like the 18z its a low amplitude GH it does the trick-

We are persistently seeing this modelled within the 192 > 240 outputs but once the resolution increases just like today we find energy spilling over the top keeping the high toppling.

It seems our best chance cold for a long while but its not quite falling into place just yet...

So ultimately as a next best we look for the toppling energy to now take on more of a negative alignment (NNW to SSE), the trough energy then becoming isolated by continued wave breaking / amplification. This cutting off helping to develop an easterly component. Plus the trend now for heights to lower around Iberia and suddenly the GEM seems a reasonable shout.

Certainly a predisposition for this amplification atm given the teleconnections etc etc

gem-0-240 (7).png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

nice overall run- however everything that comes in the cold / 'snowy' GFS runs requires the key of high pressure remaining in situ over Greenland or a wedge over Iceland > even if like the 18z its a low amplitude GH it does the trick-

We are persistently seeing this modelled within the 192 > 240 outputs but once the resolution increases just like today we find energy spilling over the top keeping the high toppling.

It seems our best chance cold for a long while but its not quite falling into place just yet...

Agreed.

Still not seeing anything to suggest anything more than a mid-Atlantic high between the xmas-new year period. Ignoring the rest of the run which is just a rinse & repeat pattern. Chilly for sure, perhaps even cold across northern areas, but nothing suggestive of widespread snowfall risks or anything all that out of the ordinary. We can't seem to get any HLB into the reliable. 

Whats exciting me at the moment is the potential stratosphere developments.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
21 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The run to verify ???  

And have miles colder uppers.

28 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

In a quick note ;the Japanese model is held in “high regard “ via - leading meteorological agencies.. as a backing tool within 196hrs against the leading sets.. and those behind closed walls.. just putting it out there

That run will either verify or it will be a mile out, there won't be any in between, knowing the JMA as i do.

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
42 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

@Scott Ingham

here is your Griceland high

gfsnh-0-306.thumb.png.9f0cb6629a91c8f6c0a928681c608435.png

Yeah ive just looked at the run late on and this took my eye! Good to see the models finally firming up on this next lot of amplification after the New Year!

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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

The ec 46 is an ens model run ...there is a control but no op 

the control run goes slightly pos AO jan 10 to 25 so no evident repsonse there 

Yes blue,thanks for clearing that up...I do have a bad habit of referring to the control run as the op run. The control did lose its way towards mid month. But there were still a fair few colder members from the 50 out to mid month..But anything beyond 3 weeks becomes pretty pointless if you ask me...an whole range of options are put on the table,and the confidence just decreases by the day.

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

There is some pretty good 18z gefs ens from 240 that break away the UK trough to the south(majority).

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Yes blue,thanks for clearing that up...I do have a bad habit of referring to the control run as the op run. The control did lose its way towards mid month. But there were still a fair few colder members from the 50 out to mid month..But anything beyond 3 weeks becomes pretty pointless if you ask me...an whole range of options are put on the table,and the confidence just decreases by the day.

And the strat ob's are increasing by the day,in a good way☺️

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

There is some pretty good 18z gefs ens from 240 that break away the UK trough to the south(majority).

 

There are some pretty good synoptics for sure si...but have you noticed how poor the uppers are on many of those ens,at least 20 of them...

Ohh good lord,I hear you say....don't get folks started on them uppers again...perhaps we should start referring them to downers,cause that's how I feel when I keep hearing about em.. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: North West of Ireland
  • Location: North West of Ireland

I'm not seeing this Greenland High develop that some are talking about in FI, it just seems like it will be another mid atlantic ridge that can't quite make it to Greenland. I'm happy to be wrong about this.

 

Edited by Bricriu
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
3 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

There are some pretty good synoptics for sure si...but have you noticed how poor the uppers are on many of those ens,at least 20 of them...

Ohh good lord,I hear you say....don't get folks started on them uppers again...perhaps we should start referring them to downers,cause that's how I feel when I keep hearing about em.. 

 

I wouldn't worry about the uppers that far out Matt,they could be showing -20 or +20...

i would pick the middle solution,...0c☺️

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

In a North westerly altitude will almost always play a big part.

Certainly those of in the North West face the Irish Sea which does us no favours,esp nearer to the coast you head.

For me, its easterlies every single time.

I appreciate those in NW Scotland might feel differently, horses for courses I guess.

Be nice to have a cold Christmas either way..

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
59 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Well TI its seasonal iteration gave us the most blocked pattern in its November run before it got cold (warm?) feet in December.
 

image.thumb.png.8a3fedf8a103c23f4167db915b035e6d.png

If the general output for the next 3-4 weeks comes off  as the anomalies suggest and Feb doesn’t go all 2020 on us then that run might well have been spot on.

 

That run is spot on so far! Even with the Ural and european blocking! 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
1 hour ago, Allseasons-si said:

Beautiful run this,colder uppers coming in from the NE

gfsnh-0-324.thumb.png.ad4b927e24876adf43c8294100d61d0c.pnggfsnh-1-324.thumb.png.aa7ba31de5d8230aa37006f80ef5a004.png

and where has that pac ridge come from?

 

From the EAMT! This event is massive btw. Very big with 1070mb in pressure!

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe

Met4Cast is correct when he said there is no Greenland high forecast and its just an Atlantic ridge heading into Greenland and that is what I'm seeing. What orientation that ridge will end up as and how far it heads into Greenland remains to be seen but it does seem to be a big ask to get uppers of below - 5 in this set up regardless. That said, even if we got uppers of -10 I would still be cautious and not believe it until its closer to the time so things could change for the better but the overwhelming evidence would suggest that won't be the case. 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
59 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

I actually enjoyed the control from the 12z...

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.98b902d5a2b0a0ccf33bb15cc64e0591.png

plenty going on from there.

Now THIS is exactly what i meant by Griceland high. This is the evolution ive had in my head for two weeks and where i think and hope we head next

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Still a good tight cluster on the 18z gefs ens diagrams

my local and London

graphe3_10000_265_33___.thumb.png.3a010de16834d503be6f0a1ca2b229f2.pnggraphe3_10000_312_143___.thumb.png.21a4384a5a1b0c3b16fee1d235bb99a3.png

i wouldn't worry about the noise at the end,that's fl,a pretty good snow row too.

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London

Icon 0z early doors vs previous Icon run- Another slight enhancement to the "Griceland" ridge slightly more expansive and a tad further north also and, and the low marginally further SE

20201222_033339.jpg

20201222_033357.jpg

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
5 hours ago, Geordiesnow said:

Met4Cast is correct when he said there is no Greenland high forecast and its just an Atlantic ridge heading into Greenland and that is what I'm seeing. What orientation that ridge will end up as and how far it heads into Greenland remains to be seen but it does seem to be a big ask to get uppers of below - 5 in this set up regardless. That said, even if we got uppers of -10 I would still be cautious and not believe it until its closer to the time so things could change for the better but the overwhelming evidence would suggest that won't be the case. 

 

There does seem to be as always a watering down nearer the time of  very eye catching outlook. That said I still think there will be some wintry weather esp with Altitude as noted by North West. Any widespread snow atm looks a long shot imo. The Atlantic isn't pushing threw on its normal route which is always great going forward. Very fluid atm so things subject to change but not a bad nhp by any means. To note the 10hpa temps are still looking OK in regard to the strat and tempering the PV altho no ssw imminent. Surprise snowfall possible in the slack cold air and given dew points mabye a good few surprises hopefully

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Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry

Very quiet this morning considering the output, GFS is very close to something special, won't take much adjustment east of that "true Greenland high"

I have been impressed with the consistency of the GFS, can't remember so many runs where it churns out similar output past 192.

Ukmo looks decent too, will be interested to see the ECM at 192, I suspect it will move to the GFS again.

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Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

Just as a quick side note the oz control on gfs looks a belter way in fi. Great 850s heading in and plenty on offer

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