Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[LRD]

216 12z GFS:

Wet and cool, becoming quite cold in the north. Ridging in the Atlantic is still there but, maybe, not quite as convincing as on the 6z run. If the low clears there is cold air waiting to pounce but the Atlantic High could topple

[IDO]

4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Yes more of a slow burner but clearly an option  

Yes, already sharper ridges on this run for that three wave attack:

12z>  06z> 

[Griff]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Have I missed the recent runs showing something developing before this time frame?

Oh touché... For clarity it was looking flatter, to me but signal remains, all roads lead to Rome, cue discussions about adequate 850s . 

[frosty ground]

Just now, Griff said:

Oh touché... For clarity it was looking flatter, to me but signal remains, all roads lead to Rome, cue discussions about adequate 850s . 

Hmmm so you guessed wrong 

 

Much more useful Jet

[LRD]

A pretty cold Xmas Eve

What does that Atlantic High do next? It's like an EastEnders cliffhanger. Are Den and Angie still in it?

[Weathizard]

She’s a beaut, I think snow on Christmas Day is becoming a real possibility now, the sharp WAA in the Atlantic is much more vertical on the 12z than the 6z, probably only a brief cold snap but would be perfect timing if it comes off.

[TSNWK]

Be nice to get here on Christmas Eve.. if we do will it topple or not.. but at least I’m pondering that

 

[Allseasons-Si]

Looking good at day ten,maybe i was talking a load of cobbler's earlier

Edited December 14, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Griff]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Hmmm so you guessed wrong 

 

Much more useful Jet

Very glad to concede that!  

[Matt H]

Trend is still there for a Christmas cold snap on the GFS 12z.

[Man With Beard]

The mid Atlantic ridge scenario is one of the few where I trust the GFS as much as the ECM. Looks ok on the 12Z, snow showers to follow shortly after in northern and some western areas. 

[snowking]

3 minutes ago, LRD said:

A pretty cold Xmas Eve

What does that Atlantic High do next? It's like an EastEnders cliffhanger. Are Den and Angie still in it?

Unfortunately I suspect the positive tilt on the low coming out of Canada will mean this one is a toppler. But at the day 10 range it's all still up for grabs for now. And in the meantime it's still encouraging to see such multi-model support converging around the christmas period for a colder spell for all - those northerly airstreams can create all sorts of fun

Edited December 14, 2020 by snowking

[feb1991blizzard]

Here comes the slider!

96 redux chart coming up.

Edited December 14, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[Zak M]

And that's the 1983746574839248th time the GFS has shown a northerly for Christmas Day... not bad at all! 

   

[Tom Jarvis]

wedges make sledges!! 

[Tim Bland]

Where is that low to the north west heading ️

[Vikos]

Well, cold isn't the only thing...

 

 

For my place, we could have that Coca-Cola-Commercial XMAX-Eve Snow (maybe above 300m)

[frosty ground]

7 minutes ago, snowking said:

Unfortunately I suspect the positive tilt on the low coming out of Canada will mean this one is a toppler. But at the day 10 range it's all still up for grabs for now. And in the meantime it's still encouraging to see such multi-model support converging around the christmas period for a colder spell for all - those northerly airstreams can create all sorts of fun

It Disrupts in the end.

[Skullzrulerz]

I think short term to the 6z GFS run I think this run is a bit worse then the 6z but does hold long term potential

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Here comes the slider!

96 redux chart coming up.

That's what the EPS on the 27th was showing with another low dropping down from the N/NW

[Chesil View]

very very interesting at 228 trough disruption and sliders in the mix.

[Griff]

11 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Looking good at day ten,maybe i was talking a load of cobbler's earlier

I was with you, very interesting to learn how delays vs faster progression can make large differences... 

[TSNWK]

Felt that was another pleasing run .. cold theme for Christmas of which there are at least a couple is maintained.

post Christmas I felt the high out north west was starting to tobble, but then it stopped and pressure was raising again to our north when I stopped at 288. Which is plenty far enough out

nice run.

 

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

That's what the EPS on the 27th was showing with another low dropping down from the N/NW

Didn't quite make the 96 chart but could be an Easterly coming up though.

[kold weather]

Probably good odds for a white xmas in N.Scotland on this run, perhaps wintry stuff in places exposed to a NNW/N airflow.

Far from the worst xmas weather wise.

Ultimately probably going to see a HP set-up shop somewhere near the UK, its just whether or not its in a place that keeps any SW airflow riding over the top for now.