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January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests


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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Looking much milder than I had anticipated next 2 to 3 days in CET zone, widespread maxima in double figures, so a climb on the way, perhaps as high as 3.3 degrees by Saturday, Sat and Sunday still likely to be average or bit below so a drop to 3.2 degrees. 25% chance 2.9 degrees, 75% chance 3 or 3.1 finish I say.

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary

In terms of mild days, using a daily mean >8C during DJF for this, the graph below shows the long term trends.

Winter_fgr8.thumb.png.0b1424581f292a524fb8de725a989f62.png

So far this winter, just 4 such days. The 91-20 average is 13. The lowest values during that time were for 2009/2010 and 1990/1991, just 3 such days. The highest number was 31, in 2014/15

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP continues to head for an outcome near 140 mm, according to 4.5d GFS projection (35-45 mm) added to current estimated value of 105 mm (99 to 25th). 

Top twenty wet Januaries since 1766 to show potential for this month's eventual ranking. 

(edit 5 Feb _ the official value is 144.2 mm for 2021, remains in 13th place as estimated previously)

Rank ___ Year ____ EWP _________________ Rank ___ Year ____ EWP

_01 ____ 2014 ____ 184.6 mm ____________ 11 ____ 1877 ____ 146.8 mm

_02 ____ 1948 ____ 176.8 mm ____________ 12 ____ 2009 ____ 144.9 mm

_03 ____ 1988 ____ 169.0 mm ____________ 13 ____ 2021 ____ 144.2 mm

_04 ____ 1995 ____ 162.6 mm ____________ 14 ____ 1872 ____ 140.2 mm

_05 ____ 1928 ____ 160.3 mm ____________ 15 ____ 1852 ____ 136.6 mm

_06 ____ 1939 ____ 156.2 mm ____________ 16 ____ 1906 ____ 135.7 mm

_07 ____ 1834 ____ 149.8 mm ____________ 17 ____ 1809 ____ 134.3 mm

_08 ____ 2016 ____ 149.5 mm ____________ 18 ____ 1994 ____ 131.0 mm

_09 ____ 1984 ____ 149.3 mm ____________ 19 ____ 1937 ____ 129.0 mm

_10 ____ 1943 ____ 147.1 mm ____________ 20 ____ 1904 ____ 128.8 mm

_____________________________________________________________

current 20th is 1999 at 128.6 mm. 

In general the distribution of wet Januaries is more skewed towards recent decades than many other months. In the above list, assuming 2021 qualifies, that would make it the ninth to make the top 21 since 1980 (which is only about 15% of the time since observations began, at random one would expect only three years in any forty year interval.

Edited by Roger J Smith
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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
6 hours ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

In terms of mild days, using a daily mean >8C during DJF for this, the graph below shows the long term trends.

Winter_fgr8.thumb.png.0b1424581f292a524fb8de725a989f62.png

So far this winter, just 4 such days. The 91-20 average is 13. The lowest values during that time were for 2009/2010 and 1990/1991, just 3 such days. The highest number was 31, in 2014/15

Surprised winter 15/16 didn't record highest number, given how mild December was. Also last winter as well.. 2014/2015 I remember brought many very near average days and ended up very near average with no notable warmth from memory.. 2013/2014 also was exceptionally mild, is 14/15 right?

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Posted
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, Snow, Windstorms and Thunderstorms
  • Location: Ireland, probably South Tipperary
2 hours ago, damianslaw said:

Surprised winter 15/16 didn't record highest number, given how mild December was. Also last winter as well.. 2014/2015 I remember brought many very near average days and ended up very near average with no notable warmth from memory.. 2013/2014 also was exceptionally mild, is 14/15 right?

You're correct, I misread the data. Should have been 2015/16.

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Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex

12-14c widely in the CET zone at 2pm, crazy. 

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 2.6C -1.8C below normal. Rainfall 134.7mm 166.3% of the monthly average.

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
5 hours ago, snowray said:

12-14c widely in the CET zone at 2pm, crazy. 

Quite a marked north-south temp contrast today, our max was only 6.5 degrees, just on the boundary between the cold and milder air.

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.1c to the 27th

0.7c below the 61 to 90 average
1.3c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 3.4c on the 21st & 22nd
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield at 2.8C -1.6C below normal, Rainfall 145.8mm 180% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Think we are on 3.3 degrees today, yesterday was very mild indeed, so not surprised. Probably another rise to 3.4 degrees tomorrow, then a drop to 3.3 degrees, marked adjustments thereafter.. can we go into the 2s just, a tall order, expecting a final figure of 3.0 or 3.1 degrees.

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

EWP now around 130 mm (120 mm to 27th), still on track to finish around 140 mm (about 13th wettest January of the 256 measured).

Will edit in CET update if I don't see one from Summer Sun by midnight just for continuity. 

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Posted
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada
  • Location: Rossland BC Canada

Okay then, for continuity purposes _ CET was

3.3c to the 28th

0.5c below the 61 to 90 average
1.1c below the 81 to 10 average

1.4 c below the 91 to 20 average

___________________________

Current high this month 3.4c on the 21st & 22nd
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

3.4c to the 29th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average
1.0c below the 81 to 10 average

___________________________

Current high this month 3.4c on the 21st, 22nd & 29th
Current low this month 0.5c on the 1st & 2nd

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Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

3.4c to the 29th

0.4c below the 61 to 90 average

That's the most important anomaly to me!...still can't get a meaningful anomaly under -1c for that series for a winter month and you have to go back over a decade to do so, but hit and miss whether we'll make it for this month.

Edited by Froze were the Days
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Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield

Sunny Sheffield up to 2.9C  -1.4C below normal Rainfall 145.8mm 197.3% of the monthly average

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Posted
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl
  • Location: Windermere 120m asl

Should see a drop today and tomorrow, many parts struggling to reach maxims above 4 degrees. Still a chance could just nudge into the 2s but safe bet 3 or 3.1 degree finish.

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Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
3 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

That's the most important anomaly to me!...still can't get a meaningful anomaly under -1c for that series for a winter month and you have to go back over a decade to do so, but hit and miss whether we'll make it for this month.

It’s not going to be easy beating older averages when winters used to be colder on average without the global warming.

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Posted
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
  • Location: Longden, Shropshire
1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Looking like finishing well below the 1991-20 average of 4.7c.

Should be comparing with the latest dataset now.

Indeed, January 2021 will definitely be a cold month compared to the most recent 30 year average at 1.6-1.8C below normal.  If we had a January with the same anomaly 30 years ago compared to the 61-90 average, the CET would have come out around 2C, highlighting the 1C warming since the 1960's!

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Posted
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Ossett, West Yorkshire

Although January 2021 will be seen as a cold month by today's standards, in actual fact, pre 1988, it would have only been somewhat below average.  The 1991-20 January average is 4.7*C, 1981-2010 4.4*C, 1971-2000 4.2*C, 1961-90 3.8*C, 1951-80 3.6*C, 1941-70 3.4*C.  This shows that January has changed almost without recognition since the late 1980s.  Up until the 1980s a low 3s January CET would have been only slightly colder than average, whereas it is a cold month by recent year's standards, which puts into perspective that by historical standards this month would be far from being a notably cold month; since 1987 only January 2010 (1.4  CET ) could reasonably be described as significantly cold, and we have to go back to 1987 and 1985 for anything colder still (both 0.8 CET), and back to 1979 for a January that was a very severe cold month (sub zero CET).

We should at least see the coldest January since 2010 and the first sub 3.5*C January CET also since 2010; we will beat 2013, although coming in under 3.0*C looks unlikely now.  This month will most likely be close to Jan 2009 in terms of the CET but we are unlikely to beat that month. 

Edited by North-Easterly Blast
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