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Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas


Paul

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Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

So much going on this morning! 
 

Uncertainty early on with the infamous Azores low! This will have a bearing on Xmas period and how Cold and frosty it is, it retrogresses somewhat on the UKMO (and GFS) propping up the North Atlantic Ridge slowing the topple. This would allow the settled cold conditions to last through Xmas day IMO 

F5BA98B5-AF41-4A0B-BDFF-06FE0B0D2BEB.thumb.png.f3223a922d7534c428e10e81c1ea55cb.png

 

Then we have this new trend of the high retrogressing up into Greenland, and the sublime GFS 00z version!

67A3C5EF-A176-4789-8F42-C1401051A9C3.thumb.png.644468f794513a1178dab43aa0599ce9.png

 

5107420C-BF69-41EB-8CA7-04F24FF0F1A2.thumb.png.830945aea734f6f64fc7d17dda02b8d7.png
 

Lets see what the 6z serves up  

 

 

 

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Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
22 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

It is still important for the short term though. But yes looking ahead, always look left.

which is precisely what the 500 mb charts allow us to do-honest

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Only just viewed the overnight runs....... for the first time this winter, it's time for me to utter those famous words, 'flippin 'eck Tucker' (one for the kids there).  It's comes to something where a chart like the 240 ECM gets barely a mention!

image.thumb.png.976131e72872d71b41be3e6ad0dde706.png

The 6z is getting to the critical stage, will it make it?

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

The GFS evolution to the Promised Land relies on that shortwave near Newfoundland not moving east and phasing with the low near the UK.

In the 00hrs the high retrogresses through the gap between those .

The upstream pattern looks okay over the USA as that amplified wave moves east , if there’s phasing that will complicate things .

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Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
5 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Reload from the North inbound - it’s a gift from God this one!!

EB12418B-9C16-4B79-9CFF-2C8259F98A1F.png

That New Years Eve chart looks very similar to New Years Eve 1978:

image.thumb.png.e46f83944c36deff0fe34e22403342ca.png

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The GFS evolution to the Promised Land relies on that shortwave near Newfoundland not moving east and phasing with the low near the UK.

In the 00hrs the high retrogresses through the gap between those .

The upstream pattern looks okay over the USA as that amplified wave moves east , if there’s phasing that will complicate things .

The 06z looks identical to 00z!!!something is happening nick!!massive changes at 168 hours compared to yesterday!!!those atlantic heights came out of no where!!reminnds me of the 2010 scenario!!

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Just now, sheikhy said:

The 06z looks identical to 00z!!!something is happening nick!!massive changes at 168 hours compared to yesterday!!!those atlantic heights came out of no where!!reminnds me of the 2010 scenario!!

It’s all very exciting but I suspect those with not much grey hair will end up with a lot more by the end of the current model saga ! 

Very stressful for coldies especially as recent winters have been utter rubbish for cold and snow .

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

Off we go again...

E38B3144-CA74-48FC-AFEA-D40A83BEA4DE.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside

Looking good again, just a variation of a cold looking theme. Plus we are ticking towards mid-term instead of long term.

gfsnh-0-180.thumb.png.c01617a64363d724b48d4b1ed4db4d3f.png

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Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Obviously diff than earlier but still looking promising

51D6FF05-11D2-4E6F-A555-15EC204FA986.png

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

Looking at the angle of the lows comming out of Canada up the west of Greenland, there is another spectacular day 10 chart comming up!

GFSOPEU06_186_1.png

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

Someone in the minute will moan that the northerly takes a few hours longer to set in and declare that this cold spell opportunity is over.

DD251426-0365-423D-84E4-3E76C6020AA2.png

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol

Way into the long-term by now, but we now have 1055hpa high across Greenland, could be a bit of a stonker going forward from T192.

T192.thumb.png.5260953b64ccf89ffd6f16948eebc052.png

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Posted
  • Location: chellaston, derby
  • Weather Preferences: The Actual Weather ..... not fantasy.
  • Location: chellaston, derby

Erm ......

19th December 1984, 19th December 2020 .... (For the younger members, January and February 1985 saw a lot of cold snowy weather)

 

dec84.jpg

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth

Great to see a continuation of a theme. Normal caveats blah blah

E7381520-5068-4AC1-A1F0-624A4C6BA37B.png

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

It’s important to get the energy heading se not south to ensure the UK ends up with the coldest air .

So you want the centre  of the low sufficiently to the se allowing a very cold ne flow on its northern flank .

 

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

Don't like this run especially with the PV setting shop in Greenland 

If this is the PV setting up shop in Greenland then I’m the Pope.

4F374D55-4C5F-42C2-8F84-73A0DAE30448.png

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