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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

Paul

By Paul
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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Forum

Calm down!

Christmas week cold if it happens is a bonus from our friend the Arctic High

Background signals peak 2 or 3 days prior to New Year!

Calm down? In winter?  

Christmas week does look cold any which way, but that’s not to mean snow, which is what most want.  

Background signals, yes I understand this but there’s a lot of uncertainty along with that, as I’m sure you are aware.

Most on here would take @Steve Murr 15/1 shot on the ECM 12z evolution, and then lick their wounds when it didn’t happen. 

Pub run rolling...

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DanDorsetUK Community Regular

DanDorsetUK

Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
Posted
4 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Forum

Calm down!

Christmas week cold if it happens is a bonus from our friend the Arctic High

Background signals peak 2 or 3 days prior to New Year!

Complety agree with this, which coresponds with video presentation I posted this afternoon. First week of January is where there is alot of interest. 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

I can’t really add much to the great discussion, however, the latest models are really giving me the BLUES..but in a good way..indeed the darker the shades of blue ..the better!!:santa-emoji:

AC4F6CF5-EE46-446E-BC8C-8E596029A968.thumb.gif.0e11d48231f41d689d9e4e0eca899a3d.gif0A94DA62-49CC-4ABA-92F3-C2EA7A2B72E1.thumb.gif.3d312573b7db1b1a55c1a2c3366aca2f.gif

 

Lovely stuff from the ECM 12z op / mean..would be perfect timing for crimbo!:reindeer-emoji:  ❄️ 
48DE22F1-4942-42E7-8686-87BCBC65DBA7.jpeg.97c771ed7ea4b01fade0a03ad6d2e0a3.jpeg

 

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Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
7 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Forum

Calm down!

You clearly haven’t been around enough on this forum to know you haven’t got a chance of that happening, you wait to see when we have 2000+ peps on here

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Calm down? In winter?  

Christmas week does look cold any which way, but that’s not to mean snow, which is what most want.  

Background signals, yes I understand this but there’s a lot of uncertainty along with that, as I’m sure you are aware.

Most on here would take @Steve Murr 15/1 shot on the ECM 12z evolution, and then lick their wounds when it didn’t happen. 

Pub run rolling...

Theres not a lot of uncertainty. There is a little. There is still big chances of help from the MJO and we have an ongoing and soon to come EAMT event but the lag from this was always after Christmas week. Steves 15/1 chance has come from an unexpected arctic high but these are the hardest things to forecast. Look at the two clusters posted above. One sees it join the scrussian high 34 members. The other sees it join the Greenland High (17 members) we need yo hope the 17 out of 51 have it right but its an arctic high!

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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

You clearly haven’t been around enough on this forum to know you haven’t got a chance of that happening, you wait to see when we have 2000+ peps on here

Ive actually been in the background since studying the weather in 2009 so i should know better really!

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Theres not a lot of uncertainty. There is a little. There is still big chances of help from the MJO and we have an ongoing and soon to come EAMT event but the lag from this was always after Christmas week. Steves 15/1 chance has come from an unexpected arctic high but these are the hardest things to forecast. Look at the two clusters posted above. One sees it join the scrussian high 34 members. The other sees it join the Greenland High (17 members) we need yo hope the 17 out of 51 have it right but its an arctic high!

Yes, and it was me who posted the said clusters.  But the 17/51 cluster does not equal the outcome for the UK that the ECM op shows, in the Christmas timescale.  It is a variety of outcomes that are long lived compared to the 34/51 cluster.  We may actually be saying the same thing, I realise!

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
Posted (edited)
12 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Calm down? In winter?  

Christmas week does look cold any which way, but that’s not to mean snow, which is what most want.  

Background signals, yes I understand this but there’s a lot of uncertainty along with that, as I’m sure you are aware.

Most on here would take @Steve Murr 15/1 shot on the ECM 12z evolution, and then lick their wounds when it didn’t happen. 

Pub run rolling...

DB704A6D-FE66-4E8D-831F-6537C56CBDB5.thumb.jpeg.00590ab6e18f03101be9503a3a68b337.jpegE4BA6D59-8560-4C6D-B64E-844BB6B25847.thumb.jpeg.c274c37f355e46e5be2276a0ccb3b4e6.jpeg

Enjoy  

Edited by Steve Murr
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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Forum

Calm down!

Christmas week cold if it happens is a bonus from our friend the Arctic High

Background signals peak 2 or 3 days prior to New Year!

Love it

this is me viewing the 12 gfs

WearyWeeGoral-max-1mb.gif.db27630f9f7e3128bbfb300eada9c3a7.gif

then this is me viewing the ECM

AssuredFoolishGoshawk-size_restricted.thumb.gif.d135369fd42239e21515b1fa41813511.gif

then this is me in reality...

20be3de3ec803c3d4b93f01c51845662.gif.253691da58a7fe8b33e5bd9ae3f3ee57.gif

...MET OFFICE

anyway,the 18z ICON is more amplified than the 12z  and a shallower low

18z at 120 v's 12z at 126.

iconnh-0-120.thumb.png.9ec1e526d5a6989a020c630efa6ebc5b.pngiconnh-0-126.thumb.png.2cf88f5ba2d549ffa4e678f233fbeda5.png

now the final run of the day...the 18z gfs...

giphy.thumb.gif.8bf4baacb8c790bb895f47d183c8e67b.gif

prams and dummies in tact

 

 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
3 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

BBC going with GFS over Xmas period with brief cold spell but then getting milder.

They will factor in GFS much more now MeteoGroup are doing it not the Met Office.  Usually an ECM/GFS blend to their graphics?  

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted

Nah I think the low is too north again, hopefully I'm wrong, expecting similar to the twelve z.

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

18Z looking pretty good to me at 96...

Jet digging further south should hopefully produce good results.

Hope thats not commentators curse !!

The 18z is a few 100 miles north better with the ridge.

though i think it will take until next WINTER to catch up with the ECM

Edited by Allseasons-si
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Scott Ingham Veteran

Scott Ingham

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
Posted
9 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, and it was me who posted the said clusters.  But the 17/51 cluster does not equal the outcome for the UK that the ECM op shows, in the Christmas timescale.  It is a variety of outcomes that are long lived compared to the 34/51 cluster.  We may actually be saying the same thing, I realise!

No it doesnt it a mean outcome but its saying 17 of them 51 favour that outcome to a degree. I personally couldnt tell you what Christmas week will be. When it comes to an arctic high and where it settles its far too hard! Remember me saying I thought some of the runs had the right idea but were responding too quickly to the tropical signals for Christmas week? 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Based on the 00z op runs judging by the charts shown 

Yes, they don't change until very late in the day.

8 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

They will factor in GFS much more now MeteoGroup are doing it not the Met Office.  Usually an ECM/GFS blend to their graphics?  

Usually ECM for anything after the hi res graphics from the short ranger, which is usually 36 hours.

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Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

ECM (12z) 168 vs GFS (18z) 162

image.thumb.png.a0df628682a6424d0e4de0e2249af1fd.pngimage.thumb.png.eaf903460b60bf598b91d754549f9e10.png    

Overall, it's pretty close at this stage

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Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)

Colder uppers are further south on 22/12 on latest 18z GFS compared to same time 12z GFS. A little more promising. 0c 850s line already down to the M4 rather than the Midlands on this run 

Edited by Kentspur
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

18z vs 12z

 

Big improvements.

1F29CFFD-7843-4A4B-A0B8-28D6AC1832F6.png

EFC563D0-A7AD-4AB1-B992-681AE98AB464.png

I struggle to see the difference, but you are both correct I think

 

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Colder uppers are further south on 22/12 on latest 18z GFS compared to same time 12z GFS. A little more promising. 0c 850s line already down to the M4 rather than the Midlands on this run 

 

gfsnh-1-180.png

gfsnh-1-186 (1).png

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