Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[bluearmy]

early evening observations

a week is a long time in this place - go back to last Friday evening in here if you don't believe me!

ICON is sometimes right when it is persistent against the other models - its the only model not positively tilted around greeny day 6.  but at day 7.5 it looks like it would still go down the route of nw/se jet and diving trough

finally, we seem to be honing onto the nw/se axis with the amplifying atlantic ridge responsible for dropping the trough close to or over us ..... what if upstream isn't modelled correctly and that amplification doesn't come (remember the xmas ridge is now fairly flat). with different clusters on the ens i would urge caution - for the time being. lets see where the eps clusters go this evening and tomorrow morning. at the moment, each suite brings more clusters !

and the strat developments look v interesting as we look forward to jan/feb. 

[Polar Maritime]

Ok, Just Model Discussion from here on in please. Report instead of respond, thanks...

Edited December 18, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

The UKMO looks like it would develop a post Christmas northerly judging by its upstream pattern .

That amplified wave working east from the ne Pacific would force the PV away from Greenland .

The high near the UK should retrogress nw through the gap which should develop between that weak shortwave and the troughing over Greenland and it should be drawn to the ridge exiting Canada .

Thats the plan anyway ! It’s still quite a few days away so we just have to hope things fall nicely for a change ! 

Edited December 18, 2020 by nick sussex

[Kasim Awan]

ECM holding strong out to 48 hours. Some relief...

Edited December 18, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Guest]

Hmm, unsurprisingly GFS Ops run is pretty much down the bottom of the pile post Christmas, by no means an outlier but probably an unlikely solution IMO, especially given the length of time the cold is hanging around. 

 

[sheikhy]

Ecm once again different as early as 72 and 96 hours!!!wow!!!!surely would not bet against it!!

[Bartlett High]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm once again different as early as 72 and 96 hours!!!wow!!!!surely would not bet against it!!

Against what?

[Tim Bland]

5 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hmm, unsurprisingly GFS Ops run is pretty much down the bottom of the pile post Christmas, by no means an outlier but probably an unlikely solution IMO, especially given the length of time the cold is hanging around. 

 

Worth noting the red line is average temp for this time of year and the white line is the mean,  very few runs above the average so whether your a glass half full or empty person...the over riding signal is temps well below average from 24th until 1st. At this time of year that means a chance of S S S sleet

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Ecm once again different as early as 72 and 96 hours!!!wow!!!!surely would not bet against it!!

Quite remarkable to see the drama the models are making over that low to the sw .

 

[Skullzrulerz]

8 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Hmm, unsurprisingly GFS Ops run is pretty much down the bottom of the pile post Christmas, by no means an outlier but probably an unlikely solution IMO, especially given the length of time the cold is hanging around. 

 

I have to disagree with you on that 

Yes the OP is on the lower end but it does seem to have a fair amount of support as well 

It all makes for interesting model watching either way 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Quite remarkable to see the drama the models are making over that low to the sw .

 

Aye, looks very mild indeed, air right from the Azores for you

[Daniel*]

The ridge is a bit more stiff!
 

[sheikhy]

Poor ecm early on!!!im gona have to back ecm over ukmo and gfs any day of the week  especially early on!!!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Worth noting the red line is average temp for this time of year and the white line is the mean,  very few runs above the average so whether your a glass half full or empty person...the over riding signal is temps well below average from 24th until 1st. At this time of year that means a chance of S S S sleet

The Ops run is 5-7C below average and would probably be good for snow down here however the mean would just be rain and horrid cold rain. South the of M4 snow very rarely comes from uppers above -5C.  

[Snowmadsam]

1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

The ridge is a bit more stiff!
 

Ooohhh cheeky!!!

just remember folks, calm. Long time to go!

models are still trying to make head or tail with DETAIL. 

[nick sussex]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Aye, looks very mild indeed, air right from the Azores for you

That will be lovely and sunny and warm down here . A nice spell before the northerly blast ! 

[Kasim Awan]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Poor ecm early on!!!im gona have to back ecm over ukmo and gfs any day of the week  especially early on!!!

ECM looks to be in a good position to make a bit more of the Xmas eve northerly than the gfs.

[Frosty.]

Looking at the GEFS 12z mean it looks like crimbo eve / day will be on the cold side with overnight frosts but there may be some wintry excitement between crimbo & new year?!.,or maybe I’m talking out of one of my orifices as usual?!

Edited December 18, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Poor ecm early on!!!im gona have to back ecm over ukmo and gfs any day of the week  especially early on!!!

Is this regarding where the low is too? Or the high pressure? It seems a bit better then last night's ?

[Duane S.]

12 hours missing is a long time in weather modeling, a lot can happen inbetween ECM frames.

Yesterday 12z to today's 12z. Apples for apples...

[Mike Poole]

T144, UKMO, GFS and ECM:

ECM looks somewhere in the middle.

Remember it is the second ridge that delivers not the first.  And there is amplification there.

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Poor ecm early on!!!im gona have to back ecm over ukmo and gfs any day of the week  especially early on!!!

??? it’s better than GFS with cold snap. And UKMO....

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Daniel*

[sheikhy]

But then looks pretty good at 144 hours!!inbetween gfs and ukmo!!

[nick sussex]

Here comes the all important post day 6 output .

Start hiding behind the sofa !  The important bit is what happens between the UK high and the one exiting Canada .

A clean retrogression or will some shortwave energy pop up there .

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

Here comes the all important post day 6 output .

Start hiding behind the sofa !  The important bit is what happens between the UK high and the one exiting Canada .

A clean retrogression or will some shortwave energy pop up there .

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