Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Day 10]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Let's hope my observations around 132-144 for spoiler alerts is just bruising from past experiences because the 192 chart would look quite different - and not in a pleasant way for cold fans.

I'm sure we will see that scenario play out in the ensembles but for now the Op reproducing 3 times in a row has to be a big plus - just need more of the same form ECM and UKMO on board tomorrow morning and it is ramp time.

 

1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

You are absolutely spot on...

Beware of GFS bearing false gifts post 144 hours...

Don't get me wrong here the output is fantastic JUST outside the more reliable time frame (even then it can go T Up), the key area appears to be 120 to 144 as Mucka has pointed out above. Let's hope we get enough of a shortwave trapped between the two areas of merging high pressure's to help prop it up in the Atlantic to allow amplification toward Greenland.

Otherwise we could end up more like this.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Day 10

[Daniel*]

7 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Only people will have forgotten as when the time comes the same posts will be getting made about another ten days time. I get what everyone is saying about patterns, trends etc, but until I see it forecasted on met office, BBC, my iPhone weather app or even the Norwegian met, then I’m not buying it I’m afraid. 
 

Accompanying these excited posts are forecasted highs of 4c in glasgow on 23rd and 24th. Frigid it absolutely is not. Why does everyone fall for this still?

Why are you a member on this forum then, or even reading this mod thread, what do you hope to get out of it? Some really strange posts in here today, and the irony is they come out in greater number when things actually look interesting for once. Remember guys trop vortex all over place so blocking is more likely to feature than normal, big +EAMT which I don’t understand totally but this has kickstarted potential SSW and enhancing blocking as we move into late December / early January. 

[johnholmes]

Just now, johnholmes said:

To my old eyes UK Met and GFS at 144h are as close as two different models are likely to ever get. Along with the fact that they both follow the overall idea from the 500 mb anomaly charts, showing a meridional pattern, then the outlook is fairly solid for cold and mostly dry 24-26 December. Beyond that, yes GFS paints a chart many of you will be delighted with but don't expect it to be  correct even in overall detail. Rather than see if the 18 z frame by frame beyond 120h is identical to it, stand back a bit and check one time with another yesterday for the same model then tomorrow etc. It will give you a much more reliable picture of what MAY happen.

I'll shut up now and leave you to ride the roller coaster so many of you enjoy.

Stay safe all of you.

 

[Ice Day]

8 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Some really strange posts in here today, and the irony is they come out in greater number when things actually look interesting for once. 

I was about to post something similar, so odd!

Anyway, back to the models and another delicious GFS today and not the manky old 6z or pub run either.  The Control also very much on the same page, now to 240

And yes, this is at day 10, but was set by day 7/8.  

Then there's the Strat profile for 29th December.

If this doesn't get your weather juices racing, then really there's no pleasing you.

 

[Uncertainty]

22 minutes ago, Georgina said:

It’s so confusing some people say it’s a terrible run and some are saying it’s a stonker ! I’m not very up on the charts and all they show but I do try and I’m just getting really confused

Georgina - It (The 12z GFS) is most Definitely  a stonker. It has a cold polar northerly with sporadic snow to low levels, it then has a snowy low coming in from the east into cold air later in the run followed by a cold high to the North of the UK allowing for good longevity in the pattern. It also shows a significant warming in the stratosphere which *may alter the course of the rest of the winter towards a colder outcome.

The terrible aspect is because the lead time is out of the range of reliable prediction it’s a fantasy at this stage hence many members are nervous due to countless disappointments in here past.

Right now though, taking the models at face value, it’s a very plausible  outcome.

Hope that helps.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Uncertainy

[Tim Bland]

GEM

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

Years of experience tells me not to get hopes up until John Holmes and all the models agree. Isn't the model that John uses currently showing a westerly set up after Christmas ? However, experience also tells me to start getting interested when Mr Murr and other respected posters start getting excited so it's great to see them contributing.      

[Georgina]

5 minutes ago, Uncertainy said:

Georgina - It (The 12z GFS) is most Definitely  a stonker. It has a cold polar northerly with sporadic snow to low levels, it then has a snowy low coming in from the east into cold air later in the run followed by a cold high to the North of the UK allowing for good longevity in the pattern. It also shows a significant warming in the stratosphere which *may alter the course of the rest of the winter towards a colder outcome.

The terrible aspect is because the lead time issue of the range of reliable prediction it’s a fantasy at this stage hence many members are nervous due to countless disappointments. 

Right now though, taking the models at face value, it’s a very possible outcome.

Hope that helps.

Thankyou so much for taking the time to reply 

[mountain shadow]

23 minutes ago, Georgina said:

It’s so confusing some people say it’s a terrible run and some are saying it’s a stonker ! I’m not very up on the charts and all they show but I do try and I’m just getting really confused

Welcome to the mad house.

If you check where they live that can give an indication. The same run can be good or bad depending where they live.

[Glaswegianblizzard]

20 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Why are you a member on this forum then, or even reading this mod thread, what do you hope to get out of it? Some really strange posts in here today, and the irony is they come out in greater number when things actually look interesting for once. Remember guys trop vortex all over place so blocking is more likely to feature than normal, big +EAMT which I don’t understand totally but this has kickstarted potential SSW and enhancing blocking as we move into late December / early January. 

Because I’m usually only in Scotland thread, but decided to come in and see what was happening in the run up to Xmas. I started following earlier this week when the optimistic posts about Xmas were around, I thought that those posting will know their stuff and that it was worth paying attention to, and it was backed up for a couple of days by forecasting. But this seems to have disappeared or, at best, been put back by days again.

I’m genuinely not trying to be contrary. If anything it’s exasperation at how optimism seems to go the same way, always.

[Guest]

The GFS ensembles which are coming out now are split, certainly down here the Ops run is comfortably in bottom few coldest however by no means an outlier and there's a solid bunch of probably half of the ensembles being similarly cold. But there's a still quite a few members that keep it much, much milder.

Given we still have 4-5days of double figures down here, could hit 15C on Monday the excitement level on the FI output is still only around 2 out of 10. Oven gloves still very much needed when handling the current model output as there's still a significant risk of badly burnt fingers..... 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Guest

[Osbourne One-Nil]

Just now, Glaswegianblizzard said:

I’m genuinely not trying to be contrary. If anything it’s exasperation at how optimism seems to go the same way, always.

Probably best in the moans thread then!

[Allseasons-Si]

Cracking mean by the way at day ten.

[danm]

32 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Why are you a member on this forum then, or even reading this mod thread, what do you hope to get out of it? Some really strange posts in here today, and the irony is they come out in greater number when things actually look interesting for once. Remember guys trop vortex all over place so blocking is more likely to feature than normal, big +EAMT which I don’t understand totally but this has kickstarted potential SSW and enhancing blocking as we move into late December / early January. 

It’s very odd. I think some people are contrary and play it down as a defence mechanism, to not set themselves up for disappointment. Others are just trolls. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by danm

[Weathizard]

It’s not like we are seeing amplification appearing at day 10, I totally get why people are cautious as we’ve all been stung so many bloody times but the key period is now between day 6-8 which is entering towards getting fairly ‘reliable’ once you have the low cutting under the block and the low pressure over us there is only one way that high pressure cell can go...

I don’t think we are chasing rainbows so much with this one, we can see the pot of gold, we might not make it sure but if people are getting irked by the quite understandable excitement, I would suggest the model thread is not for you as we keep this up all winter  

[mountain shadow]

Big ECM coming up.

Will we get the big ridge into Greenland or the flabby flat ridge with energy pouring over the top?

[ALL ABOARD]

Yes great start to the afternoon. 

As others have alluded too an Atlantic ridge that nudges into Greenland is very rare. 

Expecially so at this time of year as the jet is usually at its strongest and any riding is quickly flatterned. 

Usually to get a decent Greenland high, we see low pressure moving north in the Atlantic which produces WAA(warm air advection), this one however is slightly different. 

So fingers crossed, as 100 miles in this scenario is the difference between a winter wonderland or hiring a boat. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Big ECM coming up.

Will we get the big ridge into Greenland or the flabby flat ridge with energy pouring over the top?

Let’s hope the ECM isnt tired....

Edited December 18, 2020 by Weathizard

[Duane S.]

I do understand some people's 'concern'. But I live my life very glass half full and have no intention of changing that any time soon, but each to their own I suppose. Better to have loved and lost and all that...

There is a consistency here, an 'all routes lead to cold' feel about the current chart output that isn't usual at all. We may have to wait another 10 years+ to get this sort of potential again during a Xmas period,  just enjoy the ride folks. It's not just bad luck that we struggle to see a white festive period, late December into January is a traditional period for mild wet and windy. The strat vortex has usually ramped up to Tornadic F5 speeds, coupled with the trop and has become a horrible purple beast. Meridional jet streams are all but a pipe dream. But... this is not the case at all as we head towards Christmas. We have a fair chunk of factors on our side for a change.

And just wow, what timing if we get a decent cold spell (a cold 'snap' is already 95% nailed on) could a toasty strat warming be? That is starting to become quite consistent as well. I wouldn't fancy the deck getting a reshuffle right now with a strong warming but if we could get one early - mid Jan just as tropospheric forcings may be waning, it could be just the tonic for more fun and games heading into Midwinter.

One thing at a time though, come on 2020, YOU OWE US!

[SnoFlakeEar]

43 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Only people will have forgotten as when the time comes the same posts will be getting made about another ten days time. I get what everyone is saying about patterns, trends etc, but until I see it forecasted on met office, BBC, my iPhone weather app or even the Norwegian met, then I’m not buying it I’m afraid. 
 

Accompanying these excited posts are forecasted highs of 4c in glasgow on 23rd and 24th. Frigid it absolutely is not. Why does everyone fall for this still?

If you only believe the BBC, your iPhone weather app  or the Norwegian met then why spend anytime on here where people are genuinely trying to interpret the models and explain what they believe will happen. Might as well stick your finger out the window.

[BlueHedgehog074]

17 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Oven gloves still very much needed when handling the current model output as there's still a significant risk of badly burnt fingers..... 

Not only that, but some of these things are also needed when viewing the outputs

 

@Hullsnow87 Welcome to Netweather

Edited December 18, 2020 by DiagonalRedLine
Adding welcome message

[Hullsnow87]

Hi guys and girls been lurking for a long time and if my memory is correct the epic cold spell of 2010 was picked up a long way out by the gfs Model then it dropped it as has been the case here then picked it back up so all to play for IMO.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Hullsnow87

[Daniel*]

9 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

Because I’m usually only in Scotland thread, but decided to come in and see what was happening in the run up to Xmas. I started following earlier this week when the optimistic posts about Xmas were around, I thought that those posting will know their stuff and that it was worth paying attention to, and it was backed up for a couple of days by forecasting. But this seems to have disappeared or, at best, been put back by days again.

I’m genuinely not trying to be contrary. If anything it’s exasperation at how optimism seems to go the same way, always.

Apps are awful they are as fickle as anything... they were showing a mild Christmas for me, in recent days... daily it has gone colder. If you listened to people on here you might have had good word of that colder snap which was extremely well signalled far in advance, there were quite a few which denied that it would happen, and we would get a wet and mild Xmas hmmm... It was never expected to be anything impressive the snap, the large issue is here people see one crazy op run and somehow they think this suggests the thumbs up, you need to look at ensemble mean before saying the models have really got it wrong, which so far this winter - the real threat of something significant it’s just not been there, contrary to what some have said. Those who watch models religiously understand this, those who occasionally pop in this thread often with something unhelpful to say aren’t as well informed and really I find it offensive I’m not making a pop at you but broadly. It is frustrating.

[Geordiesnow]

6 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Big ECM coming up.

Will we get the big ridge into Greenland or the flabby flat ridge with energy pouring over the top?

There would be a certain irony if the GFS is amplified and the ECM is much flatter given recent history of the past few years! 

All that said, the outlook is certainly a bit better than the last week or two with the jet starting to be more wavey and a colder shot to come before Xmas. We certainly seen worse charts that is for sure but as usual, at that range they will change(for better or worse). 

I think what to look out for is the ECM to hopefully drop that low in the Azores aheading to us in a deep depression as this delays the first northerly and it prevents most of England having a throughly miserable wet and windy day. 

[Uncertainty]

5 minutes ago, s4lancia said:

I do understand some people's 'concern'. But I live my life very glass half full and have no intention of changing that any time soon, but each to their own I suppose. Better to have loved and lost and all that...

There is a consistency here, an 'all routes lead to cold' feel about the current chart output that isn't usual at all. We may have to wait another 10 years+ to get this sort of potential again during a Xmas period,  just enjoy the ride folks. It's not just bad luck that we struggle to see a white festive period, late December into January is a traditional period for mild wet and windy. The strat vortex has usually ramped up to Tornadic F5 speeds, coupled with the trop and has become a horrible purple beast. Meridional jet streams are all but a pipe dream. But... this is not the case at all as we head towards Christmas. We have a fair chunk of factors on our side for a change.

And just wow, what timing if we get a decent cold spell (a cold 'snap' is already 95% nailed on) could a toasty strat warming be? That is starting to become quite consistent as well. I wouldn't fancy the deck getting a reshuffle right now with a strong warming but if we could get one early - mid Jan just as tropospheric forcings may be waning, it could be just the tonic for more fun and games heading into Midwinter.

One thing at a time though, come on 2020, YOU OWE US!

My thoughts all along mate. 

We now have:

- Weak vortex 

- Weak Nina

- Weak solar 

December cold punt then split SSW for the win. It’s always been the jackpot scenario.