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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
16 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

........Or enhancing things

Absolutely if cold rain is your thing . In fairness, though snow can’t be ruled out. It’s another very marginal situation. High ground in the north clearly favored. In SE England where millions are under house arrest I predict nothing but a harsh rain.
 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

Interesting "battle" between GFS and ECM for 27-29th coming up. ECM ensembles mostly split between a trough much further east or another trough incoming from the Atlantic. GFS op keeps pulling the trough over the UK. Which is right? I'm going to guess the GFS is probably too far south with the low by T192 but who knows yet?

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

ECM 0z clusters, T192-T240, and T264-T360:

5BD65987-3A94-425B-ABBE-8B9058ECE8F2.thumb.png.246a3ff68cdcb14cb7565a2c0019d1ea.pngDBAB6A53-1D3B-410D-84F0-9F22FA6627DB.thumb.png.a30720161daa0cb600e896642531cde7.png

While the majority cluster 1 is most favourable, all of them bar cluster 4 maintain high latitude blocking of some sort.  Good output again this morning, let’s get the amplified pattern into the reliable and then start looking at temperatures...

Edited by Mike Poole
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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
1 hour ago, mulzy said:

Looks like the more amplified solutions from days 8-10 dominate the EPS.  Much better mean than last night.

Yes I noticed that Mulzy..

Need to see as much energy as possible dropping into Euro land.

Dont want to see the Azores high ridging into Europe !

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

Been Keeping an eye on Wednesdays low for potential back edge snow as it pulls away. 
 

Track/positioning/intensity still unsure but GFS showing it’s possible.

Into Xmas eve morning could be a dusting in central England/Wales also snow showers into Scotland.  Then with the cold air following behind into Xmas day could well be a very festive feel to the weather. 

51C7575A-065F-409B-B0C6-8EF1FAF81185.thumb.png.2d14e8bef59ff2dee8a2a640e326ab6c.png

BBAD3229-F6B3-43B2-9D75-0257761F2980.thumb.gif.7288caeaece28840fc631f5758ab465f.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
21 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Absolutely if cold rain is your thing . In fairness, though snow can’t be ruled out. It’s another very marginal situation. High ground in the north clearly favored. In SE England where millions are under house arrest I predict nothing but a harsh rain.
 

 

Well it depends which way you look at it Jason. The only genuine white Christmas. ( Falling and Settling snow Xmas day morning) in my 60 years on this planet came from a little shortwave drama in chilly trough of low pressure like the one being modelled. All at 32 meters above sea level on the south coast. Oh yes and uppers above minus 5!

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
1 hour ago, NewEra21 said:

Still not impressed with the lack of cold, looks like a lot of cold rain to me. Of course some places will get lucky, but there will be a huge slice of marginality. 

Nowadays anything from the north just doesn't seem to cut it, we always need a much more easterly component to bring the true cold in.

The charts look great on face value, they scream cold. And then you look at them and the cold just isn't there. It's pretty disheartening to finally see these great looking charts, but then without the cold you'd associate with them.

A sign of things to come unfortunately with our warming climate

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL

Personally I think the 00z runs ,in particular EC and its mean are a step in the right direction.

More upgrades needed though if we are to see a genuine cold spell from this..

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

well it snowed here last january or was it the year before,MEMORY in the evening and we got about 2 inches here ,half a mile from coast,when we had that slider low,remember and further to the South west got a fair bit more more and the upper air temps were about  minus 3,so the uppers arent everything

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
26 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Well it depends which way you look at it Jason. The only genuine white Christmas. ( Falling and Settling snow Xmas day morning) in my 60 years on this planet came from a little shortwave drama in chilly trough of low pressure like the one being modelled. All at 32 meters above sea level on the south coast. Oh yes and uppers above minus 5!

Was that 1968 perchance? If so, I remember it well: heavy rain starting at 40F and gradually turning to snow, over a period of several hours... It was what I meant by my half-joking references to a Xmas 1968 redux!:santa-emoji:

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49 minutes ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

A sign of things to come unfortunately with our warming climate

Not in the near future! The northern hemisphere has the cold, its just over the opposite side. The recent synoptic setup has meant the cold has been pushed away from the pole and into eastern Siberia and Asia along with Alaska. Its not that the cold isn't there, its just in the wrong place.

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Posted
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl
  • Location: North Newbald , 139 feet asl

spacer.pngGFS 06 z precipitation 24th Dec

spacer.pngGFS 06 z 850 s 24th Dec

The GFS 06 z still provides the possibility of a Wintry Christmas Eve for some ! ( one to watch over the coming days )

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Posted
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
  • Location: Örebro, Sweden
11 minutes ago, Island Visions said:

Not in the near future! The northern hemisphere has the cold, its just over the opposite side. The recent synoptic setup has meant the cold has been pushed away from the pole and into eastern Siberia and Asia along with Alaska. Its not that the cold isn't there, its just in the wrong place.

Not only that but artic area is currently below average and has continued to get colder last weeks

Arktis.png

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Maybe only brief, and mainly confined to Northern and Eastern coastal regions, but a window of opportunity (24th) is now looking odds on, IMO...?:santa-emoji:

h500slp.png    h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

Had a close look at the ECM and the 850s aren't that bad with the -5c line south of the UK ny the 28th with the -10c line not from from Northern Scotland, most places with modest elevation and inland should see snow.

Could be worse.

Andy

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Posted
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
  • Location: Straiton 145m asl
20 minutes ago, Island Visions said:

Not in the near future! The northern hemisphere has the cold, its just over the opposite side. The recent synoptic setup has meant the cold has been pushed away from the pole and into eastern Siberia and Asia along with Alaska. Its not that the cold isn't there, its just in the wrong place.

I thought it was better having the cold strengthening in Siberia for a bitter NE wind to be unleashed in weeks to come ❄️

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Posted
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl
  • Location: Neath Valleys, South Wales 109m asl

GFS more amplified at 150, better heights into Greenland

And low pressure dropping further east. 

gfsnh-0-150.thumb.png.829d35441a77436ceb51017deffce6ab.png

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