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Model output discussion - The run up to Christmas

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

You don't need the 850s to know that isn't great especially the further South and East you go.

The hills and mountains of the North are going to have white out blizzard conditions for sure.

Northern Ireland could do well but as it’s still 6 days out and likely to be a “now cast” for many locations I really don’t understand the detailed analysis of snow at this point.

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Are we looking at the same charts? The Uppers are shocking poor 

Going to have a shot of vodka every time someone makes this comment, if I disappear in 10 minutes time you know what’s happened.:drunk-emoji:

In all seriousness though everyone knows by now that the uppers could be better, and I agree, but it has been said countless times over the past few days so it’s nothing new.

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The Beast From The East Community Regular

The Beast From The East

Posted
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,Snow & Snow.
  • Location: Maidstone ❄kent❄
Posted

Quick question, 

Anyone know why Steve Murr isn't posting much lately?  Really missing his post and the way he explains what the models are showing and what he belives will happen..

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted
1 minute ago, The BEAST From The East said:

Quick question, 

Anyone know why Steve Murr isn't posting much lately?  Really missing his post and the way he explains what the models are showing and what he belives will happen..

I think he said that he was spending more time with his family.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

Polar low "ALERT"...

gfseu-0-174.thumb.png.99f360e2256571c05e494b288e0bb85b.png

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Popular Post
Posted

Well I’m personally bagging UKM144 for the general macro sysoptics.. perfectly content to work on the detail next couple of day see if we squeeze another couple of points on 850.. gfs is stretching the trough a tad more on this I see from around 150.

ps I notice -10 patch over north east England for Xmas evening.. when over the week we were having the same conversations on uppers being poor.. for Christmas the statement of fact is that have trended colder as we got nearer..

I hope we do the same post Christmas and think it realistic to hope that

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lawrenk Veteran

lawrenk

Posted
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow and ice days
  • Location: Hailsham, East Sussex
Posted
1 hour ago, terrier said:

Can’t see much in the way of lowland snowfall in this set up but I will happily be proved wrong. All I’m trying to say is away from Scotland and northern hills I can’t see much but rain and sleet for many.

Can you give us a heads up for how you think higher ground in Scotland will do?

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Geordiesnow Accomplished

Geordiesnow

Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
Posted
6 minutes ago, seabreeze86 said:

Christmas Eve now looking really interesting down the east coast.Uppers values plenty low enough for snow. These have constantly upgraded on the GFS as we have gotten near the time as they tend to do if it’s not a north westerly 

821A0B49-04F0-4161-8205-44B098AFF82B.png

Yep the initial upper air temperatures have marginally upgraded in the past few days and whilst the window for convective showers is small, there should definately be some heavy snow showers down eastern areas. Whether any will settle during daylight hours is debatable but some parts in the east could well wake up to a covering of snow on Xmas day. 

As for the 2nd event, well I'm a bit more underwhelmed and a lack of cold air could well be an issue here, just typical there was no real PV over Greenland before the forecast ridge because if there was, the uppers are bound to be colder. Like at the start of the month, we are feeding on scraps unfortunately and perhaps a set up 40 years ago would deliver more than what the models are currently showing. Still time for upgrades(and downgrades) mind but you can't hide behind the fact a good set up is no good if the air is not cold enough. 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Interesting little feature just to the west of southern Greenland. JFF look at Scotland 

95C00835-A3DD-4627-ADB8-180D6010040E.png

6AC0CAD3-E5AF-4010-BE88-B969101A72D8.png

Edited by That ECM
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goosey007 Community Regular

goosey007

Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Interesting little feature just to the west of southern Greenland.

95C00835-A3DD-4627-ADB8-180D6010040E.png

Slider 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Interesting little feature just to the west of southern Greenland.

95C00835-A3DD-4627-ADB8-180D6010040E.png

Yep.. I noticed that little chappy...pop up on the 12z..

trigger, slider, or spoiler shortwave or a damp fart.. all to revelled in next 20 mins

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Mair Snaw Veteran

Mair Snaw

Posted
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
  • Weather Preferences: SNAW
  • Location: Oyne Aberdeenshire 120m asl
Posted
1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

Slider 

Oh no not a slider.... here we go again, will it wont it? Its north no its south

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Beauttyyy of a 12z gfs so far!!!like the 06z but more wedgey across the iceland area!!over to ecm to finish this off today

And what about the 18z Shaky!

or do you go to bed early

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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted

Very low heights and with the low centred over the U.K. with 850s around -4c. Plenty of showers or longer spells of precipitation that could turn to snow in the right circumstances.

Day 6

GFS

image.thumb.png.0c35a76d5d2b0b7bfe50cefb19fce842.png
 

UKMO

image.thumb.gif.e90a66cba4246962f075e78c33281f54.gif

Keep expectations low, there could be some surprises, especially if conditions fall slack within the low centre. Beyond this, good chance that the trough will sharpen with a northerly developing in some guise. Hemispheric pattern looks promising longer term too....

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goosey007 Community Regular

goosey007

Posted
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
  • Weather Preferences: Blizzards in winter Hot and sunny in summer...other is simply boring!!
  • Location: Rogerstone/Risca South Wales
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Oh no not a slider.... here we go again, will it wont it? Its north no its south

Cant beat a good slider...delivered jan 2013 for south Wales south west predominantly....

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sheikhy Maestro

sheikhy

Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
Posted
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

And what about the 18z Shaky!

or do you go to bed early

Well i will be awake but i feel we got this in the bag now!!if ecm 12z looks like either ukmo or gfs then we just gota countdown to this potential snowy cold spell of weather!!!how often do i say that now!!!but dont you worry i will be taking a look at the watershed 18z just so it can add its frosting on top of the cake❄

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
4 minutes ago, Mair Snaw said:

Oh no not a slider.... here we go again, will it wont it? Its north no its south

Yep,... of the M4

certainly looks like it would be a slider,yesterday's run(i think it was the 18z run) showed a similar scenario.

yes it was.

gfsnh-0-246.thumb.png.6d26eb775c1f72746b94835d97ba08f2.png

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Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

GEM 12z has also broadly come into line with the other models now out to t144!:santa-emoji:

0FE2D62A-9A34-445C-8604-652450C51C2C.png

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Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted (edited)

well... I would say that GFS made a leap towards EC 00z

spacer.pngspacer.png

Edited by Vikos
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The Northern Ramper Accomplished

The Northern Ramper

Posted
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Newhey, Lancashire ( 165m a/s/l )
Posted
32 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The UKMO 144 chart would not produce widespread snow.

I’d take my chances

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