Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted (edited)

GFS 12z so far looks less amplified in the Atlantic- is this to do with the more northerly track of the snowstorm in the US tomorrow Michael Ventrice just mentioned on twitter? 

gfs-0-156.png

Edited by Kentspur
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mushymanrob Maestro

mushymanrob

Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby
Posted
Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Absolute silence on the GFS that can only mean one thing it's been downgraded just as I expected

strange comment... its only out to t156, so not yet out to the cold spell which is still on track

 

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites
alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Absolute silence on the GFS that can only mean one thing it's been downgraded just as I expected

Hasn't got to the twenty fourth yet, for what it's worth, it keeps the low very shallow, unsure what it will do.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Why not look at it and give us an opinion on what the models show 

Compared to the GFS 6z the Atlantic has some less amplitude so could possibly bring consequences on a cold spell later on 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted (edited)

The jet a bit further north on this run so 24h delay for negative uppers to reach the south coast compared to the 06z:

12z>gfseu-1-168.thumb.png.b17c157157a2039ffae7a700cfad487d.png06z>gfseu-1-174.thumb.png.39452f6b7e4821da20dfaf4f82ba6227.png

Whether that is good or bad, who knows? The Pacific and Atlantic ridges slightly different but still there...

Edited by IDO
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted (edited)

UKMO at t+144 looks a lot better than the GFS at the same time frame with the ridge into Greenland. UKMO second

image.thumb.png.be0a41eafb4e4b83e78d1eb795f0f2ef.pngimage.thumb.png.05826dd6adf019ff11665fc5b4543dae.png

Edited by mountain shadow
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

T186 on the GFS 12z vs t192 on the 06z. Not a great deal of difference, if anything the northerly flow looks more direct on the 12z. Ridge looks slightly sharper on the 12z as well. 06z first.

B7226A83-9ABB-4A11-9213-8D4A911F3A0B.png

65B30538-4CA6-4B28-B803-9173D4EE188F.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Kentspur Accomplished

Kentspur

Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
Posted
1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

T186 on the GFS 12z vs t192 on the 06z. Not a great deal of difference, if anything the northerly flow looks more direct on the 12z. Ridge looks slightly sharper on the 12z as well. 06z first.

B7226A83-9ABB-4A11-9213-8D4A911F3A0B.png

65B30538-4CA6-4B28-B803-9173D4EE188F.png

Also less heights to the East of Iberia/ Morocco on latest 12z thats a positive too

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
syed2878 Rising Star

syed2878

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
Posted
2 hours ago, Rapodo said:

Gavsweathervids on YouTube are well worth a watch, he goes into alot of detail in his presentations. This one based on the EC 30 day extended forecast is really worth a watch especially towards the end for those who would like more explanation of what its showing and his take on it. Shows why many were excited by it for those learning.

 

 it s very interesting Worth watching those who are of a cold persuasion I really hope this does come off.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Matt H Accomplished

Matt H

Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Posted

Still looking like a brief cold snap before the ridge topples though unfortunately.

FC0BB008-3F87-40B8-8E81-426A7EF77D94.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
IDO Maestro

IDO

Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill
Posted

Yes, similar to the 0z where the tPV chunk to the NW clears any heights from Greenland, so faster and flatter than the 06z:

12z> gfseu-0-216.thumb.png.fa5623ddbd99d0b8f48191462f630ecb.png06z>1294438333_gfseu-0-222(1).thumb.png.83095064d6d8572d3c7daf403cfd1f40.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Skullzrulerz Maestro

Skullzrulerz

Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
Posted
Just now, Frosty Winter said:

Still looking like a brief cold snap before the ridge topples though unfortunately.

FC0BB008-3F87-40B8-8E81-426A7EF77D94.png

Is this because of the low being taking a northwards track?

This is what it is it's a cold snap and nothing more 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

Sorry team. My view is that the toppled high into Christmas Day situation had continued to gain momentum on this run..

losing those heights from the pole is the issue the Atlantic has nothing to grip onto when pressure is applied from the north west.image.thumb.png.e06efc5c97f46aca4eac212d2ad5f54f.png

 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
fromey Experienced

fromey

Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Is this because of the low being taking a northwards track?

This is what it is it's a cold snap and nothing more 

 

 

7 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Is this because of the low being taking a northwards track?

This is what it is it's a cold snap and nothing more 

 

Your asking a question but your sure of the outcome, that doesn’t make sense.

anyway there’s still a long way to go so a lot more chopping and changing yet to come, we are still talking 11days away.

Edited by fromey
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Vikos Seasoned

Vikos

Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
Posted (edited)

This second atlantic high, oh boy oh boy... even stronger than in 06z

spacer.pngspacer.pngspacer.png

This is it!

spacer.png

Edited by Vikos
Link to comment
Share on other sites
PolarWarsaw Seasoned

PolarWarsaw

Posted
  • Location: South Staffordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: South Staffordshire
Posted

Far too much energy coming from the Eastern Seaboard is consistently being modelled at the moment. Pretty sure Feb pointed it out last night, but transient wedges is the order of the day. We may see a couple of topplers in a short space of time, but anyone looking at anything even remotely other than a quick snap with a couple of frosts and some wintry showers over Scotland's mountains is really asking for a let down. 

Mild and wet this week, a touch cooler with perhaps some a couple of morning frosts over the festive period...then what into new year? 

A snowless December for all but 0.01% of the UK population is a short odds favourite at the weather bookies. 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted (edited)

The Northern Hemispheric view shows that the UKMO is much less progressive with the energy over the NE States, as we know the GFS is hideous at modelling that correctly. I would forecast that the UKMO would produce a better outcome than the GFS, nothing long lasting or deep cold, but we're back to looking for crumbs..

image.thumb.png.8b07735e9a9443fab2f0a5f29c62cc17.pngimage.thumb.png.37df780718faa7006f83f0deecba88a5.png

 

Edited by mountain shadow
Link to comment
Share on other sites
BarometerCat Aficionado

BarometerCat

Posted
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snow (Mostly)
  • Location: Hinckley, Leicestershire 123m ASL
Posted (edited)

It’s just one run thankfully and still some way out. How will that low evolve to the NE...image.thumb.png.63e8d3fcbeb66fef18788db207451f4f.png

Edited by B-C
Added missing chart
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Penicuikblizzard Experienced

Penicuikblizzard

Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
Posted
2 minutes ago, PolarWarsaw said:

Far too much energy coming from the Eastern Seaboard is consistently being modelled at the moment. Pretty sure Feb pointed it out last night, but transient wedges is the order of the day. We may see a couple of topplers in a short space of time, but anyone looking at anything even remotely other than a quick snap with a couple of frosts and some wintry showers over Scotland's mountains is really asking for a let down. 

Mild and wet this week, a touch cooler with perhaps some a couple of morning frosts over the festive period...then what into new year? 

A snowless December for all but 0.01% of the UK population is a short odds favourite at the weather bookies. 

A frosty Christmas sounds good to me better than raging SW winds

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...