January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Don]

14 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

Although January 2021 will be seen as a cold month by today's standards, in actual fact, pre 1988, it would have only been somewhat below average.  The 1991-20 January average is 4.7*C, 1981-2010 4.4*C, 1971-2000 4.2*C, 1961-90 3.8*C, 1951-80 3.6*C, 1941-70 3.4*C.  This shows that January has changed almost without recognition since the late 1980s.  Up until the 1980s a low 3s January CET would have been only slightly colder than average, whereas it is a cold month by recent year's standards, which puts into perspective that by historical standards this month would be far from being a notably cold month; since 1987 only January 2010 (1.4  CET ) could reasonably be described as significantly cold, and we have to go back to 1987 and 1985 for anything colder still (both 0.8 CET), and back to 1979 for a January that was a very severe cold month (sub zero CET).

We should at least see the coldest January since 2010 and the first sub 3.5*C January CET also since 2010; we will beat 2013, although coming in under 3.0*C looks unlikely now.  This month will most likely be close to Jan 2009 in terms of the CET but we are unlikely to beat that month. 

My 2.9C guess is going to be close at least for a change!

[Roger J Smith]

6 hours ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looking like finishing well below the 1991-20 average of 4.7c.

Should be comparing with the latest dataset now.

I made the 1991-2020 daily averages and running CET stats available with the usual table posted on the 1st, so we could in fact change to 1991-2020 for our daily comparisons. I have been adding them, would suggest maybe we do both. Also the contest normal has been based on 1981-2010 and will change whenever J10 decides is the right time. My numbers by the way are not official, I think Jan will be officially 4.7 when they announce, some of the 30-year averages I calculated were very close to a rounding point. I think Jan was 4.66 to 4.67 so not in that much danger. Metoffice takes the average of mean daily max and mean daily min to calculate, I don't have those values available so I just take the average of 30 monthly CET (which already did that calculation to get their values). Thinking the metoffice method could nudge some close calls down 0.1 (e.g. 7.52 might be 7.48 in their method, 7.5 would become 7.4). I think we'll see the official numbers soon. 

Since people are predicting an actual value and not an anomaly, it only matters in the abstract (except for the small number of points you get for being correct side of normal). 

[Summer Sun]

3.4c to the 30th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 3.4c on the 21st, 22nd, 29th & 30th
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

[damianslaw]

Thought there may have been a drop today, given maxima yesterday was held down for many. Tomorrow should see a drop to 3.3. degrees I feel, a finish of 3.0 or 3.1 degrees most likely, outside chance may see a 0.3 or 0.4 downward correction to end up on 2.9 degrees, but now feel we may just miss out..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

3 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Thought there may have been a drop today, given maxima yesterday was held down for many. Tomorrow should see a drop to 3.3. degrees I feel, a finish of 3.0 or 3.1 degrees most likely, outside chance may see a 0.3 or 0.4 downward correction to end up on 2.9 degrees, but now feel we may just miss out..

Most parts didn’t have a freezing night. Today’s temperatures should bring a drop.

[snowray]

5 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Thought there may have been a drop today, given maxima yesterday was held down for many. Tomorrow should see a drop to 3.3. degrees I feel, a finish of 3.0 or 3.1 degrees most likely, outside chance may see a 0.3 or 0.4 downward correction to end up on 2.9 degrees, but now feel we may just miss out..

Unfortunately the night temps were on the high side, so not surprised to see another tick up.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Most parts didn’t have a freezing night. Today’s temperatures should bring a drop.

Last night temps were below 0c throughout the CET zone, should see a .1c drop..I’d say that 3.1c looks most likely after corrections.

[damianslaw]

50 / 50 % odds either 3.0 or 3.1 degree finish. Outside 20% chance 2.9 degrees. 

Think we have managed a comfortable sub 3 degree month period 27 Dec - 26 Jan mind. Would be good to know coldest rolling 31 day average so far this season. 

[Frigid]

4 hours ago, snowray said:

Last night temps were below 0c throughout the CET zone, should see a .1c drop..I’d say that 3.1c looks most likely after corrections.

Haven't had a January with a CET of 3.1 since 1832. Could be on the way to break that 

[snowray]

4 hours ago, damianslaw said:

50 / 50 % odds either 3.0 or 3.1 degree finish. Outside 20% chance 2.9 degrees. 

Think we have managed a comfortable sub 3 degree month period 27 Dec - 26 Jan mind. Would be good to know coldest rolling 31 day average so far this season. 

3.3c........5/1

3.2c........2/1

3.1c.........6/4

3c............4/1

2.9c.........7/1

Will have to ask TomSE if them odds look ok.

 

 

Edited January 31, 2021 by snowray

[Relativistic]

13 hours ago, Frigid said:

Haven't had a January with a CET of 3.1 since 1832. Could be on the way to break that 

January confirmed as 3.1C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

[Frigid]

33 minutes ago, Relativistic said:

January confirmed as 3.1C:

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cetml1659on.dat

A whole 3.3c cooler than last January, not bad. If we didn't get that warming at the end of the month, it would've been sub 3 for sure. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Frigid

[BornFromTheVoid]

The final CET came in at 3.1C so, 1.3C below the 81-10 average, 0.7C below the 20th century average and 0.1C above the 19th century average.

Compared with the 81-10 values, there were 9 days above and 22 days below average. One day reached the top 10 warmest (20th), but no days were in the bottom 10 coldest.

[Frigid]

3 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

 

Compared with the 81-10 values, there were 9 days above and 22 days below average. One day reached the top 10 warmest (20th), but no days were in the bottom 10 coldest.

  

Edited February 1, 2021 by Frigid

[Methuselah]

On 31/12/2020 at 11:53, General Cluster said:

I think I'll up my CET guess to 3.1C Roger, but stick with the 55mm snowfall rainfall.

Only the second time in all these years... Shame about the rainfall!

[summer blizzard]

1.6C below the 1991-2020 average. 

[Roger J Smith]

EWP appears to have finished around 142-143 mm, was 141 after 30 days, only Cornwall and parts of Devon saw much measurable rain on 31st, expect tomorrow's final provisional from tracker will add 1-2 mm. Either way, John88b (150 mm) has high score for January, second will be close between Polar Gael (151.3 mm) and moffat (130 mm). Some more complete scoring updates tomorrow. 

With CET on 3.1 (and 1832 finally getting some company) the top scores based on table of entries would be these (EWP ranks only noted if better than 25th). Forecasters with lower CET ranks checked for inclusion in best combined, one was tied fourth as indicated in table below.

 

Rank ___ Fcst ___ Err ___ Entry __ Forecaster _____ EWP ___ rank ___ best combined

_ 01 ____ 3.1 ____ 0.0 ___ 29 _____ shillitocettwo __ 105.0 __ 07 _____ 08 total (1st)

_ 02 ____ 3.1 ____ 0.0 ___ 43 _____ General Cluster__ 55.0 __

 

_ 03 ____ 3.0 ____-0.1 ___ 47 _____ B87 ______________30.0 __

_ 04 ____ 3.0 ____-0.1 ___ 65 _____ noname_weather_68.0 __

_ 05 ____ 3.0 ____-0.1 ___ 68 _____ stewfox __________ 75.0 __ 24 ____ 29 total (t 2nd)

_ 06 ____ 2.9 ____-0.2 ___ 15 _____ Frigid _____________35.0 __

_ 07 ____ 2.9 ____-0.2 ___ 28 _____ dancerwithwings _ ------ __

_ 08 ____ 2.9 ____-0.2 ___ 39 _____ Timmytour _______ 77.0 __ 21 ____ 29 total (t 2nd)

_ 09 ____ 2.9 ____-0.2 ___ 41 _____ Mr Maunder _____ 70.0 __ 

_ 10 ____ 3.3 ____+0.2 ___ 52 _____damianslaw _____ ------ __

_ 11 ____ 2.9 ____-0.2 ___ 54 _____ summer18 ______ 70.0 __

_ 12 ____ 2.9 ____-0.2 ___ 57 _____ Don _____________ 65.0 __

_ 13 ____ 2.9 ____-0.2 ___ 61 _____ Mulzy ___________ 75.0 __ 23 _____ 36 (6th)

_ 14 ____ 2.9 ____-0.2 ___ 66 _____ Summer Sun ____ ------ __

_ 15 ____ 2.9 ____-0.2 ___ 73 (L1)_  Norrance _______ 85.0 __ 16 ______ 33* (4th)

( 18th CET 3.5 JeffC was 15th EWP, tied 4th best combined).

____________________________________________

* ranks in both add one for late penalty ... was 4th anyway in best combined (31 or 33).

[Frigid]

For my first CET prediction, think I did decent. EWP is a different story however..

To get a cold month with 142mm rainfall is remarkable 

[summer blizzard]

29 minutes ago, Frigid said:

For my first CET prediction, think I did decent. EWP is a different story however..

To get a cold month with 142mm rainfall is remarkable 

Fairly sure winter 2010 was wetter than average.

[Froze were the Days]

48 minutes ago, Frigid said:

For my first CET prediction, think I did decent. EWP is a different story however..

To get a cold month with 142mm rainfall is remarkable 

Not any more! I've noticed this over the last few years, when we do get cold shots/spells be it in Autumn/Winter/Spring or Summer it is practically always accompanied by trough disruption or stalled low pressure systems close to the UK, very rarely do we get anti-cyclonic cold air masses. In layman's terms you could look at this and say particularly in Winter that 'real' cold is being locked in to the north or east and UK generally on the boundary. 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Froze were the Days

[damianslaw]

A cold winter month by recent 10 year standards. Coldest Jan since 2010, though no where near as cold as then. It has at least felt like January should do.

Pity couldn't scrape into the 2s, it has potential to be a notably cold January but didn't quite go to plan. Strong hallmarks with Jan 2009.

[Walsall Wood Snow]

At 3.1c the only other January, 2021 shares the exact same mean CET with is, 1832.

 

 

Edited February 1, 2021 by Walsall Wood Snow

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Frigid said:

For my first CET prediction, think I did decent. EWP is a different story however..

To get a cold month with 142mm rainfall is remarkable 

January 1979 was even more remarkable , that was sub zero for CET and yet recorded 89.6mm for England and Wales

 

[SnOwFeSt]

Seems to be a bit of a north south divide. Up here in Leeds it has been a very cold and snowy winter so far.

Just 7 above average days, 12 max temps below 2c, 22 min temps below 0 and 3 ice days and (from vague memory) at least 8 days with at least 50% snow cover.

Our average temp for the month was 1.84. 

Remove the 4 warmest days and the average for the month would have 1.1c

[Weather-history]

Here's one peculiar quirk, the last notably above average January for an odd number year was in 2007 with 7.0C

2009: 3.0C

2011: 3.7C

2013: 3.2C

2015: 4.4C

2017: 4.0C

2019: 4.0C

2021: 3.1C

The even year Januarys  since 2010

2012: 5.4C

2014: 5.7C

2016: 5.4C

2018: 5.3C

2020: 6.4C