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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas


Paul
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Posted
  • Location: Pershore
  • Location: Pershore

    Christmas is coming, we're two weeks into Winter already and in that short time we've had the first cold snap of the season, including a bit of snow, swiftly followed by the first mass toy throwing / winter's over period of the season too. What's to come next? Maybe a colder spell as we head into the Xmas period?

    As always, please keep it to the models and keep it friendly in this thread. If you spot any issues, please report the post rather than responding to it. If you're wanting to chat more generally about this winter, or maybe have a ramp, please head off to the winter chat thread:

    If you're wanting to learn more about meteorology, please take a look at the Learning and Research area.

    Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
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    ECMWF EPS
    NetWx-SR (3km)
    NetWx-MR (9km)
    Met Office (UKMO)
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    Model Comparison
    Golbal Jetstream
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    Posted
  • Location: Swale
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Swale

    As a complete newbie to reading the charts, and after the last cold spell which didnt seem to proceed as expected?

    What are the pitfalls we are looking for this time, trends beginning to appear in posters comments and i presume its getting all the synoptics inside 144hrs or less ?

    Thanks

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    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    spacer.png

     

    Will it split?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, freezes, bitterly cold and icy. Thunderstorms and heatwaves!
  • Location: Lincolnshire

    Ao majorly negative! Good signs going forwards towards Christmas and new year.

    ao.sprd2.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
    6 minutes ago, Vikos said:

    spacer.png

     

    Will it split?!

    To the more knowledgeable, is this a 3 wave pattern? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Birmingham (Solihull), West Midlands
    13 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

    To the more knowledgeable, is this a 3 wave pattern? 

    Admittedly not the most knowledgeable of people, but looks like the start of a 3 wave pattern with the Pacific, Western UK and Eastern Russian ridges attempting to pinch the Vortex from the 3 sides.

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    Posted this in the previous thread but it still stands. Coldies and snowies its is your duty  and your god given right to check out the 00zgfs extended control run 384-840.   it is uttely outrageous and a thing of beauty for which the term Cobra run is insufficient.

    just a taster below 

    GFSC00EU99_756_2.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Last night when I said the latest GFS was looking more amplified it went off the rails, therefore 🤬. No comment on the 12z as it will go pear shape again. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
    59 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Posted this in the previous thread but it still stands. Coldies and snowies its is your duty  and your god given right to check out the 00zgfs extended control run 384-840.   it is uttely outrageous and a thing of beauty for which the term Cobra run is insufficient.

    just a taster below 

    GFSC00EU99_756_2.png

    Filth!  Lets hope the 12z runs keep our seasonal Christmas hopes alive!  🤞

    tMR8KKUH.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    2 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Last night when I said the latest GFS was looking more amplified it went off the rails, therefore 🤬. No comment on the 12z as it will go pear shape again. 

    Agreed and thank you 🙂

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    5 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Last night when I said the latest GFS was looking more amplified it went off the rails, therefore 🤬. No comment on the 12z as it will go pear shape again. 

    Because it hasn't gone out that far yet to get excited about😏

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    Posted
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast
  • Location: Ireland - East Coast

    The midnight ECM is certainly interesting with -4 to -8 850's drawing down on December 24th, in from the North West. This is 10 days out, but better it showing than not showing. 

    image.thumb.png.55a64e534758f00f5233bb45962e2efb.png

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    Latest 144 gfs vs the rest at the same time frame on their most recent runs.. 

    gfsnh-0-144 (15).png

    ECH1-144 (5).gif

    UN144-21 (9).gif

    gemnh-0-144 (8).png

    iconnh-0-144 (8).png

    Possibly copying the ukmo's homework?

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    The 12z GFS op back to the 0z outcome with the low on the jet at d7:

    12z> gfseu-0-186.thumb.png.a3e1ad862ffc41a94bc646980e6066c6.png 06z> gfseu-0-192.thumb.png.9363811154642fcabe39d1e69c0e6fb1.png

    It merges with the trough and no Azores cut-off low on this run; so will be different again! We will get a warm sector delaying the cold on this run.

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

    Out to t198 the GFS appears to have the consistency of a baby’s nappy. 

    It could still turn out ok - high pressure appears to be more prevalent to the north east on the 12z. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

    Initially I felt it was flatter but from around 168 I’m seeing much better heights to our north and artic high applying a little pressure.

    is that little low just over Ireland gonna be our trigger 🙂 ?
    image.thumb.png.de21ddd834b559bcc1c91d58e6954d78.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    3 minutes ago, IDO said:

    The 12z GFS op back to the 0z outcome with the low on the jet at d7:

    12z> gfseu-0-186.thumb.png.a3e1ad862ffc41a94bc646980e6066c6.png 06z> gfseu-0-192.thumb.png.9363811154642fcabe39d1e69c0e6fb1.png

    It merges with the trough and no Azores cut-off low on this run; so will be different again! We will get a warm sector delaying the cold on this run.

    Yes more of a slow burner but clearly an option 👀 

    Amplification towards Greenland around 216 might still kick things off...

    Edited by Griff
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    Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

    The GFS is still looking good for a festive Northerly 👍 

    DE908881-021C-4AC6-81C6-F626259AF04A.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    The models are struggling with the ESB low with regards to phasing with the upper/parent low at 144 and until this is sorted out,then anything past this point fruitless,if this low doesn't phase with the parent low then better heights in the Atlantic would build 

    the Icon doesn't phase this low whereas the UKMO and gfs does hence a flatter pattern,UKMO the middle ground here.

    icon-0-144.thumb.png.e660b3390232710a2b03fd8343a4d7c4.pngUW144-21.thumb.gif.e6ea90b89c30babde9fd9f614aa37945.gifgfs-0-144.thumb.png.5d3e11eb32136d86c8da2a0232059eb0.png

    or am i talking a load of cobswollacks ,maybe we want it to phase😜

    Edited by Allseasons-si
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    3 minutes ago, Drifter said:

    Out to t198 the GFS appears to have the consistency of a baby’s nappy. 

    It could still turn out ok - high pressure appears to be more prevalent to the north east on the 12z. 

    That low won't be decided on, till around three day's out or may be, even less time. Little micro changes, make big changes to how the pattern will look. Get ready for Shannon to reappear.

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