Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - Closing in on Christmas


Paul

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

 Looks like the whole of the TPV is about to descend on us...jeez

image.thumb.png.954d3d856df6ca61a5f7dc1aeeb75984.png

All we need now is for it to be a mild outlier in the ensembles and the dream will be complete and we can awaken back to reality. 

As it happens the control run is almost an action replay out to FI

gensnh-0-1-192.png

Edited by Mucka
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
1 minute ago, Mucka said:

All we need now is for it to be a mild outlier in the ensembles and the dream will be complete and we can awaken back to reality. 

Thing is, it's entirely plausible, albeit not too likely. The stakes are that high.

Strat done for again by end of FI btw

image.thumb.png.6ef556a8b2d90c2ea757d9452a869b9c.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine, thunder, hail & heavy snow
  • Location: Solihull, Midlands. (Formerly DRL)

Sounds like the GFS must have had an early morning in the pub lol. Great Easterly it’s unearthed in FI (which becomes more Northerly eventually) despite the 850 hPa temperatures a little underwhelming. But cold enough for some sleet or snow showers at times from the East, and some longer spells of wintry weather, particularly across the South.

Edited by DiagonalRedLine
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder , Lightning , Snow , Blizzards
  • Location: North East

Basically the 00z has finally had enough of being called the ‘downgrade run’ and has spat out a historical masterpiece ! 
 

Fully enjoyable run  

 

what happened out west certainly was the best this morning 

Edited by Raythan
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
25 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

So,UKMO GFS and ICON trap the low.

Over to EC...

Yep that would be a huge full house. Nw oz also shows the PV to the east as you mentioned. All in fi but great to see

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

The GFS does seem more blocked that many ENS at 192, however the mean still looks full of that word “potential” and the control looks likely to be another BOOOOM

 

Going off this mornings runs this GFS run does look achievable

6577C413-5452-4533-AB0B-A46467810115.png

3B330AD7-2AA1-41B2-AEAC-4B065B8EA47D.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Thing is, it's entirely plausible, albeit not too likely. The stakes are that high.

Strat done for again by end of FI btw

image.thumb.png.6ef556a8b2d90c2ea757d9452a869b9c.png

Oh it is definitely plausible, unfortunately so are the messy Atlantic dominated runs.

I am a little more optimistic than would be ordinarily but let's see the clean phasing with the trough and delicious timing of that low with the increased amplification upstream repeated a few runs before getting the skates out

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

I know 120 is probably too far away, but looking ahead to the latest 180 charts... 

FYI last night's excitement resulted in insomnia and I can see today isn't going to help on that score. 

 

iconnh-0-180 (1).png

gemnh-0-180.png

gfsnh-0-180 (1).png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
8 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

 Looks like the whole of the TPV is about to descend on us...jeez

image.thumb.png.954d3d856df6ca61a5f7dc1aeeb75984.png

There is going to be a lot of laptops, iPhones and iPads covered in tea and coffee this morning when coldies view this.

D4E332E8-FE20-4D43-8D6A-913429696EBB.jpeg

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Good lord! Something’s going on here.... where is this extra push in blocking coming from? Even other models are making out more of feature of blocking to west rather than flattening out. It’s not MJO the +EAMT? 

A197FF70-4229-4228-8BF7-1B39E4A66F08.thumb.png.8b427724427a7eed0bbc9cad4b328d7b.pngF7EE31DA-2016-4FB0-91CF-79228A5B7234.thumb.png.70d31b5679f6cb331932a62ad6c21020.pngE87073D2-E1FF-4750-B45C-5D48064D09DA.thumb.png.ee2ea307e3ae5a6ae81e7e9fb2717bfb.png010B08D0-7AEE-4C9F-BB78-F56DF23E05C2.thumb.png.3789d4136f4ace0d4e0f7f3381a2f2f4.png

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Warm Summer. Snowy Winter.
  • Location: Kildare, Ireland. 76m asl

Prob a stupid question but why if these charts are so good does it not show much snow when you click on the precipitation tab on meteociel?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL

Day 10 control looks very similar to the Op which is pretty amazing considering , a big ECM coming up!!  

DDF23275-71EC-4719-BB92-E2C879B69002.png

DE8625E3-AC0C-4302-BE67-DE9F0D8C6A1B.png

Edited by Ali1977
  • Like 3
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.

Wow... Turning into a true Greenland High in Fl...

It's been a few years since we have seen one if it verifies!

 

Edited by AdrianHull
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 control looks similar to the Op, a big ECM coming up!!  

DDF23275-71EC-4719-BB92-E2C879B69002.png

Money on a UKMO backtrack just for giggles?  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
1 hour ago, CreweCold said:

GFS stunner alert

image.thumb.png.1e95069d487b0b7405763b86a3c9329d.png

What a day to be up early! What a belter! 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
6 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Prob a stupid question but why if these charts are so good does it not show much snow when you click on the precipitation tab on meteociel?

It does!!

image.thumb.png.ac70ae432743537b80ff91bae7f93cfb.png

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
4 minutes ago, Griff said:

Money on a UKMO backtrack just for giggles?  

The other GFS ENS aren’t as extreme as the Op and control , but with the resolutions of the 2 showing the Greeny block being similar I take a little crumb of comfort - but we need ECM support for sure, without it I fear a reset on the next run!!

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
8 minutes ago, O'Maille80 said:

Prob a stupid question but why if these charts are so good does it not show much snow when you click on the precipitation tab on meteociel?

The snow forecasts on an Easterly feed longer range are poor, the models do t take into account the moisture picked up off the North Sea. The East and central belts of the U.K. would be plastered off this run!! 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

 

Ukmo... 

568753351_UN144-21(2).thumb.gif.7df3a09baea2a1e480074200980159f2.gif

Vs

GFS 

951606306_gfsnh-0-144(4).thumb.png.0d571eb8d2025334dd6c20dfcfdda364.png

 

14 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 10 control looks similar to the Op, a big ECM coming up!!  

DDF23275-71EC-4719-BB92-E2C879B69002.png

 

Edited by Griff
  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...