Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[BlueHedgehog074]

The 12Z GEM is feeling a little more festive towards Christmas. 

 

Despite the narrower ridge in the Atlantic, looks more amplified than the GFS upstream. The GEM looks somewhat less in a hurry to topple the Atlantic ridge with better alignment to that Low in the Western Atlantic. Of which it is throwing some warmer air up towards Southern Greenland. A reasonable punch to the North-Westerly to Northerly flow over the UK, which could bring a mix of showers to places. Some of which could have a wintry flavour down to some reasonably low levels in heavier showers, particularly across Northern and Western areas. 

Pretty standard fair, but more appealing than the GFS

[Methuselah]

1 minute ago, SLEETY said:

Always best to wait for a cold spell to make it to 96 hours as has been mentioned before, or just expect it to fail otherwise, like the gfs is pointing out in the latest run today Cold runs in the latter stages of gfs ouput in particular may look exciting but they hardly ever verify. 

I hate northerly topplers because the jet rides over the top of the high and you can get Zonal weather for weeks, useless

I don't know about t+96, @SLEETY, but I never have much faith in wintry weather, until I can see snowflakes falling past my window!

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, IDO said:

The 12z def more like the 0z than the 6z:

12z>0z>

06z>

Yep I was trying to figure out the difference, and the USA low starts further north, so everything after is also further north, unfortunately the change is in a reliable time, around 48.

So I'm not sure it'll move back as south as it was., Guess we will find out.

[Dancerwithwings]

Still plenty to play for as even from early next week in looking at the 12z GFS members it shows confidence is still low leading towards Christmas Day but the main thing it shows temps looking seasonally festive

Edited December 15, 2020 by Dancerwithwings

[alexisj9]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Whilst there is this ridiculous difference between the GFS and UKMO at 144 I’m not buying anything to be honest, more runs needed - as ever  

Yes the UK met looks nice, fingers crossed.

[Anthony Burden]

gfs 12z has the high pressure collapsing quickly after Christmas.

Totaly different to met office update saying settled with frost and fog

likely into new year.Lots still to find out about at Christmas let alone after,

struggling with Synoptics for sure let’s see what ecm has on offer.

 

[Radiating Dendrite]

6 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

gfs 12z has the high pressure collapsing quickly after Christmas.

Totaly different to met office update saying settled with frost and fog

likely into new year.Lots still to find out about at Christmas let alone after,

struggling with Synoptics for sure let’s see what ecm has on offer.

 

If the high collapses over us, then that meto update will be on point. 

I expect a toppler, I don't think any model has been going all out with the blocking. The ECM usually over amplifies, so the fact this is showing not much more than a Mid Atlantic Ridge is telling. 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Radiating Dendrite

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just a question, but is anyone else having trouble loading Wetterzentrale?

[IDO]

Entropy still reigns after d8 so the 12z just another possibility, one of many. We should see some clusters forming soon but at d10 there is no obvious direction and here are d12 gefs to show the amplitude of variations:

We are still counting down viz the initial Atlantic heights, but I would say this looks more than likely, though still a couple of days needed for clarity on that, let alone post-ridge? A waiting game...

[Anthony Burden]

8 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

If the high collapses over us, then that meto update will be on point. 

I expect a toppler, I don't think any model has been going all out with the blocking. The ECM usually over amplifies, so the fact this is showing not much more than a Mid Atlantic Ridge is telling. 

I think you need to read met office 30 day forecast as I was mentioning their opinion on the settled

fog and frost over Christmas and into new year. Not something that I feel may or may not happen

just saying what the professionals are saying.

[Skullzrulerz]

10 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just a question, but is anyone else having trouble loading Wetterzentrale?

This link ?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/

Doesn't seem to load at all or is very slow 

[Matt H]

11 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just a question, but is anyone else having trouble loading Wetterzentrale?

Yes, I’m having issues as well!

[That ECM]

14 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just a question, but is anyone else having trouble loading Wetterzentrale?

T144 ecm. 

[IDO]

ecm 12z closer to gfs 06z than 12z so hopefully will divert away from the gfs 12z solution:

ecm 12z 144h> gfs>

gfs pushes the split low into the trough on the 12z but on the 06z the low was a runner riding the Russian high. See where ecm goes...

[BlueHedgehog074]

5 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

This link ?

https://www.wetterzentrale.de/

Doesn't seem to load at all or is very slow 

 

4 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Yes, I’m having issues as well!

Yep, that’s the one. Seem to get in eventually, but as you say takes a long time to load. Must be server issues or something, or possibly so many people using the site

[West is Best]

1 hour ago, Weathizard said:

Whilst there is this ridiculous difference between the GFS and UKMO at 144 I’m not buying anything to be honest, more runs needed - as ever  

They are almost identical 

GFS / UKMO / ECM  are all of one piece with a very vigorous Atlantic out to reliable timeframe of T144.

The Christmas Eve to Boxing Day period remains in unreliable timeframe. There is still evidence of considerable cyclogenesis off the eastern seaboard so until or unless a proper upstream block develops the best we can hope for are occasional north-westerly incursions. There may be one over Christmas itself but at the moment it looks like being short lived before the Atlantic reasserts its currently powerful presence.

Meanwhile, a case of battening down the hatches here tonight. It's going to blow a hoolie.

[Tim Bland]

Here is Meteociel link for anyone who needs it. Models can be changed on left 

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

---

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

Edited December 15, 2020 by Tim Bland

[pureasthedriven]

6 minutes ago, That ECM said:

T144 ecm. 

Promising chart, no? Lack of cyclogenisis off eastern seaboard, heights building behind Atlantic low, lack of TPV over Greenland, ‘curious’ low to our NE with a splash of PV embedded. No euro lows, but... Enough to retain my interest. 

[Allseasons-Si]

I like the ECM at 168 v's this morning with more amplification into the Atlantic.

obviously there is slight timings but you can't split 12 hrs on the ECM.

Edited December 15, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[mushymanrob]

25 minutes ago, DiagonalRedLine said:

Just a question, but is anyone else having trouble loading Wetterzentrale?

Yes... i cant get on

[BlueHedgehog074]

Just as well there’s always Meteociel and off course Netweather for chart viewing

[That ECM]

T192 gfs ecm not hard to see the difference. 

[Allseasons-Si]

WAA going up into W Greenland at 192...

BTW,did anyone see the control run...."BONKERS"

it does look like some of the EPS clusters with height's to the NW/NE with trough dropping down into Europe.

 

Edited December 15, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Ali1977]

Decent looking WAA at 192 on the ECM, typical just as the GFS backs off. Still, it looks like a decent cold snap for Xmas eve and Xmas day, not what many were hoping for but it’s better than 10c with wind and rain!! 

[Ali1977]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

T192 gfs ecm not hard to see the difference. 

Yep, big diff around Eastern Canada, with much sharper WAA for the ECM due to reduced pressure from any bowling lows heading our way!! Could be a decent day 10 here