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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Summer
  • Location: manchester
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Mild? That certainly won’t feel mild.

I feel anything cold is just going to keep being pushed back as per usual until its all watered down into a sleet one day wonder in the North East

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

At day 8 we don’t have a proper cold flow established yet, but by 192 there is only one way this chart is heading and that’s the U.K. in the freezer - the building blocks are there. 

95080AC1-37F4-4BB1-9F2A-A8C11E983DA1.png

Exactly and the trend is our friend. The detail will of course change but if we can get this chart to 0hrs we are in business. Will the ECM follow that the million dollar question 

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
2 minutes ago, Robin2012 said:

Drifting off topic a second forgive me but check out met Office further outlook just been updated again since earlier very very interesting

Not bad, but no indications of an SSW impacting favourably. 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
9 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

While everyone is enjoying the long term of the GFS run unfortunately Christmas day looks average if not mild in places 

20201218_164004.jpg

Yes it should be lovely and warm with uppers of *checks notes* 0C or lower.

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The GEM is drastically better in it's southwards progression of the low falling a close match to the gfs12z op..

Helped by WAA out of Newfounfland which is key here. 

However, the speed I feel is another vital factor

ECM needs to play ball and decrease the cyclogenesis rates of the low associated with northerly #2. A strong cyclogenesis would whip the low through w/o producing  a healthier development of the northern low flank & cold air injection as per gfs & gem (somewhat). 

All to play for re ecm giving us a SLOWER low attack..

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Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
26 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Let's hope my observations around 132-144 for spoiler alerts is just bruising from past experiences because the 192 chart would look quite different - and not in a pleasant way for cold fans.

I'm sure we will see that scenario play out in the ensembles but for now the Op reproducing 3 times in a row has to be a big plus - just need more of the same form ECM and UKMO on board tomorrow morning and it is ramp time.

You are absolutely spot on...

Beware of GFS bearing false gifts post 144 hours...

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Gfs and gem...

gfsnh-0-240.thumb.png.f0dfc10cbb44674a8345583352f33f9a.pnggemnh-0-240.thumb.png.a6357bbc1b8b959f0f1ed14bac0660b8.png

basically V similar in terms of the overall macro(nh)scale.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
32 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Let's hope my observations around 132-144 for spoiler alerts is just bruising from past experiences because the 192 chart would look quite different - and not in a pleasant way for cold fans.

I'm sure we will see that scenario play out in the ensembles but for now the Op reproducing 3 times in a row has to be a big plus - just need more of the same form ECM and UKMO on board tomorrow morning and it is ramp time.

How many can you see? I reckon 4

5C3D1B32-E318-4B60-84E3-EEAA90C725AA.png

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge
  • Location: Hampstead / Cambridge

The GEFS are substantially better too. A great deal more leaning into Greenland by +174 - will probably be some stonkers (and stinkers) in there. 

Just a reminder: you don't need -15 uppers and a biting easterly for a notable cold and/or snowy spell. I live in Cambridge for goodness sake and have been better served by comparatively slack UK cold pools and northerlies than easterlies in the last two or three cold spells. It's about get the ingredients for snow in place first - worry about where it will come from later! 

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Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

278 members viewing this thread  somethings coming afoot, yeh foot loads of snow and drifts all over the country come boxing day ❄️?️❄️

If only that easy

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Posted
  • Location: Portsmouth
  • Location: Portsmouth
1 minute ago, Weathizard said:

Why do the same people constantly feel the need to remind everyone its at day 8 or 10? Genuine question.

Atlantic amplification is fairly reliably modelled, of course we could still end up being unlucky but you have to say it looks absolutely primed.

Because it's so far off it hardly ever verifies and people end up with egg on their face.  Happens every year, be it hot summer weather or snowy winter forecasts.  

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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire
2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

278 members viewing this thread  somethings coming afoot, yeh foot loads of snow and drifts all over the country come boxing day ❄️?️❄️

I’m sorry but that is just absolutely a load of rubbish. No chart is showing heavy country wide snowfall and widespread snow drifts. If you think that I’m afraid your setting yourself up for a large disappointment. 

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Posted
  • Location: North West
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but the prevailing wind!
  • Location: North West

image.thumb.png.854b8a6440c1b8b4a01d960d52745f4e.png
Yes GEM trending more amplified after a soggy Wednesday, even though it develops the mid week low it’s the upstream amplification a few days later  that’s key to the post Xmas day pattern.

Regardless of Uppers, PPN etc, the fact that 3 successive GFS, the GEM and to a lesser extent ECM op and control get to this point is significant. Given the strat support for a Scandi trough we can now say that some manifestation of this broad pattern is probable. The question is how high can we get this ridge to go? 
 

In other news...

Positive temperatures in the strat alert!

image.thumb.png.830ad5b9ded527b563b486ab21863fdf.png

That is less than two weeks away and a consistent signal (of course not always to this extent...)

Ahead of schedule surely? No complaints from here  though if this run verifies, at either atmospheric level!

Edited by Uncertainy
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Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

spacer.pngspacer.png

The air flow over the warm North Sea and the lack of really cold air masses in the north is the problem we have in Central Europe for a real significant onset of winter within the next 10-12 days. Unfortunately, this is a fact. Sleet showers at 2 degrees floor temperature is not my favorite, tbh...

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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
5 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

278 members viewing this thread  somethings coming afoot, yeh foot loads of snow and drifts all over the country come boxing day ❄️?️❄️

Can you please show me any models charts that are supporting this ? 

 

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