Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Cold Winter said:

Just look at this... definitely won’t happen like this, or probably even close, but beautiful to see! I’ll have whatever the 18z is drinking

New signal?

[Matt H]

16 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Looking at some of the current charts i really dont see why people are getting excited over cold rain /sleet on xmas day. The 850s dont look low enough to deliver snow.  Still theres time for things to get colder (or warmer). 

What on earth are you looking at? Are you seriously suggesting that uppers between -4 and -8 aren’t cold enough for snow at the end of December?

[bluearmy]

It’s gone nuts now - clearly overdoing it ahead of tier 3 ........ onto the 00z - sadly after that run the only ways for gfs is downhill ! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

How would one like their PV sliced?

[Vikos]

I saved those charts on my mobile. I am stunned... and somehow frightened. 

[Uncertainty]

@Zak MInteresting to see the JMA evolve like that, I had only looked at the 192

I have seen countless charts like that topple and given the WAA wasn’t massively vertical I thought this one would too, but then we end up with a beautiful chart

Not quite as beautiful as the latter stages of the Siberian high show on the GFS though!

Its amazing how the snow cover advancement through November has finally, after such a sweltering year, cooled the Siberian land mass. According to the good Dr Cohen this has given the Siberian high more vigour this year and indeed, it’s already perturbed the SPV enough to allow us this chance. Even on the 18z you can see how it has linked with the building UK high to form an Uber block. 
 

You can see the link/up around Finland there at day 10. The Arctic high hops in there too. This evolution is perfect for the long game because... As @CreweCold rightfully asserts, this is critical to pump big problems into the stratospheric PV. Will the Siberian high gather itself once more to strike the fatal blow? 

The seasonals say no but the weather folk’s hearts and knowledge say yes!

It’s human vs algorithm for the fate of mid winter! 

 

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

It’s gone nuts now - clearly overdoing it ahead of tier 3 ........ onto the 00z - sadly after that run the only ways for gfs is downhill ! 

Let's just say I will be looking at the 120-144 timeframe from  behind the sofa in the morning 

I'm pretty sure many will be the same,quite a bit can go wrong...

[Snowman.]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Going forward, the strat would be toast on this run

Defo toasty up there, starting to look very promising for late December start of Jan.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

How would one like their PV sliced?

As much as possible with a cherry on top.

[Scott Ingham]

Theres the NEW Year Greenie high at the end.

I just hope we get all that before that!

WOW

With a SSW to definitely follow that wed be in 1963 territory for longevity!

Just musing but if the northern extent of what i can see as a UK high is underestimated more than id imagine that 18z run wouldn't be hugely out of the question but it has to be toned down more than that! Scandi heights are an MJO 6 signal MJO 7 Greenland but id imagine wed need more amplitude of the signal to create this

Edited December 15, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Matt H]

A winter of model watching wouldn’t be complete without a pub run special that goes completely off the rails in FI. Hope the positivity continues on the 00z runs tomorrow. Night all.

Edited December 15, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Cheshire Freeze]

Days 9-16 would surely produce a CET not too much above 0...

[northwestsnow]

GFS 18Z is doing a Phil Collins but you never know !!

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Theres the NEW Year Greenie high at the end.

I just hope we get all that before that!

WOW

With a SSW to definitely follow that wed be in 1963 territory for longevity!

I disagree with the last point Scott, there is no guarantee that the dice will fall kindly after a SSW, it depends what type it is, a split the odds are in our favour, a displacement it’s much more 50/50, if either the ECM 12z of GFS 18z happened (and they are quite different) would you really want to spin the wheel of fortune that is a SSW or keep the status quo?  Of course, we don’t have any choice in the matter so the question is moot.  

[Zak M]

This run is just taking the mickey now...

   

More of a chance of Sheffield Utd winning the league than this coming off

[Ice Day]

OK, now the dust is starting to settle after 'That' GFS' run, let's not forget how the ECM finished this evening:

It would appear that something *maybe* afoot.  

[Snowman.]

End of the GFS run would probably lead to reload from the NE. Extremely large PNA ridge, almost no turning back at that point..

And it wont be there tomorrow morning!

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I disagree with the last point Scott, there is no guarantee that the dice will fall kindly after a SSW, it depends what type it is, a split the odds are in our favour, a displacement it’s much more 50/50, if either the ECM 12z of GFS 18z happened (and they are quite different) would you really want to spin the wheel of fortune that is a SSW or keep the status quo?  Of course, we don’t have any choice in the matter so the question is moot.  

Yeah I take your point on board. Im getting carried away with looking for the Jackpot scrnario. If we did have a split falling in the right place though theres no doubt wed have 4 weeks minimum in a stuck pattern like that. But your senseible head is completely correct. It could indeed scupper this as could the flushing down of zonal winds in the right place which i did call for after the greenie high with a colder shot end of jan

[Ice Day]

And the last one from me tonight, the Control is on the prowl at 216.  

Thank you and goodnight!

[alexisj9]

46 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I’m being unduly pessimistic, T240:

Holds hand up

Me too, did not expect the low to do what it did. Very different senario.

[Tom Jarvis]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

And the last one from me tonight, the Control is on the prowl at 216.  

Thank you and goodnight!

Yep the control is going to show pure filth in FI 

[Tom Jarvis]

 

Christmas snow storm for the SE on the control

[Daniel*]

21 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

How would one like their PV sliced?

Nice to see significant Siberian warming getting closer shortly after day 10 now wave 2 action at end which might ultimately finish it off - we’ll have it.

Edited December 15, 2020 by Daniel*

[northwestsnow]

Oh I do hope GFS is on the right path here...

Thats a pretty locked in cold spell by day 8/9...

Of course we need to get that down to day 4/5 but this has to be the best shot at a cold Christmas for years....

[Cheshire Freeze]

Control at D10!