Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[Battleground Snow]

Nice control run for NYE.

Still lots of potential outcomes via ensembles as others have mentioned.

That low out of the ESB is providing big swings in the models.

On to the 12z runs we go!

[MATTWOLVES 3]

3 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Finally a down to earth post, some people just set them selves up for a massive fall, yes of course we all want cold and snow but let’s be realistic here, after all it is the uk

This is the big problem though...its been so long since we last experienced proper cold,some just won't have it..Even if it comes up and bites em on the ar@e they still won't be convinced. Even if we had cross model agreement for a significant cold snap starting tomorrow,some would still stay...ill believe it when I see it...we have to start somewhere.

 

 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[markw2680]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES said:

This is the big problem though...its been so long since we last experienced cold,some just won't have it..Even if it comes up and bites em on the ar@e they still won't be convinced.

They will when they look outside to heavy rain lol.

let’s just look at the big picture at this stage.. yes it’s starting to look very interesting and could well get pretty cold, we don’t no how cold or whether there will be white stuff about frost or snow, we also haven’t a clue as yet how long it may last, after all the models flip about slightly

[mushymanrob]

These operational runs do have anomaly support which does add weight to them being something like correct, or close. Chances of a cold snowy spell must be very high..

 

[Portsmouth Sun]

Unfortunately the hyperbolic nonsense spouted about D10 charts that never verify get in the way of some informative posts. Looking ahead at what is developing is a cooling down from the NW around Christmas Day. What follows could very well be a screaming northerly as shown in unreliable timeframe charts or a return to something milder from the Atlantic.  A computer is never going to predict what mother nature has in store. 

[Day 10]

I think most people on here know, the second part of any GFS/ECM run isn't to be taken so literally otherwise the word CAVEAT would be used in every sentence. People are allowed to get carried away and have a bit of fun with the second half of a run, it's part of the enjoyment (for most anyway).

[Bricriu]

2 hours ago, johnholmes said:

As it has been for 3-4 days now NOAA 500 mb anomaly remains committed to the meridional pattern. Its 8-14 showing the first signs of this starting to turn more westerly!

Climate Prediction Center - 6-10 Day 500mb Outlook

WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV

 

 

Well if I get a foot of snow in the next 10- 14 days, i can live with a more westerly influence again. Joking aside,  I'd be happy just to see  a overnight covering of snow, anything else would be a bonus!

[Weathizard]

Yeah, imagine people being excited when seeing charts like this:

 

 

 

How shocking.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Weathizard

[Skullzrulerz]

10 minutes ago, markw2680 said:

Finally a down to earth post, some people just set them selves up for a massive fall, yes of course we all want cold and snow but let’s be realistic here, after all it is the uk

You get classed as the Grinch if you're being a realist

I'm fully aware that most of us are quite excited for some cold and snow weather in the coming days and weeks and that's fine I respect that 

I do as well but I also know fully well the past few years we have been in this same position and what happens every single time don't we ? 

Thankfully with upgrades in later runs we can hopefully we can get this weather but I remain very Skeptical at the moment due to huge uncertainty in the short term

 

[Weather-history]

3 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

These operational runs do have anomaly support which does add weight to them being something like correct, or close. Chances of a cold snowy spell must be very high..

 

Isn't that anomaly chart  you posted just of the operational run?

Should we be looking at the mean anomaly chart?

[DavidS]

6 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Isn't that anomaly chart  you posted just of the operational run?

Should we be looking at the mean anomaly chart?

The Mean looks good too 

[Vikos]

I think an admin should do some cleanup in here...

Edited December 18, 2020 by Osbourne One-Nil
sorted.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

You get classed as the Grinch if you're being a realist

I'm fully aware that most of us are quite excited for some cold and snow weather in the coming days and weeks and that's fine I respect that 

I do as well but I also know fully well the past few years we have been in this same position and what happens every single time don't we ? 

Thankfully with upgrades in later runs we can hopefully we can get this weather but I remain very Skeptical at the moment due to huge uncertainty in the short term

 

Mate thats understandable,but you can't base forecasts on events that have taken place in the last few years..Every year is potentially different from the previous,and alot and can and will change.If we base all our forecasts on previous failed years,there would be little point in all the great posters coming on here to nail a winter blast down.

[swebby]

3 hours ago, Day 10 said:

Since we are on page 63, I'll keep the above going with this lovely chart from the control at Day 10.

I know this is the hunt for cold thread (i've no problem with that) so this will probably get lost in the noise but a question for the likes of those trained in looking at these charts, e.g. @johnholmes etc:-

Having looked at the 0Z ECM output for post Xmas, and using Day 10's post above of the GEFs at the same period as an illustration.

Would this low that forms off the eastern tip of Greenland and then, whilst deepening, drops down into the North Sea ending up between East Anglia and Holland be a major flood risk for Eastern England and the Low Countries?  I want snow as much as anyone else on here but to my untrained eye, some of these charts look particularly worrisome for north sea coastal communities?

[Matt H]

18 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Yeah, imagine people being excited when seeing charts like this:

 

 

 

How shocking.

It's like being lectured by Chris Whitty with some of the comments in here. Of course caution is needed but I don't see anything wrong with people admiring the model output together, especially after the grim year we have had with the pandemic.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[snowlessayr]

18 minutes ago, Portsmouth Sun said:

Unfortunately the hyperbolic nonsense spouted about D10 charts that never verify get in the way of some informative posts. Looking ahead at what is developing is a cooling down from the NW around Christmas Day. What follows could very well be a screaming northerly as shown in unreliable timeframe charts or a return to something milder from the Atlantic.  A computer is never going to predict what mother nature has in store. 

If you think a computer can never predict what is going to happen then you are clearly in the wrong place. You do realise that this is is model output discussion

More on topic although the 06z wasn't as good as the 00z still some snow about. The ensembles are still a bit all over the shot which is understandable at this range, still 10x more exciting than last year 

[MattStoke]

24 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

This is the big problem though...its been so long since we last experienced proper cold,some just won't have it..Even if it comes up and bites em on the ar@e they still won't be convinced. Even if we had cross model agreement for a significant cold snap starting tomorrow,some would still stay...ill believe it when I see it...we have to start somewhere.

 

 

 

That would be a valid point if we had any cross model support for widespread low level snow anywhere near the reliable time frame, but we don't. 

Weather prediction is supposed to be on analysis of data and probabilities, not emotion. I realise people are posting more casually in here rather than putting together a professional forecast, but cycle of (positive) exaggerations followed by doom and gloom really gets tiresome. 

We have some nice synoptics that could bring colder weather, and that brings the potential of wintry precipitation for some, but the exaggerations are needless. 

[Polar Maritime]

Let's keep to sensible Model Output Discussion please in here, Nothing wrong with a little humour within a post related to the topic. The forum is obviously getting busy now because of the interesting synoptics so we don't want good posts getting lost amongst the noise..

Thanks all, please continue

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Just now, Polar Maritime said:

Let's keep to sensible Model Output Discussion please in here, Nothing wrong with a little humour within a post related to the topic. The forum is obviously getting busy now because of the interesting synoptics so we don't want good posts getting lost amongst the noise..

Thanks all, please continue

Thanks PM,another level headed post from you,and good to see you keeping the thread running smoothly...I think I'm gonna put a merry Xmas icon too every poster on the page,just to calm the situation.. Like you say interesting sypnotics,and much better than we have been used too.

[Weathizard]

The reason for excitement is we haven’t seen winter charts like this in bloody years, particularly in this period of winter that’s usually Atlantic driver weather, the building blocks for this ridge are coming into a reliable timeframe now and so understandable excitement is building.

The fact this very strong ridge is building within a relatively reliable timeframe now and appearing consistently is enough for me. 
 

The NW model thread will never change and rightly so, I love it when there’s a great run coming out and everyone is going mad - we all know it won’t verify but we all still love the chase, part of the fun of being on here.

But sometimes... they do verify. ️ 

[Frosty.]

I’m so much excited by the GEFS 6z..well, here is my evidence!

Edited December 18, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Kentspur]

1 hour ago, MATTWOLVES said:

I can't keep up with this place...nearly 15 pages since I last checked.. I mentioned last nights EC46 mean and how it seems reluctant to change the pattern at anytime over several weeks...hmmmm...not so sure about that...The control run is bringing in some serious cold in the second half of January.. we have Heights extending from Greenland to scandy and some proper cold locked in, Could it be onto something!! An SSW early next month for instance...I will be keeping an eye on the control run in the coming days,but it sure looks good later..

 

I'm glad youve changed your mind after I uploaded the EC46 charts and you dismisses my optimistic thoughts

[johnholmes]

26 minutes ago, swebby said:

I know this is the hunt for cold thread (i've no problem with that) so this will probably get lost in the noise but a question for the likes of those trained in looking at these charts, e.g. @johnholmes etc:-

Having looked at the 0Z ECM output for post Xmas, and using Day 10's post above of the GEFs at the same period as an illustration.

Would this low that forms off the eastern tip of Greenland and then, whilst deepening, drops down into the North Sea ending up between East Anglia and Holland be a major flood risk for Eastern England and the Low Countries?  I want snow as much as anyone else on here but to my untrained eye, some of these charts look particularly worrisome for north sea coastal communities?

Its a bit like my golf, IF.

IF a deep low, a bit like on one run is predicted to be in the N Sea with the gradient predicted, and tides are high due to the moon etc, then, yes flooding could e a problem.

Looking at the synoptic outputs, EC and GFS do 'seem' to be playing around with upper air patterns that are not dissimilar to the predicted 500 mb patterns on my oft used 500 mb anomaly charts. Some kind of upper flow from a noth of west direction with surface devlopments changing the direction of flow, but overall the flow is likely to be from north of west. Just what the actual surface pattern will be on any particular time in the next 4-5 days is far from clear. Enjoy the ride those that so enjoy times like this with the possibility of cold and snow, even if it does not happen. For those, perhaps new to this 'mad house' take time to discover how to 'read' the charts and posters angle on them. It will turn colder after the weekend. I suspect with a ridge which tends to suggest mostly dry weather but I could be wrong!

 

Enjoy the fun.

[Vikos]

Just for discussion, the +72h , the +240h and +360h EC Clusters

edit +192h

Cluster analysies from German DWD

Translated to Englisch by google:

 

EPS: The smoke plumes for representative places in Germany indicate the Temperature profile 850 hPa shows a comparatively homogeneous profile. On the strong WLA (Warm Air Addv.) at the beginning of the week occurs in all from the middle of the week Parts of the country a stronger cooling. This is associated with a reduction of the geopotential (trough passage). The one with the WLA is also clearly recognizable associated rainfall activity in the center of the country while it is in the south remains mostly dry during this period.

CLUSTER: +120 ... 168h: There are two clusters that are almost equally distributed. C1 tends more towards the positive NAO pattern, C2 towards the Atlantic ridge. One can but read from it that a trough situation on Christmas days is right is likely (according to ECMWF).

 

+192 ... 240h: Now 5 clusters have to be handled, the completely different ones Have flow patterns. The main and control runs are in C4, the Trough situation extended over Central Europe (but only 8 members). C1 with 13 Membern lets the trough (less pronounced) withdraw more quickly to the east and follow a flat back. Reliable statements can therefore be made for the days not to be made after Christmas.

 

 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Vikos
monkey

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Just for discussion, the +72h , the +240h and +360h EC Clusters

Cluster analysies from German DWD

Translated to Englisch by google:

 

EPS: The smoke plumes for representative places in Germany indicate the Temperature profile 850 hPa shows a comparatively homogeneous profile. On the strong WLA (Warm Air Addv.) at the beginning of the week occurs in all from the middle of the week Parts of the country a stronger cooling. This is associated with a reduction of the geopotential (trough passage). The one with the WLA is also clearly recognizable associated rainfall activity in the center of the country while it is in the south remains mostly dry during this period.

CLUSTER: +120 ... 168h: There are two clusters that are almost equally distributed. C1 tends more towards the positive NAO pattern, C2 towards the Atlantic ridge. One can but read from it that a trough situation on Christmas days is right is likely (according to ECMWF).

 

+192 ... 240h: Now 5 clusters have to be handled, the completely different ones Have flow patterns. The main and control runs are in C4, the Trough situation extended over Central Europe (but only 8 members). C1 with 13 Membern lets the trough (less pronounced) withdraw more quickly to the east and follow a flat back. Reliable statements can therefore be made for the days not to be made after Christmas.

 

 

Sorry I cannot add any more reactions today..but Vikos..great post, hell I love Germany, I have German relatives...anyway, enough waffle already!...I am veery happy with the trends sofa today (especially the Gfs 0z op..omg)....it looks like a colder spell is on the way..wunderbar..Ja..das ist gut..Ja..das wetter ist gut Ja!

Edited December 18, 2020 by Jon Snow