Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Drifter]

3 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

UKMO 12z 24th Dec

A bitterly cold Christmas Eve if the UKMO 12z is correct 

 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Vikos said:

ICON was never designed for long-term forecasts, its power is in the 7 day range. It produces 900gb data for a 7-day-output

 Vorsprung Durch Technik It ain’t 

 

gfs t192

[Glaswegianblizzard]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Here it comes... 2010 redux. Boxing day evening now the marker.

You mean it’s pushed back another day or two, like it always does?

[Matt H]

3 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

You mean it’s pushed back another day or two, like it always does?

You’ve got to be kidding me, I knew there would be someone moaning.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Skullzrulerz]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs saying it dont matter what you do shortwave at 144 hours!!i will insert myself into greenland if i want to ❄

Although that is good it is something that has to be watched 

Seems to be a good run so far if else 

[mountain shadow]

1060mb over Greenland and climbing.

[That ECM]

Just now, Glaswegianblizzard said:

You mean it’s pushed back another day or two, like it always does?

Considering how far out, consistency is very good

[Drifter]

The Viagra run. 

[Vikos]

1 minute ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

You mean it’s pushed back another day or two, like it always does?

 

Diagnosis: delayeritis je-ef-esus retardus

[Allseasons-Si]

Hi all,it's nice to see this thread running smoothly,come on guys we are all in this nice thread together

just to start with,i am done at work now until the 4th Jan(yipeeee) as i have booked next week off

anyway's

i have just viewed the overnight/this mornings models and i nearly spat my coffee out lol ,great model output to be discussing ATM

Looking at the EPS at day ten,you can see those two huge blocks to the west and NE with a trough near to our E and some support for lower height's underneath the block out in the Atlantic,the trough to our east has nowhere to go but on a nw-se trajectory thanks to both of these blocks and in a similar fashion to what we had the other week 

i'd better start viewing the 12z coming out and the gfs is going for it again with a big amplified pattern in the Atlantic.

"KEEP CALM GUYS",it's only the weather

[Drifter]

2 minutes ago, Glaswegianblizzard said:

You mean it’s pushed back another day or two, like it always does?

Even worse, he means Boxing Day 2021. 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs saying it dont matter what you do shortwave at 144 hours!!i will insert myself into greenland if i want to ❄

Let's hope my observations around 132-144 for spoiler alerts is just bruising from past experiences because the 192 chart would look quite different - and not in a pleasant way for cold fans.

I'm sure we will see that scenario play out in the ensembles but for now the Op reproducing 3 times in a row has to be a big plus - just need more of the same form ECM and UKMO on board tomorrow morning and it is ramp time.

[sheikhy]

Just now, Mucka said:

Let's hope my observations around 132-144 for spoiler alerts is just bruising from past experiences because the 192 chart would look quite different - and not in a pleasant way for cold fans.

I'm sure we will see that scenario play out in the ensembles but for now the Op reproducing 3 times in a row has to be a big plus - just need more of the same form ECM and UKMO on board tomorrow morning and it is ramp time.

Mate these are december 2010 mouth watering charts right now!!3 gfs runs in a row where its been the same pattern over and over is unheard of now a days!!!!BUT will it happen?like you say we have been bitten far too many times over the years

[Matt H]

Good afternoon to the people that have been insisting that it’ll be zonal all the way through until Spring next year.

[Cold Winter]

This is just pure filth from the 12z GFS. Glorious!

Edited December 18, 2020 by Cold Winter

[Zak M]

Look at those uppers on the GFS... shift it 300 miles east and we would see the -12c isotherm knocking on the door of Scotland...

   

Edited December 18, 2020 by Zak M

[Weathizard]

And people wonder why some are getting over excited, this kind of chart is rarer than my steak.

[That ECM]

Someone worried that a lot of the cold is going into the Atlantic . From my experience everything drifts slightly further east as we approach T0

[SMU]

Afternoon All- 

Im sure there will be some Euphoria from the 12Z GFS

A couple of interesting points

* Watch out for a shallow trough from the North on Christmas eve bringing Snow to Scotland.

* If we do get this amazing jet profile at 168 the its Greenland high all the way...

A GH profiled at just 7 days > Will need Euro support...

 

[lorenzo]

Who ordered the 1070mb block then - own up !

[Kasim Awan]

12z would likely yield a satellite image like this..

[Daniel*]

OMFG! This run is giving December 2010 a run for its money...

what’s even more mental broadly very similar to 00z and 06z this will either result in GFS finest hour or darkest day....

[Vikos]

To be honest...

[Uncertainty]

GFS Looks really, really good on the anomalies

Day 8... 

Day 10!

“It’ll never happen”

They said Leicester would never win the league...

[Methuselah]

Gee whizzo, I like the look of this!

     

Could even  make one's dreams turn to snow!