Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Matt H]

I’ll take this any day of the week vs what was being shown on the 12z earlier. Brilliant chart for Christmas Day!

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Kentspur]

2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Is that an area of snow heading in from the north east on Xmas eve night?

East Coast of Scotland and England with a white Xmas my bet on Norwich and Aberdeen would be on! ❄

[BlueHedgehog074]

Probably a chance of a few snow showers/flurries towards the South-East of the UK on Christmas Day on zee pub run.

 

Edit: Looking at the precipitation charts above, chance of some sheet or snow over North-Eastern UK too. Essentially possibility of something white towards Eastern areas 

Edited December 15, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine

[northwestsnow]

18z would have santa shivering !!

Suddenly...!!

[Cheshire Freeze]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

It's all words under the rainbow...ing great Nick

to peeps,if this comes off it's not a toppler when heights lower to our south.

Maybe EC 46 was on to something for once 

[danm]

33 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

They will factor in GFS much more now MeteoGroup are doing it not the Met Office.  Usually an ECM/GFS blend to their graphics?  

They largely follow the ECM don’t they (MeteoGroup)?

Edited December 15, 2020 by danm

[Mike Poole]

I’m being unduly pessimistic, T240:

Holds hand up

[Zak M]

Just the pub run being the pub run, nothing to see here..

      

[ALL ABOARD]

Much better run than the 12z obviously it has a different setup but baby steps. 

All hypothetical past 240 but could we see a renewed Greenland push on this run? 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

I’ll take this any day of the week vs what was being shown on the 12z earlier. Brilliant chart for Christmas Day!

UK high christmas period. Then renewed retrogression and its what youd expect from the tropical signals

[tight isobar]

The vents are banging.. north sea inflow from the north east.. find a better recipe.. for impactual snow showers... n I’ll cook it !!!

Santa’s sack is full..

Edited December 15, 2020 by tight isobar

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

that’ll be my 8/1 £20 bet won....

 

BFTP

[blizzard81]

38 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

BBC going with GFS over Xmas period with brief cold spell but then getting milder.

Just like they did Christmas 2005 and got their fingers burnt. 

[Weathizard]

Always nice to have another COLD option on the table.

[Uncertainty]

46 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Forum

Calm down!

Christmas week cold if it happens is a bonus from our friend the Arctic High

Background signals peak 2 or 3 days prior to New Year!

Took your advice Scott and took a few days off the models due to the inevitable fluctuations in the modelling in resolving the  Arctic high, extent of Atlantic ridging and the size and shape of the trough exiting the UK - the latter of which gave NW England 80, yes 80 hours of continuous rain on the 13.12.20 GFS 18z

The present GFS  iteration looks like an Xmas day UK high which again would be a fine call Scott. I’ve learnt loads from your input recently mate so keep it up!

None of the above model tribulations have actually been fully resolved but this evening’s trends look good, we have:

 - A stronger Atlantic ridge on the ECM mean at days 8-10 vs this morning, with a better trend for Euro troughing in the extended as BA alluded to - apparent on the GEPS too.

- A glorious ECM op which, despite @Steve Murr’s long shot can’t be discounted. PS Steve whilst I totally understand your family/work based reasoning (am a working single dad myself) to post less, the knowledge, passions and enthusiasm for weather that you and others on this forum share has helped inspire me to learn about Meterology. Any and all input you are able to  continue to give, however infrequent, is very gratefully recieved!

- An improved GFS on the 12z, with these improvements showing up early in the run serving to squash the troublemaker low southwards and build better heights in behind. The southeast almost hits the Jackpot at day 9!

Finally a note on the EC 46, the surface temp anomaly was quite striking for weeks 3 and 4

Week 3

Week 4

Cold becoming quite extensive over NW Europe.
Adds credence to the ‘the best is yet to come’ from this fascinating festive setup we have. 

[Matt H]

3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

Just the pub run being the pub run, nothing to see here..

      

Explicit content warning.

[IDO]

The 18z is what the main 12z gefs cluster were indicating, though variations within that:

...so maybe not too unlikely? 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

UK high christmas period. Then renewed retrogression and its what youd expect from the tropical signals

Yes, that’s what I thought the model was heading to, but got a reaction when I said it, the 25th must be important to some!  T252:

[Vikos]

14 hours ago, Vikos said:

One scenario that could possibly happen in my oppinion...

Hmm, I wasn't so wrong on 6z today in the morning

Edited December 15, 2020 by Vikos

[Allseasons-Si]

@Steve Murr will be happy with this run...,Thames streamer? 

[chionomaniac]

Plenty of time for this to deteriorate before T+0. But I’m optimistic. Plenty of time to improve too.  I don’t worry about 850’s either being marginal, because small shifts here and there can make a big difference. Just be grateful that the PV is still in turmoil and too big a difference compared to the ECM to worry exactly how it will play out. 

[Snowman.]

Russian high competing for the northern hemisphere at this point, very very large!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Is this close enough for a B F T E?

now that’s what I’m after....love the whole run so far.  Trough to East plunging N/S then Easterly with trough to SE.....just wait for an attack now from NW/SE LP towards New Year....this must happen surely...

 BFTP

 

[Zak M]

7 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

that’ll be my 8/1 £20 bet won....

 

BFTP

Looool. That would be utterly insane if your prediction came off. Too bad it’s being shown on the pub run.

On another note, anyone fancy the JMA?

   

[kold weather]

18z GFS op run is somewhat closer to the 12z suite in general was portraying on their runs, with a general trend of some sort of attempted ridging in the Atlantic and probably a toppler set-up bringing cold air down over the Xmas period. Could well see some easterly attempt afterwards

I do agree with what Bluearmy said earlier, its somewhat uncommon to get the motherload on the first attempt, it often takes 2-3 shots to get there unless you have a very powerful blocking signal which IMO isn't quite there *yet*.

I'm getting shades of Xmas 2005 if people remember that far back?!

Edited December 15, 2020 by kold weather