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January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Erith. SE London/kent 40m asl

    2c and 89mm please.

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    1.0c to the 8th 2.5c below the 61 to 90 average 3.3c below the 81 to 10 average ___________________________ Current high this month 1.7c on the 5th, 6th & 7th Current low this m

    Here's the January CET projection (with 5 day GFS forecast) and probability distribution   At the moment, we have >80% chance of finishing between 2.0C and 5.0C The chances of finish

    Here's the latest forecast and probabilities   At the moment, we have 86% chance of finishing between 1.5C and 4.5C The chances of finishing: Close to average (3.9 to 4.9C) is 17.3% (

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    22 hours ago, General Cluster said:

    Although I'd love to see a cake-and-eat-it January (CET of -1C and 150mm' 'rainfall') I'll take a more pragmatic approach:

    1.9C and 55mm please, Roger.🙏

    I think I'll up my CET guess to 3.1C Roger, but stick with the 55mm snowfall rainfall.

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    Posted
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Hot sunny , cold and snowy, thunderstorms
  • Location: Weston-S-Mare North Somerset

    I think I'll change mine to 3.5c and 57mm please. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire
  • Location: Skirlaugh, East Yorkshire

    Slightly cooler than average with close to average rainfall:

    3.8C and 97mm

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    Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

    Last colder than average January was in 2013, due a colder than average one I feel. 2011 and 2013 produced slightly below average values, and the last very cold January was in 2010.

    Its been over 40 years since we had a sub zero Jan, again time for one of them, Feb last did in 1986, December as recent as 2010.

    Current forecasts suggest a higher than average chance of a below average mean against 61-90. There is a chance things may not quite pan out and we end up on the milder side of the jet, but my prediction is for a below average January, safe option would be to go just a bit below, but colder than 2011 and 2013, so I'll say 3.3 degrees. 

    There is a possibility we could see something notably closer rivalling 2010 perhaps, if the effects of temp changes in the Stratosphere downwell quick and lock us into a cold pattern. 

    In terms of weather - we could be on course for a notably sunny month, which would be areal tonic given how gloomy January usually is, and especially this year given all the other things we are having to deal with. Could also be drier than usual for north west parts, so hopefully no flooding and storm misery, but we may exchange this for 'snow misery' possibly. I'm thinking how fortunate again things seem to be panning out this year weatherwise given the restrictions etc, great weather for getting out and about, just as in March - May, a flip to mostly dry sunny cold and bit of wintry weather - it could be so so much worse, and in many recent years has been. Seems the weather gods are doing us a favour.. vitamin D from the Sun is what we need now, and I'm storing it up!

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    Posted
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Frosty and fresh
  • Location: Staffordshire moorlands 252m asl

    1.3c and 73mm

    For me please

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    Posted
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport
  • Weather Preferences: Warm & Sunny in Summer, Cold & Frosty in Winter, Thunderstorms
  • Location: Near Leeds Bradford Airport

    Can I change mine to 2.9C and 70mm please? Thank you! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)
  • Weather Preferences: Unseasonably cold weather (at all times of year), wind, and thunderstorms.
  • Location: Edinburgh (previously Chelmsford and Birmingham)

    Used to downgrades and the Atlantic smashing through so will go for 4.4C and hope that I end up bottom of the pack. As for rainfall, I'll plump for 110mm.

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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey

    Very tough call.  I note BFTV and Quicksilver’s low CETs.....very interesting, cold definitely extending further into Jan than thought with the La Niña which isn’t a player currently.  Will post before Big Ben chimes

     

    BFTP
     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Ok, with January looking potentially cold, I will go for 2.9C and 65mm, please.  I think this is my coldest January prediction since 2010!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow
  • Weather Preferences: Snow,snow and....a bit more snow
  • Location: Helensburgh,22 miles from Glasgow

    4.1c and 100 mm thank you please

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    Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.

    Frosty and hopefully snowy January. 1.5c and 75mm. Happy new year to all.

     

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    I remember how tricky it was to get a CET under 3.0c and generally that is still the case.

    So while a cold and dry start to the month seems likely, I think this  will be partly offset by more normal conditions for the second half of the month.

    So 3.5c and 65mm for me.

    Edited by J10
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Change to 2.4c please, rainfall unchanged at 80mm.

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