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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

UKMOOOOOOOOOOO!!!

@144.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.24a4e421a485de5d5a8974d700cec960.gif

 

 

UKMOOOOOOOOOO you say?

Holy Cow!!!!! 

Joking aside it is definitely more amplified than this morning's run and is more GFSish to my eyes?

Edited by Kentish Snowman
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Posted
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl
  • Location: West leeds, 115m asl

GFS showing better amplification and 850s a degree or 2 cooler on Xmas eve. Could see some nice flurries on Xmas eve then a lovely cold crisp Xmas day. Then the main course to come! Perfect!!

Edited by SnOwFeSt
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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Gfs more amplified than the 06z W.T.F.

12z 126 v's 06z 132.

gfsnh-0-126.thumb.png.024ce8e4f862e9a1d1c4c6b75ec1dec6.pnggfsnh-0-132.thumb.png.69dfdba244bcc8c33719b663ce7854c8.png

Yep another GFS classic is currently unfolding. Beautiful Sunday afternoon entertainment.

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Posted
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme weather - any kind!
  • Location: Malton, North Yorkshire
2 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

spacer.pngGFS 12 z precipitation Christmas Eve

spacer.pngGFS 12 z 850 s Christmas Eve

Snow showers down East coasts and for others if precipitation makes it inland ( with the -8 isotherm in place for 24th Dec)

 

I’ll happily take this for Christmas Eve!!

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Looks like colder T850s to me::santa-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

And (as an aside) although the word 'zonality' doesn't appear in the Oxford Dictionary, we do all know precisely what it means... just like we all know what 'seasonality' and 'marginality' mean...? Perhaps the linguistic pedants would prefer 'winds from a predominantly westerly direction'? Or some other such twister-of-tongues?

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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

Good grief. Been away for a day. Imagine if someone had offered you this as a GFS and UKMO +144 just a week ago. 

image.thumb.png.b2ef7a8c4026b4a1e65ec047b3e0caeb.png

image.thumb.png.ab70a72c9ecf564a4db89c27bb7dcea8.png

Uppers bla bla but we need to get the dynamic in place first - and this is a stonking setup by most standards! Get the cold in first,  as they say...

Edited by ITSY
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

UKMO and gfs @144.

UN144-21.thumb.gif.0d2960742bd28c8d9c4af959da1e298e.gifgfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.d70c13fdf1046abf382a1ff6e2c5d348.png

UKMO jumping on the same train which is good to see.

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3 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

spacer.pngGFS 12 z precipitation Christmas Eve

spacer.pngGFS 12 z 850 s Christmas Eve

Snow showers down East coasts and for others if precipitation makes it inland ( with the -8 isotherm in place for 24th Dec)

 

Freezing level of 100-200 meters inland on that... given nocturnal cooling that's snow all the way. Then factor in potential 850 upgrades. North York Moors hits the jackpot.

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

GFS 12z more amplified than the 06z, can’t believe it. Have to say the GFS consistency has been impressive recently!:santa-emoji:

1AE92DDA-EDDC-4E71-8C15-B4B8970C73C0.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Can't post charts on crappy phone but GFS looks bloody ace! Getting better with each run! 

Edited by Day 10
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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.

Very interesting gfs northern hemisphere view at 150hrs. 

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Can we now safely say all models have come towarde the GFS

Im starting to get really interested now.

Forget the 850s until nearer time. If we nail this paytern someone will get snow in the next two weeks

Yes, I think so.  I find it unusual for me to have been calling for the GFS to be right and the others to be wrong, but it is the whole amplification out of the USA thing and Greenland ridge.  We’ve not really seen anything like this for 10 years, and I wasn’t commenting on the models back then!

So, assuming ECM doesn’t bowl a googly, we can bank the broad evolution and move on to phase 2 which is how cold?  

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Just now, Frosty Winter said:

GFS 12z more amplified than the 06z, can’t believe it. Have to say the GFS consistency has been impressive recently!:santa-emoji:

1AE92DDA-EDDC-4E71-8C15-B4B8970C73C0.png

 

It really has and it has led the way on this.

That is an absolute beaut of a Winter synoptic even if the 850's aren't ideal

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Gfs.. is a                         These blocking formats are as good as burnt on.. via suites now.... mobile weather wtf is that ??!!

4CDE9B78-2C95-445E-B373-CBA912660006.png

26A96088-8942-4F67-8AE9-8322B27BDFE5.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Hemingfield, South Yorkshire (49m / 160ft ASL)
3 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

GFS 12z more amplified than the 06z, can’t believe it. Have to say the GFS consistency has been impressive recently!:santa-emoji:

1AE92DDA-EDDC-4E71-8C15-B4B8970C73C0.png

Look at that High opening up over Greenland as well

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Posted
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Cold & Snowy
  • Location: Kings Norton, West Midlands

Is the GFS the best model now? I remember a few weeks ago it was terrible and not worth viewing. I can't keep up. 

Everything a bit further west which is good to see!

image.thumb.png.04097e70e932b8f59abdebe2f21b665a.png

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent

I'm still not overly optimistic despite the output. Where is the forcing for a sustained Greenland block? The MJO is currently in the COD & forecasting what that's going to do continues to be incredibly difficult. The CFS does tank the AAM which might give some support for a decent block, however given the lag on that the GFS block would be too fast. 

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

A proper GH looks more likely this run due to the increased amplification and this area I’ve circled, our ridge is battering the vortex into shreds (6z & 12z comparison)

4957C713-BA46-46E3-BBBC-E85179F30139.jpeg

0E27E96C-8A1C-422C-9A1F-8E3BEA803C29.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

That’s strong wind. That could be news worthy, especially if it snowing at the same time.

99360DA1-E847-4E1D-BE3A-47923267891A.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes, I think so.  I find it unusual for me to have been calling for the GFS to be right and the others to be wrong, but it is the whole amplification out of the USA thing and Greenland ridge.  We’ve not really seen anything like this for 10 years, and I wasn’t commenting on the models back then!

So, assuming ECM doesn’t bowl a googly, we can bank the broad evolution and move on to phase 2 which is how cold?  

You would 99/100 times back the ecm over gfs but from experience its this part of the world that the GFS excels in. I expect the pattern to edge a little east closer to time so i think the polar low/trough to be nearer the east coast which should help the 850s. If we can get this to sink further south i think the next destination is Iceland, winds off the continent and weather sysytems from the seaboard bumping into cold air..... snow!

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Look at that High opening up over Greenland as well

At 174,it is impressive now,almost 2010-esk!!!

gfsnh-0-174.thumb.png.eb379d40e3d7571b05c575fb0b3b2e1d.pngarchivesnh-2010-11-24-12-0.thumb.png.d4adc666577d17d62df96179a32be46a.png

 

Edited by Allseasons-si
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