Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Jeremy Shockey]

ECM 12z @ 192

This has the potential to be a very good run. Hoping for some cold uppers over the UK for Christmas Day 

[Weathizard]

Better profile in the Atlantic vs the GFS 12z, it will probably still topple because the trigger we need is weaker than a ghosts fart

[Matt H]

ECM at t216 is infinitely better than the GFS!

Edited December 15, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Ali1977]

Pretty potent Northerly, Xmas Day will be cold for all on this run...

[Allseasons-Si]

A big like from moi...

ECM@216

[Daniel*]

ECM is undoubtedly better with ridge going more vertical. Less strength to TPV near Greenland also which may be important. 

[Ice Day]

Well the GFS 12z was pretty dreadful, in comparison to its earlier runs.  However, the ECM is far from dreadful at 216

Those uppers are cold enough, particularly further north

[Weathizard]

It’s pretty flimsy, cold enough though. Would be a nice seasonal Christmas Day.

Can’t see the ridge ending anywhere but over us though, there’s not enough low heights over Europe to stop it toppling

[IDO]

Yes, the handling of that low seems to lead to different routes and the ecm does follow the gfs 06z rather than the 12z by t192:

gfs>> ecm>>

Hopefully ecm is just not 6h behind the cycle and that this is the route? gefs trend more this way than the gfs 12z thankfully!

Edited December 15, 2020 by IDO

[Daniel*]

Well of course it would go do that

[Ice Day]

Crikey, not expecting that.  Lovely 240

[Ali1977]

WOW, where did that come from

Cold enough for snow showers anyway

Edited December 15, 2020 by Ali1977

[Matt H]

Day 10 is also great, just hope we aren’t chasing rainbows again.

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

It’s pretty flimsy, cold enough though. Would be a nice seasonal Christmas Day.

Can’t see the ridge ending anywhere but over us though, there’s not enough low heights over Europe to stop it toppling

That trough in the Atlantic is disrupting against the block at 216,and it should go under.

Edit: and it does...

BEAUTIFUL

Edited December 15, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240, was a surprise, this is fantastic!

 

[Weathizard]

Well... that shut me up Santa delivers the goods

[Ali1977]

Start with a slider, WAA reload then booooom from the NE If only it were that easy!! 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Make no doubt ECM will be a stormer....and on the money imo

 

BFTP

[Ice Day]

Uppers are nothing to be sniffed at, not deep cold but let's say 'seasonal'!

 

I will be very surprised if day 10 isn't a cold outlier..... please don't be a cold outlier 

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

WOW, where did that come from

I had a feeling it could become a cut off high what’s important that piece of vortex goes east not northeast it aids in squeeze of heights north.

[Matt H]

Gonna make the most of this ECM run until the pub run inevitably throws out some fierce south-westerlies later.

[Tim Bland]

Snow showers coming south xmas day!! 

[Spah1]

Ok Steve, the reverse psychology worked, well played sir. 
You can come back now. 
 

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

It’s out as posted above....ECM is a corker....I like UKMO too.  Going to get very interesting.....and cold

 

BFTP

[mother nature rocks]

Sweet Jesus that is simply amazing!! Please 2020 let’s finish the year slightly better than the rest of it ️️

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