Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[MATTWOLVES 3]

24 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

BBC going with GFS over Xmas period with brief cold spell but then getting milder.

And just to think they used to lead the way in Meteorology!! Now they take the GFS as a gospel run..ECM for me is closer to the mark..Just watch GFS backtrack come the 0z runs.. 

Edit....looks like the Beeb should have waited for the 18z to roll out

Edited December 15, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[Weathizard]

Nice WAA alignment on the GFS, lining up with the ECM at day 8, this looks like it’s only heading in one direction.... ️ 

[frosty ground]

Just now, Weathizard said:

Nice WAA alignment on the GFS, lining up with the ECM at day 8, this looks like it’s only heading in one direction.... ️ 

The low heights to the north of the U.K. is new 

[Weathizard]

Just now, frosty ground said:

The low heights to the north of the U.K. is new 

Yes the 18z does send more energy over the top than the ECM but if the ridge holds up, that could even help us.

[weirpig]

is this high going to scandi?.

[Tom Jarvis]

Look at that low not get past the tip of Greenland. It is key that it stops and heads north like this run. @Steve Murr just like you said that it is good that it doesn’t get past that point. Hope this is is a cracking run. 

[Mike Poole]

GFS pub run T204:

Clean amplification in the Atlantic but this won’t lead to the ECM scenario earlier, it looks like it will topple.  

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looks like a Scandi HP forming after t210....

 BFTP

[Allseasons-Si]

Now the gfs is starting to smell the Santa coffee...

up she goes

blimey gfs,you know how to cause drama don't you.

 

[Man With Beard]

I sense I'm a bit late to the party tonight, but, scrolling through the 51 ECM ensembles individually, I think the wintry nirvana Christmas Days slightly outnumbered the members with a collapsed high, which was nice to see. 

But would it be appropriate to repeat my public health warning that I gave earlier - in the past ten years, North Atlantic highs shown at D9 have had, at a guess, a 50/50 chance of still being there by D5.

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T204:

Clean amplification in the Atlantic but this won’t lead to the ECM scenario earlier, it looks like it will topple.  

If you mean topple into a scandi high then yeah.. 

[That ECM]

[nick sussex]

Unless the GFS now blows a fuse hard to see how you get to mild from its T210 hours chart .

Much sharper with the upstream troughing . Nice run so far .

[Tom Jarvis]

1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T204:

Clean amplification in the Atlantic but this won’t lead to the ECM scenario earlier, it looks like it will topple.  

Mike it’s shouldn’t topple as there are low heights supporting it at the base 

[IDO]

Not sure if this run will be repeated as it has the Azores cut-off low further north than the 12z and ecm does not even have this feature (d8-9):

gfs 18z  gfs 12z

ecm 12z>

...yet another solution!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS pub run T204:

Clean amplification in the Atlantic but this won’t lead to the ECM scenario earlier, it looks like it will topple.  

It isn’t toppling

 

BFTP

 

[Ice Day]

Well the GFS at 210 compared to ECM for the same period are both showing some decent Atlantic amplification

   

Are they overblowing it as they have a tendency to do, or is this the start of something 'interesting'?  

[Team Jo]

Evening all-  beeb/met commentary typically doesn’t live in here so further posts will  get moved.

what I will say is that we’re all looking at data. Future Data that’s open to interpretation because, well, it’s not happened yet. So calling that winter might be over/ cold spell is up the creek etc etc based on ONE GFS run, one met update, one bbc forecast is pretty futile. Honestly, looking at overarching themes and patterns is much less stressful.

[Bartlett High]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Now the gfs is starting to smell the Santa coffee...

up she goes

blimey gfs,you know how to cause drama don't you.

 

This chart kind of reminds me of December 1981!

[Johnp]

Is that an area of snow heading in from the north east on Xmas eve night?

[WxHerts]

This is what you call an upgrade folks

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, Tom Jarvis said:

Mike it’s shouldn’t topple as there are low heights supporting it at the base 

Still think we end up with UK high, here T222:

[northwestsnow]

GFS is looking tremendous...

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Unless the GFS now blows a fuse hard to see how you get to mild from its T210 hours chart .

Much sharper with the upstream troughing . Nice run so far .

It's all words under the rainbow,it's...ing great Nick

to peeps,if this comes off it's not a toppler when heights lower to our south.

Edited December 15, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[tight isobar]

Thought provoking!! That’s gotten ebb/n/wave inflow all over it..@-8-850 overheads... par-convevtion..!!!!.. keep watching