Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[nick sussex]

The ECM  is very good at the end but a little frustrating earlier on.

The ECM develops a good cold pool over mainland Europe and with a shallower feature dropping s/se that could have pulled that into the UK to meet the frontal band .

That apart its day ten chart is far better than this mornings run with low pressure set up in a way to the south to eventually feed some of that deeper cold westwards .

If offered I would grab the day ten chart and pass out with excitement ! 

Edited December 18, 2020 by nick sussex

[radiohead]

On the ECM significant snow in parts of Ireland as early as Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. By day 10 there's up to 40cm in the north of England.

[TSNWK]

16 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well you would back the Ecm at t144 over the gfs & ukmo. So it seems like a few who have been banging the drum to remain grounded over this cold snap could well be correct. But Xmas if the Ecm is correct this evening isn’t looking overly cold. 

Jeeze.. over the years I have pondered if you’re simply a glass half full chap or a troll. What we are seeing modelled at present and within the mid term are once in a decade Synoptics and the most hearting thing was that gfs and ecm were aligned at 192.  we Might be taking different routes but the outcome is positive for coldies so with all that being said you’re not going to clutter and litter my enjoyment and knowledge gaining anymore. You’re number 5 to the block list...goodbye. 

[Duane S.]

Apples for apples part #2...

Upgrade city.

Not that it will actually come off exactly like the ECM of course but I think a bit of cold rain on D9 (heavy snow in favoured areas though) would be acceptable for what was to follow as a Continental feed was introduced and it started turning to snow in most places. We can but dream

 

All roads still leading to cold...

Edited December 18, 2020 by s4lancia

[Man With Beard]

Chances of a white Christmas due to frost continue to firm up

If anything falls out of the sky, it'll be white for most - unlikely given the pressure profile, but not unknown.

Still time for further corrections for Christmas Day - to be honest, corrections are likely to push the pattern even further east (and less cold for Christmas Day), but if that happens then the chance of a big northerly two days later increases.

 

 

 

[Zak M]

12z ECM @240...

   

It's happening lads... I've even changed my profile picture

[iowpompeylee]

7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's always a good sign when all routes appear to be leading to cold.

Spot on! You know there’s a great chance when all roads point to Rome! As they say! Great model watching 

[Frosty.]

Slow down guys, I can’t keep up, I’ve only been here for the last 15 years..go figure!..anyway, that’s quite a stunning day 10 ECM 12z op chart isn’t it?..and crimbo day looks cold to!...have a great evening!..oops I’ve made a mess of my post haven’t I..naughty naughty!..anyway, Mr Spock thinks it’s logical day 10..

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[PolarWarsaw]

2 minutes ago, iowpompeylee said:

Spot on! You know there’s a great chance when all roads point to Rome! As they say! Great model watching 

Oh yes, this little chesnut. I assume we are all convert Italians at this point then? Probably the 100th time this has been posted since the end of last month. 99.9% of the population have had ZERO falling (let alone accumulating snow) with the odd frost, in between a lot of mild and wet  this month. All roads point to Rome, if we get there. Practically guaranteed that all of our roads will suddenly find themselves closed if even one minor issue appears, but let's hope not.

A rightly grounded atmosphere in here this evening, for whatever reason we just CANNOT get charts into even a semi reliable timeframe. It feels like we have been watching exciting things happen at Day 9/10 for about 6 weeks now. It's almost like we get the carrot at Day 10, then a new signal is picked up and filtered down by Day 8. 

With that being said, I'd have increased confidence in some sort of Cold spell over the Christmas period rather than we the previous month we just had to endure. Starting to look a little bit toasty in the Strat and it appears we will probably get a couple of chances of topplers - at least. Just remember though, we need 1000 things to go perfectly without issue in our favour, even 1 out of that number goes against us and it's game.

Let's be realistic though, we all talk about the Strat/trop disconnect and it affecting us. The only disconnect I've seen so far this season, is all of these background drivers, the models and the dross we have endured at the surface. 

Something more exciting is potentially on the horizon. 

 

 

[Uncertainty]

8 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Just a quick one from me now that ive had time to adjust my boxer shorts.... 

GFS has ALWAYS been better than ECM with modelling Greenland heights. In fact its the only thing its better than ECM at.

Either way all paths lead to gold.....

You did say that might be the next stop for the UK high Scott, do you think the big EA mountain torque event is driving this allied with the vortex trending weaker?

Looking at the output it seems like the Arctic high has a role too, it seems to ensure the low to the NW has to go South / SE

The lack of a strong PV over Greenland then allows heights to fill the gap to the North leading to a cold lock in for NW Europe.

It actually makes sense with the background signals! 
It’s actually been signposted by medium/long range modelling for weeks!

Now all we need is for it to actually happen!

[Decemberof2010]

Just had a quick glance at some day 10 GEFS. 
p20 says order your shovels. I think the uk is under there anyway

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Decemberof2010

[Devonshire]

10 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

You’re number 5 to the block list...goodbye. 

You are a tolerant sort - I am on page 25 of blocked 'members' ...

speaking of which, can anyone (ideally Mr M himself) confirm if the following shows a couple of Christmas chipolatas whose link might unravel to form a 'Murr Sausage'? (I like to think I have learnt something over the years, but sometimes doubt it...)

[TSNWK]

Question on uppers? Do we think that because  what is currently modelled is originally from a colder and drier source why up north instead of our more traditional north westerly blasts that we might have more room to play with on the uppers.. bit like when we get a south easterly draw and uppers of -2 roughly gave the south east a decent snow event January 2013

 

 

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

You are a tolerant sort - I am on page 25 of blocked 'members' ...

speaking of which, can anyone (ideally Mr M himself) confirm if the following shows a couple of Christmas chipolatas whose link might unravel to form a 'Murr Sausage'? (I like to think I have learnt something over the years, but sometimes doubt it...)

Probably a mini sausage !

Looking at the evolution between day 9 and 10 . There’s a pivot motion to the troughing , so day 11 should see the eastern portion pivot nw and high pressure build ne towards Scandinavia . This should funnel a strong ene flow westwards into the UK.

 

[Dancerwithwings]

15 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM @240...

   

It's happening lads... I've even changed my profile picture

I’m with ya Zak, net weather member lampposts at the ready guys

 

[Scott Ingham]

10 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

You did say that might be the next stop for the UK high Scott, do you think the big EA mountain torque event is driving this allied with the vortex trending weaker?

Looking at the output it seems like the Arctic high has a role too, it seems to ensure the low to the NW has to go South / SE

The lack of a strong PV over Greenland then allows heights to fill the gap to the North leading to a cold lock in for NW Europe.

It actually makes sense with the background signals! 
It’s actually been signposted by medium/long range modelling for weeks!

Now all we need is for it to actually happen!

To sum things up very simply.

The atmosphere has been primed since the beginning of december. We have a total disconnect of the strat. The TPV wave 1 and Wave 2 split was always going to send the vortex over to Scandinavia and the void left in the Greenland locale was always waiting for amplification from the MJO wave, EAMT events to drive AAM or or else fails they fail and the fall out is a SSW from the failed attempts. Whats happened is yet again AAM has been under modelled. The first bite (Christmas week) wasnt enough and we always had this weeks ongoing mountain torque and one to follow on Christmas week to finish the job. Hence the NEW Year week forecast. 

Thinking logically.

There was going to be amplification on the back of moderate mid december amplification. It couldnt be Scandinavia YET as the vortex will be pushed in this locale so Greenland/Iceland had to be. I think an Icelandic high is the next destination

Edited December 18, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Probably a mini sausage !

Looking at the evolution between day 9 and 10 . There’s a pivot motion to the troughing , so day 11 should see the eastern portion pivot nw and high pressure build ne towards Scandinavia . This should funnel a strong ene flow westwards into the UK.

 

Naughty! stop it nick  now I’m thinking streamers...... as my name Thames Streamer North West Kent last spotted March 2018...

[sundog]

27 minutes ago, Zak M said:

12z ECM @240...

   

It's happening lads... I've even changed my profile picture

Reminds me  a bit of this chart from late dec 78

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Naughty! stop it nick  now I’m thinking streamers...... as my name Thames Streamer North West Kent last spotted March 2018...

The cold pool over Scandinavia is what we really need to get west . So that needs a high pressure to the north ne to help drive that .

Look out for the De Bilt ensembles to see whether they’re interested in that as that would be a step on the way towards the UK .

[Skullzrulerz]

This evening's models per ECM and GFS

The GFS is actually quite great and especially for getting that cold pool into Europe and throw the polar vortex because why not

ECM however seems a bit more "back to earth" though by no means it could be wrong and further side with the GFS though it does get colder in about 10 days time 

Before even processing to go into the longer term regarding the potential that hangs in the distance we have to get the short term sorted first as GFS and UKMO Vs ECM seems likely on the cards 

 

I know where my bets are at...

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Skullzrulerz

[Beanz]

I was excited by the GFS earlier, the ECM even more so, in that aligns...but I’m a bit nervous we seem to be pushing out into FI each day, the tantalisingly close but not close enough doesn’t seem to end...  

 

 

[Anthony Burden]

ECM looking. To the east at day 10 such a lot going on in the stratosphere/ troposphere

perhaps encouraging the beast from the east.All looking good for very seasonal weather.

[Methuselah]

10 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Probably a mini sausage !

Looking at the evolution between day 9 and 10 . There’s a pivot motion to the troughing , so day 11 should see the eastern portion pivot nw and high pressure build ne towards Scandinavia . This should funnel a strong ene flow westwards into the UK.

 

A chipolata? A pig in an electric blanket? Note to self: Don't be tempted by the hyperbolic steroids!

Are we on the cusp of something special?

[snowice]

Members have been awakened by this evenings charts.Set Alarm clocks  ban short waves.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

My Blast/Beast from the East still there during Christmas week .   It’s a beautiful chart with very derp cold moving SW towards us.  Indeed we will have been under cold air for 4 + days by then so it will be very cold.

 

This set up on 23rd doesn’t lead to my Christmas Day anticipation but the attack from the NW and plunging N/S LP comes in shortly after bringing my beast.

I like the ECM more than GFS as it looks cleaner.  Incidentally I believe this 12z develops what RJS posted earlier today....worth having a read of it

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited December 18, 2020 by BLAST FROM THE PAST