Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas

[warrenb]

3 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Don't like this run especially with the PV setting shop in Greenland 

You do know where Greenland is don't you.

[Drifter]

16 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS evolution to the Promised Land relies on that shortwave near Newfoundland not moving east and phasing with the low near the UK.

 

Well now we all know what will happen in the next couple of days. Remember, if it can go wrong, it will go wrong!

[chris55]

(In the style of baby Yoda)

 

”Flat, the pattern is not”

 

[Ali1977]

I take the 00z and raise you - snowier than the earlier run by day 9

[Day 10]

Just now, radiohead said:

A snow event for many areas starting on the evening of the 26th on the 06Z GFS

Yes exactly, plenty of UK wide snow opportunities with that kind of setup.

With the kind of year 2020 has been you watch it go out with a bang 'The Great British Blizzard of 2020'

[Jason M]

9 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

It’s important to get the energy heading se not south to ensure the UK ends up with the coldest air .

So you want the centre  of the low sufficiently to the se allowing a very cold ne flow on its northern flank .

 

Yep, this run shows the problem yet again. The airmass associated with the 'northerly' is PM and not Arctic so snow will need altitude (albeit not much). 850s a bit too warm at days 8&9 and Theta values a bit too high as well. A slightly better 850 profile to our NE though so might evolve cold enough on this run but we are still looking at day 10. 

528 Dam line clears south coast at 216 hours. So maybe mix of rain / sleet / wet snow on low ground. 

Edited December 18, 2020 by Jason M

[Ice Day]

240 6z vs 0z.  Either option would be absolutely superb!

    

[terrier]

Some really nice looking output from the gfs & ecm this morning but why is it always at +8 days away. And one doubt I do have is why aren’t the met office on board with these crazy looking runs we are seeing. So until we see them come on board we need to keep our feet firmly on the ground. Because as we all know if it can go wrong for the U.K. it normally will. I’m taking these charts with a huge pinch of salt or grit which ever you prefer lol. 

[ALL ABOARD]

All theoretical of course but this run may end with a major snow storm. 

Low skirting around the fading Atlantic ridge into the cold air situated over the UK. 

All in all a good run for those of a wintery disposition.

 

[alexisj9]

15 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Don't like this run especially with the PV setting shop in Greenland 

It then comes here. Completely different at this stage to the twelve z, so just fantasy charts on both, nice eye candy.

[Vikos]

EC clusters +240h

[Methuselah]

Cracking Day 10!

    

[Tim Bland]

Even a touch of the white stuff south of the M4 on this run! 

[chionomaniac]

12 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

All I am left thinking is that there is plenty of time for this to improve further still with further runs

[TSNWK]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

240 6z vs 0z.  Either option would be absolutely superb!

    

Both look great synoptic wise. Decisions decisions A

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

What do you reckon about the strat? - have you seen those extreme temperatures right up top, that would surely be record breaking for temperature, all we need is that to translate into -ve u winds lower down and wollop - job done.

Edited December 18, 2020 by feb1991blizzard

[NewEra21]

My only minor gripe is all the serious cold is just out of reach and going into the Atlantic. If the whole pattern was just a touch futher E/SE, especially in Europe. We'd be in those biting cold NEly winds.

But I know that's just being super picky, and it's not wise to wish the pattern too far East/SE as before we know it we'd have the Greenland high over the top of us instead

[ICE COLD]

Another exciting run from the 6z . This is now well under T300 . Surely the pv has to come down sooner rather than later ? 

[Nick F]

Some big differences GFS vs EC/UKMO/GEM over the Atlantic Day 6 / Xmas Eve - GFS a lot flatter with upper flow over far N Atl. Seems to do with handling of upper shortwave trough coming out of Canada / NE USA and how surface lows following this trough interact / phase with it. 

Chilly/cold for Xmas Eve / Day whatever way you cut it, but frost likely the white stuff most will see. What's more interesting are developments between Christmas and New Year, where much greater amplification is being signalled to build over the Atlantic while upper vortex expands over Scandinavia. But a great deal of uncertainty.

[Ice Day]

Good to see the Control is climbing aboard at 180, an improvement vs it's 0z output

6z  0z 

I totally understand the 'why is it always at day 10' comments, however what I would say is that if we get to here at day 7.5, IMO there's only one way it's going thereafter!  So we are no longer looking deep into FI. 

That said, this is the UK and we've been bitten inside 72 hours before, so I'll be tempering my own expectations for a few days yet!

[Day_9]

38 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Erm ......

19th December 1984, 19th December 2020 .... (For the younger members, January and February 1985 saw a lot of cold snowy weather)

 

We were off school for weeks, just after Christmas as I recall, 5’ icicles off the side of the house, power cuts, the lot

[rug]

21 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Even a touch of the white stuff south of the M4 on this run! 

I don’t hate the M4 anymore.

[Day_9]

30 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

240 6z vs 0z.  Either option would be absolutely superb!

    

COBRA charts

[Jason M]

The GFS 06 run is the computer equivalent of a pig with lipstick. Looks dramatic but delivers nothing but snow to high ground and a few frosts. In fairness we can probably ignore anything after day 9 as its no more likely to verify than the 00Z was. The irony is that the distinctly non dramatic easterly that occurs by day 13 is by far the coldest chart.

All of that said, the situation is not hopeless by any means. We are not stuck with a slug over Spain and a rampant PV and things do have scope to improve.

Edited December 18, 2020 by Jason M

[nick sussex]

The government should be praying for a cold snowy festive period .

Far better for people to either be stuck at home and not mixing or as in members here outside playing in the snow !