Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[northwestsnow]

EC is following GFS by whipping those lows into the base of the Troughing...

 

[matty40s]

It will be interesting to see whether the East coast storm changes things for us too.

 

 

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC is following GFS by whipping those lows into the base of the Troughing...

 

Which means bad news ?

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Which means bad news ?

EC looks nice to me ....

Out to day 8...

[alexisj9]

42 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

This ensemble is a lovely example (some others also trying for a similar pattern) 

Yep and fingers crossed, that is what the USA low will do, go SE, but no guarantee of that yet.

[Ice Day]

ECM at 216 vs GFS.  overall, not a bad match at all.... I slightly favour the ECM at this point

   

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks nice to me ....

Out to day 8...

Looks good out to day 9 too NWS,would that runner produce snow on it's northern flank?

it does look marginal though.

[LRD]

ECM 216

Pretty similar to the GFS 12z

I thought GFS was going to topple/collapse the whole thing but didn't. ECM - looks like the Atlantic High is also a quite weak set-up but let's get the amplification in the reliable first and then see what happens

Edited December 14, 2020 by LRD

[That ECM]

[Zak M]

12z ECM @240!!

   

[Matt H]

Just now, Zak M said:

12z ECM @240!!

   

Looks like a good match to the GFS earlier as well!

[LRD]

Decent clearance of the low at 240 on ECM

Pulls a north wind down as shown on GFS. Looks like it will topple though. But, it won't turn out exactly like that so let's worry abut that another day

Overall today has gone ok

[Ice Day]

Not bad at all.  -7 and -8 uppers into Scotland on Christmas Eve with colder to follow given the likely evolution.  

Still lots of water to pass under this particular bridge, but steady as she goes.

[Ventnor Viking]

The ECM 240hr looks good. However, the energy to the west of Greenland/Canada could make any ridging short lived.  

Edited December 14, 2020 by Ventnor Viking

[Daniel*]

Sometimes I don’t know what’s more troubling continuously getting cold outcomes or going from hero to zero with every passing run.  

[sebastiaan1973]

I don't consider this a good run. Europe is covered by mild air. Ridge on the Atl ocean is weak.

[That ECM]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Sometimes I don’t know what’s more troubling continuously getting cold outcomes or going from hero to zero with every passing run.  

Continuity is good. Stops people finding reasons why this model is better than that one etc. To be fair the continuity for a seasonal feel around Christmas has been there for awhile.

Edited December 14, 2020 by That ECM

[Allseasons-Si]

Nothing wrong with the ECM at day ten,...just need to count these charts down to 0 hrs now...

[chris55]

Complicated set up, the trend is no doubt cold eventually, although slow to get there, and this comes with all sorts of potential pitfalls for the enduring coldie!

The initial potential at 144-192 looks to have been displaced by a southwesterly (not unexpected) but the ever present trend thereafter is strong and filled with Xmas joy  

Christmas Eve, “Santa, pop your thermals on!” Looks to be a chilly night ahead and a wonderfully crisp Christmas morning   

 

[northwestsnow]

Cold Christmas Eve anyone??

[Man With Beard]

Beware getting caught up in the finer details of each run at D10. Look for the big picture. Is there a tendency to an Atlantic ridge? Don't look further than that for now. That's all the detail you can hope for.

[Daniel*]

6 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I don't consider this a good run. Europe is covered by mild air. Ridge on the Atl ocean is weak.

The colder air is pushing southeast the timing on this has never changed the UK becomes colder first around 23rd then 1-2 days later much of Europe.

 

[SLEETY]

Might be a white xmas for many,would you believe it,especially if we get any further upgrades

[Tim Bland]

39 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Nothing has changed, no reason why ECM won’t continue cold theme.  But then again .  Cold blast (beast I said but ok with a gruffalo) for Xmas on my sig since September...timing remains the same and hasn’t changed...we close in...

 

BFTP

Sorry mate you don’t get off that easily. It was a Blast / beast’ from the EAST that you forecast. It’s looking better than it was a week ago though! ECM looks like it’s borderline of it will topple or lead to an easterly 

[kold weather]

Very complex pattern seems to be evolving as we head between the 20-25th of December. Mucb depends on how the atlantic low phases with the upper low to our N/NE over that time period and just about any option is still on the table and probably will still be for the next 3-5 days until we should start to close in on some solutions.

Its the sort of set-up where shifted northwards and the country ends up under mild southerlies and quite a wet horrible xmas period. Shift it south and you get cold air over the country and then we run the real risk of getting slider lows coming into play or lows disrupting SE/SSE from the Iceland area.

Way to early to call at the moment. My guess is we do get a NW airflow which brings cold and snow risks for a time near xmas, though I'd guess at this stage it will be followed by a toppler high towards the UK just after xmas. However this guess is probably no better than lifting a finger in the wind frankly at this stage!