January 2021 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Roger J Smith]

New feature -- Defending champions from Jan 2020

C.E.T. --- I Remember Atlantic 252

EWP ---- DiagonalRedLine

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(a) January CET forecast contest

__ __ averages and extremes __ __

(including all CET values since 1981)

bold type -- warmest 13 italic type middle 14 and underlined type coldest 13. 

 

11.6 .. warmest daily CET mean (3rd, 1932 and 23rd, 1834 and 25th, 2016)

 8.0 ..
 7.9
 7.8
 7.7
 7.6
 7.5 ... warmest January (1916)
 7.4
 7.3 ... second warmest (1796 & 1921)
 7.2
 7.1 ... fourth warmest (1834)

 7.0 ... fifth warmest, and warmest since 1921 (2007)
 6.9 ... sixth warmest (1733)
 6.8 ... seventh warmest (1975)
 6.7 ... eighth warmest (1983)
 6.6 ... tied ninth warmest (1898, 2008.)
 6.5 ... tied eleventh warmest (1686, 1884, 1990)
 6.4 ... tied fourteenth warmest (1736, 1875, 2020)
 6.3 ... tied seventeenth warmest (1846, 1932)
 6.2 ... nineteenth warmest (1737)
 6.1 ... twentieth warmest (1989)
 
 6.0 ... three tied for 21th warmest (1682, 1708, 2005)
 5.9 ... four tied for 24th warmest (1759, 1974, 1976, 1993)
 5.8 ... three tied for 28th warmest (1804, 1866, 1944)
 5.7 .. 2014 (tied with 1890, 1938 as 31st warmest)
 5.6 ..
 5.5 .. 1999, 2002
 5.4 .. 2012, 2016
 5.3 .. 1988, 1994, 2018

 5.2 .. 1998, 2004
 5.1 ..

 5.0 ..
 4.9 .. 1981, 2000
 4.8 .. 1995

 4.7 .. --- average 1991-2020 --- ... --- average 2001-2020 --- 

... ... this has been the 30-yr average since 1988-2017

 4.6 ..  was the 30-yr average 1986-2015 and 1987-2016.

 4.5 .. 2003

 4.4 .. --- average 1981-2010 ----- and also 2015

 ... ... ... -- also average 1898-1927 and 1910-1939 -- (warmth not reached again until 1979 to 2008)
 4.3 .. 1996, 2006
 4.2 .. --- average 1971-2000 -----
 4.1 ..

 4.0 .. 2017, 2019
 3.9 .. --- average 1901-2000 ----
 3.8 .. --- average 1961-1990 ----- and also 1984
 3.7 .. 1992, 2011
 3.6 ...
 3.5 .. 1986, 2013 ... the 30-yr average as recently as 1958-87 (lowest since 3.3 1941-70)
 3.4 ..
 3.3 .. --- average 1659-2020 (3.28) ----- and also 1991
 3.2 .. 2001

 3.1 .. --- average 1939-1968 --- (lowest 30-year average since 1881-1910)
 3.0 .. --- average 1801-1900 ---- and also 2009
 2.9 .. --- average 1701-1800 ----
 2.8 ..
 2.7
 2.6 .. --- average 1659-1700 ---- and also 1982
 2.5 .. 1997
 2.4 .. --- average 1760-1839 --- (the longest interval for which this was maintained)
 2.3 ..
 2.2 ..
 2.1 ..

 2.0 ... --- average 1766 to 1795 --- coldest 30-year average
 1.9 ..
 1.8 ..
 1.7 ...
 1.6 ...
 1.5 ...
 1.4 ... coldest past 28 yrs (2010) -- tied 64th coldest with 1744
 1.3 ...
 1.2 ...
 1.1 ...
 1.0 ...
 0.9 ...
 0.8 ... coldest past 35 yrs (1985, 1987) -- tied joint 41st coldest with 1768.
 0.7 ...
 0.6 ...
 0.5 ...
 0.4 ...
 0.3 ...
 0.2 ...
 0.1 ...
 0.0 ... four tied at 21st coldest (1660, 1667,1694,1698)
-0.1 ... twentieth coldest (1823)
-0.2 ... nineteenth coldest (1830)
-0.3 ... eighteenth coldest (1820)
-0.4 ... seventeenth coldest, and last subzero January (1979)
-0.5
-0.6 ... sixteenth coldest (1784)
-0.7 ... fifteenth coldest (1879)
-0.8 ... fourteenth coldest (1763)
-0.9 ... thirteenth coldest (1780)
-1.0 ... twelfth coldest (1695)
-1.1
-1.2
-1.3
-1.4 ... eleventh coldest (1940)
-1.5 ... tied for eighth coldest (1709, 1838, 1881)
-1.6 ... seventh coldest (1776) ... six days end of this month were all record low CET values
-1.7
-1.8
-1.9
-2.0 ... sixth coldest (1716)
-2.1 ... fifth coldest, and coldest of 20th century (1963)
-2.2
-2.3
-2.4
-2.5
-2.6
-2.7
-2.8 ... fourth coldest (1740)
-2.9 ... third coldest (1814)
-3.0 ... second coldest (1684)
-3.1 ... coldest January or month (1795)

-7.7 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean since Dec 1981 (12th, 1987)
-8.4 ... coldest daily Jan mean in past 154 yrs (23rd, 1963)

      -- this was the second coldest day in any month and coldest in any Jan since -9.3 on 4 Jan 1867)
..... ..... 12 Dec 1981 at -8.5 was marginally colder, Feb 1895 also below -8 C.,

-11.9 ... coldest daily Jan or any CET mean, 20th 1838

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Enter the temperature forecast contest by end of day Thursday, 31 December (2020) or with increasing time penalties on the first three days of January 2021. 

 

(Optional) EWP forecast contest

-- Predict the January precipitation (snowfall liquid equivalent so for every 10 cm of snow, 10 mm precip on average), the standard we are using for this contest is the Hadley England and Wales Precip (EWP) and here are the averages and extremes (the period of record is 1766 to present) ...

184.6 .. wettest January (2014)

176.8 .. 2nd wettest Jan (1948)

 94.2 .. --- average 1991-2020 ---

 93.0 .. --- average 1981-2010 ---

 81.3 _ average of all data 1766 to 2019

 16.5 .. driest January in recent past (1997) -- 5th driest since these records started in 1766

 15.3 .. second driest January on record (1779)

 04.4 .. driest January (1766)

Notes: The recent past has seen several quite wet months besides 2014, 1988 (169.0 mm) was third wettest, 1995 (162.6 mm) was fourth wettest, and 2016 (149.5 mm) was 8th wettest. Jan 2020 had 82.5 mm, while 2019 was a relatively dry 47.1 mm, and Jan 2018 was slightly wetter than average at 104.5 mm,  2017 produced 79.6 mm and 2015 had 101.0 mm. Dry Januaries have been rare in recent decades. Aside from 1997, the only cases since 1981 to record 40 mm or less include 1987 with 33.9 mm, and 2006 with 31.9 mm. 

To enter the precip contest, forecast the England and Wales precip for Jan 2021, to nearest mm (and tenth if desired). You can add this to your temperature forecast or place it in a separate post. Same deadlines, scoring is to a maximum of 10 points each month. 

__ Good luck !! __ 

Edited December 20, 2020 by Roger J Smith

[Relativistic]

Thanks as usual Roger. I note you've quoted coldest daily CET means of any month, and I think there's a mistake here? The 12th December 1981 was -8.5C, which is colder than the -7.7C and -8.4C you quote from 1987 and 1963. (Maybe I'm misinterpreting something?)

As for my guesses, I shall wait till the end of the month.

[Bobd29]

New year new guess: 3.7C and 78mm please.

[JeffC]

3.5C and 85 mm please

Ta

Edited December 19, 2020 by JeffC

[LetItSnow!]

1.2 and 65mm

[Lettucing Gutted]

9.5C    Last sub -3.0C January in 1795.  Last sub -2.0C and sub -1.0C January in 1963.  Last sub 0C January in 1979.  Last sub 1C January in 1987.  Last sub 2C, last sub 3C and last sub 3.5C January in 2010.

[Roger J Smith]

22 hours ago, Relativistic said:

Thanks as usual Roger. I note you've quoted coldest daily CET means of any month, and I think there's a mistake here? The 12th December 1981 was -8.5C, which is colder than the -7.7C and -8.4C you quote from 1987 and 1963. (Maybe I'm misinterpreting something?)

As for my guesses, I shall wait till the end of the month.

Thanks, I had overlooked the reading in Dec 1981 and previously had a shorter interval quoted since those stats were first used around the 2017 contest (although there was an error in the wording for the 1963 record all along). So I've cleaned that up in the announcement post (I hope). 

Would really like to predict a low CET but nowhere near confident about it at this point. First it has to get cold at all, then ponder how long.

[stewfox]

3.9c 65mm

[Polar Gael]

4.2°C and 151.3mm for me please. 

[Summer18]

3.4C & 77mm please 

[Weather26]

5.6C and 64mm please

[moffat]

4.00 and 130m for me ta

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Eh? did I win Jan last year? never even knew!

4.6C and 35mm

[BlueHedgehog074]

Will got for 4.2*C and 50mm of rain/snow please 

[SteveB]

4.5c and 98mm please

[pegg24]

3.9c 65mm please 

[Typhoon John]

2.1c for now

[virtualsphere]

5.1C and 103mm please

[Captain Shortwave]

Feeling lucky...

0.7c and 25mm of “rain”

[Earthshine]

1.8°C and 60mm

[feb1991blizzard]

might as well get something up while its quiet, probably will change (sorry Roger) but 3.6c and 80mm rain please.

[Frigid]

I have confidence we may get a cold, dry January, so 2.9c and 35mm rain

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

1.7 C and 88.4mm please 

[DogToffee]

2.8°C and 56.3mm please.

[Stationary Front]

I think a possible similarity to winter 1984/1985 so a CET of 0.6 with 78mm please