Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Weathizard]

240 will be a snorter

[stratty]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Looking good...here comes the PV chunk...

Look at the HPs lining up ready to join! ! ! WOWEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

ERM!!!,...look at those height's opening up over the top

216.

 

[Kentspur]

5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

You're missing the point. The ECM 12Z was due to fail the northerly from 144h 

Low is too big, longer atlantic sea run, uppers get moderated.

 

Heard the expression short term pain for long term gain?

Edited December 18, 2020 by Kentspur

[Captain Shortwave]

Good trends for week 2 with a more significant area of low pressure pushing into NW Europe. That could unleash a pretty potent northerly if things go right.

In an ironic way, the ECM produces a slither of higher heights to the north east that the incoming low disrupts against and it the low ends up sinking through the U.K. Probably not the final direction but a good chance of an easterly developing at day 10 as all those heights to our west/north and north east link up.

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[radiohead]

Uppers not very impressive on the ECM at T216. Ranging from around -2 to -4. But T216 is a long way off...

 

[carinthian]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

We need more se movement not southerly from the low over Greenland .

Any low needs to get se of the UK . 

Totally agree. Just seen BBC world weather, talk about a short lived cold spell over Christmas. Ominous , but not sure of their source. However, UKMO holding its consistent out puts and thats heading towards cold.

C

[Howie]

1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

240 will be a snorter

The high over Svalbard

[Weather-history]

Early Feb 1968, that gave a big dump of snow for some parts

 

 

[Ali1977]

We could be tapping I to a long drawn Easterly if all those heights accross the north of Russia join up with the WAA through Greenland - with a nice Junk of vortex and very cold uppers ready to retrogress our way 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Ali1977

[Duane S.]

Ha ha, there she blows

[Tim Bland]

Wow  

Edited December 18, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Day 10]

Day 10

[Allseasons-Si]

ABSOLUTELY GORGEOUS

ECM 240.

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Ali1977]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Wow  

And look at that air temp to our East, heading our way 

[mountain shadow]

It's always a good sign when all routes appear to be leading to cold.

[Daniel*]

What a brilliant day the best of the winter! And no it’s not just day 10 the ball is rolling few days before that...

[Snowman.]

ECM D10 is the best chart we've had from an OP this year.

[Decemberof2010]

[Mike Poole]

ECM T240:

Narnia territory on T264 frame!

Edited December 18, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Uncertainty]

The big wins tonight are:

- The Xmas day Northerly has been sharpened up and will bring 60million people in this country not to mention NW Europe some frosty and *possibly* snowy cheer on a year in which they’ve been battered to oblivion 

- The  major models have not gone flat with the post Boxing Day Atlantic amplification, they have all gone for variations on the today’s broad GFS theme, the details of which are unknowable yet.

On the negative side

- They have still not decided upon the fate of Wednesdays low (or not to low). Fair play @nick sussexyou said it wasn’t relevant to the overall pattern and you’re right but it’s still Important in forecasting terms for the sodden south west.

However should that Wednesday low come to pass, some back edge snow for Northern England looks possible:

I reckon the ECM would show something similar, hopefully someone can rustle up the  charts!

Oh... I just saw the ECM day 10

WAT

GIVE IT TO ME.

I don’t care that it’s an outlier (it will be).

I just want it to happen

 

[Kasim Awan]

13 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Heard the expression short term pain for long term gain?

I'm not doubting that the outlook is interesting & potentially cold.

I'm just illustrating the potential evolution options around the D6-8 range, for which the ECM progression seems a strong candidate. The expansion of the low is currently a more *favoured* outcome at this range, i.e. a wintry vs brutal northerly at D8-9.

Beyond this, one would only speculate what could happen given the likely initial, extremely amplified pattern... ❄

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Ice Day]

Look at those 850's coming our way from out east!

More reasons for optimism and this won't be the finished article.  However, what @nick sussex stated earlier is correct, it would be ideal if the chunk of PV dropped in more of a south east direction, rather than dropping north to south.  Other than that, all is very very rosy in the coldies garden at the moment.  

We're in that rare place where all routes do seem to point cold...... just how cold and for how long?  One thing is for sure, this is the best model viewing since March 2018.

[Rocheydub]

That is beautiful. I guess we'll know about the separation in 24/36 hours... Until then, DO NOT TELL ANYONE! Don't be the jinx! 

[Scott Ingham]

Just a quick one from me now that ive had time to adjust my boxer shorts.... 

GFS has ALWAYS been better than ECM with modelling Greenland heights. In fact its the only thing its better than ECM at.

Either way all paths lead to gold.....