Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Skullzrulerz]

Just now, Vikos said:

To be honest...

I was actually looking at this and seeing the people's responses to this that this is 2010 all over again?

[The Real Snowman]

4 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

Who ordered the 1070mb block then - own up !

I admit it was me and with a murr sausage too. Who wouldn’t?

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

12z would likely yield a satellite image like this..

No. In no way. Ever.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Christmas looks average to me. Another snowless christmas eve/day then?  

Edited December 18, 2020 by 38.7°C

[Matt H]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

To be honest...

The northerly hasn’t even properly set in at this stage though.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Snowy L]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Someone worried that a lot of the cold is going into the Atlantic . From my experience everything drifts slightly further east as we approach T0

A lot of the cold would be in the Atlantic, but a lot of the ppn would be over the UK. When it's a low pressure diving from the Arctic you have a big area where uppers are still cold enough. 

[Allseasons-Si]

I AM GOBSMACKED!!! he! he!

that is three runs on the bounce.

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Weathizard]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

12z would likely yield a satellite image like this..

Corrected it for you, M4 snow shield and all that  

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Vikos said:

No. In no way. Ever.

Have you had some of what the gfs is on

[Midlands Ice Age]

16 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

It’s simply stunning

I think I have found out where Steve Murr really is.....

MIA

[Snowman.]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

No. In no way. Ever.

I can also cherry pick charts to back what I say.

 

[KTtom]

For every action, there is an equal but opposite reaction!

 

[Bullseye]

2 minutes ago, 38.7°C said:

Christmas looks average to me. Another snowless christmas eve/day then?  

Much prefer upcoming Xmas Eve/Day compared to recent years (if it holds) where temperatures reached easily double figures. And, very rarely in UK do we get white Christmas. 

[Skullzrulerz]

While everyone is enjoying the long term of the GFS run unfortunately Christmas day looks average if not mild in places 

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, Skullzrulerz said:

While everyone is enjoying the long term of the GFS run unfortunately Christmas day looks average if not mild in places 

Mild? That certainly won’t feel mild.

[terrier]

6 minutes ago, Vikos said:

To be honest...

Yes underwhelming for sure 8c doesn’t spell snowmageddon to me. All this talk of the gfs tonight been 2010 is all pie in the sky. This chart just shows why we need to remain firmly grounded. 

[Matt H]

Big improvement on the GEM 12z at t198 compared to t204 on the 00z.

00z:

:

12z:

Edited December 18, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Vikos]

8 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

I can also cherry pick charts to back what I say.

 

When he postet it, GFS 12z only was at 192h or so... your chart is FI, mine is midterm with following dew points... so show me how it will snow anywhere below 200m

Edited December 18, 2020 by Vikos

[sebastiaan1973]

GEM turns to GFS. No real cold air tough.

[Allseasons-Si]

This is a great run so far...

as i stated earlier,heights to the west and NE forcing the trough south=2010 redux.

[Mucka]

1 minute ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

GEM turns to GFS. No real cold air tough.

850's are broken on GEM.

[Weathizard]

2 minutes ago, terrier said:

Yes underwhelming for sure 8c doesn’t spell snowmageddon to me. All this talk of the gfs tonight been 2010 is all pie in the sky. This chart just shows why we need to remain firmly grounded. 

At day 8 we don’t have a proper cold flow established yet, but by 192 there is only one way this chart is heading and that’s the U.K. in the freezer - the building blocks are there. 

[kold weather]

Great runs, I would like to see a shift East though to some extent, we run the risk of the colder stuff funneling into the Atlantic if we end up with a rounder LP as per GEM and 00z ECM.

However the trend is there and looking good.

27th is easily cold enough snow on GFS, your having a (Xmas) bubble if you think that's not the case!

Edited December 18, 2020 by kold weather

[Anthony Burden]

This site will be electric after that stunning gfs 12z  Greenland high to the left Russian to the right 

and Arctic low to the centre.If any where near correct Lots and Lots of the white stuff.

 

[daz_4]

Quick glance at 12z and the pattern is, once again, too west in FI. I hope this won't verify.